POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SWITZERLAND VS. BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?

YES · live
1.4¢
NO · live
98.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-che-bih-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-3 · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
11.42%
max drawdown
7.14%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.31%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.77%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
7.14%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.33
upside/downside
roll spread
2.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
371
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-che-bih-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.4¢
NO · live
98.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0138 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0115, 0.0165] · R²=0.128▲ RISING +16.00%σ HIGH 10.12%LAST 0.01450.01650.01520.01400.01280.0115μ = 0.0138max 0.0165min 0.0115dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.4%NO 98.6%NO98.6%98.60¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.106 / 1.00 bits (11%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.4%1.4¢71.43×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.6%98.6¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=220 · μ=9.2 · σ=9.3 · CV=1.01BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1808152330μ = 93050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 220bp moved · peak 30bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.1s
▲YES mid
1.40¢ (1.40%)
▼NO mid
98.60¢ (98.60%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$31.8k
≋liquidity $
$71.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0138 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0115, 0.0165] · R²=0.128▲ RISING +16.00%σ HIGH 10.12%LAST 0.01450.01650.01520.01400.01280.0115μ = 0.0138max 0.0165min 0.0115dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9862 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.9835, 0.9885] · R²=0.128▼ FALLING -0.20%σ LOW 0.14%LAST 0.98550.98850.98730.98600.98480.9835μ = 0.9862max 0.9885min 0.9835dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0000 · σ=0.0012 · skew=0.85 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.16 (mesokurtic)864202-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -0.18pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak2-0.12ppbin -0.12pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -0.12pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak4-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -0.07pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak8-0.02ppbin -0.02pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -0.02pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak20.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak20.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.08pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak10.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 0.13pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak0.18pp20.23ppbin 0.23pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.23pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak10.28ppbin 0.28pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 0.28pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.56 · kurt=-0.01 · near 18 / mid 6 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.38¢95% CI: [1.33¢, 1.44¢]
σ STD DEV0.14ppσ² = 0.020 · CV = 10.12%
med MEDIAN1.35¢Q₁ 1.30¢ · Q₃ 1.45¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.50pp · IQR 0.15pp (1.349σ→0.19pp)
min 1.15¢Q₁ 1.30¢med 1.35¢Q₃ 1.45¢max 1.65¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.422approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.871mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.26
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.58
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.46 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.463negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.181lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.729strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.840fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.729
H = 0.729STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.463k=2+0.181k=3+0.142k=4-0.257k=5+0.2820+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.84)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.46 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.84)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322779
SLUGfifwc-che-bih-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-3
CATEGORYSwitzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.40¢implied prob 1.40% · decimal odds 71.43×
COUNTER · NO98.60¢implied prob 98.60% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.40¢
98.60¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME31.76k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY71.41k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.972 · entropy 0.106 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.4%NO 98.6%YES p̂1.4%H = 0.106 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES71.43×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.106 bits (11% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 19:00 UTC
0days
04hrs
41min
4.7 hours·θ = 0.685 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.6%)
current: $0.0140 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.3hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.14% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.685 pp/day
now4.70h left
0.685 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.52h left
0.791 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.35h left
0.969 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.17h left
1.370 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.47h left
2.167 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.30% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.09%MILD BULLISH +0.20%BEST+0.30%5hWORST-0.20%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.09%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.20%+0.40%-0.10%0.05% · 1h0.05% · 1h0.05%1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.30% · 5h0.30% · 5h0.30%5h★ BEST0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.10% · 10h-0.10% · 10h-0.10%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h▼ WORST0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.05% · 16h-0.05% · 16h-0.05%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h0.15% · 19h0.15% · 19h0.15%19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h0.25% · 22h0.25% · 22h0.25%22h-0.20% · 23h-0.20% · 23h-0.20%23h0.25% · 24h0.25% · 24h0.25%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.35%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 38% down · 29% flat
8 up bars · 9 down · best 0.30% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.092%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.20%FINAL+0.20%MAX DD-0.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.40%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0020 · peak 1.0040 · range [0.9990, 1.0040]1.00400.9990break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0040UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.50% · shallow0%-0.50%▼ TROUGH -0.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.50%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0020 (0.20%) · max DD -0.50% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −10 (42% positive) · μ=-10.23 · σ=35.03MIXED EDGELAST 19.40 (+0.85σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -10.2353.3753.3737.0037.0023.4723.4723.4723.4710.8510.85-76.42-76.42-44.62-44.62-52.32-52.32-42.51-42.51-42.51-42.51-35.63-35.63-15.10-15.10-42.72-42.727.307.300.000.00-18.64-18.6414.0514.05-12.74-12.7419.4019.40v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 19.398 · range [-76.42, 53.37] · μ -10.226 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=10.9003 · σ=3.7325 · range [3.8210, 18.8162] · R²=0.176▲ RISING +71.97%σ EXTREME 34.24%LAST 18.816218.816215.067411.31867.56983.8210μ = 10.9003max 18.8162min 3.8210dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 18.82% · range [3.82%, 18.82%] · μ 10.90% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.410 · σ=0.240MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.658 (-1.03σ vs μ)0.8330.4170.000-0.417-0.833μ = -0.410-0.370-0.370-0.219-0.219-0.079-0.079-0.060-0.0600.0380.038-0.633-0.633-0.136-0.136-0.375-0.375-0.526-0.526-0.427-0.427-0.420-0.420-0.365-0.365-0.333-0.333-0.731-0.731-0.833-0.833-0.532-0.532-0.509-0.509-0.626-0.626-0.658-0.658v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.658 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.5147
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4689
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.9898
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0347
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5558
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1042
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7690
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4419
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3152
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1555
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7006
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0890
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.483 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.67e-6 · top T=2.40h (41.4%) · top-3 cover 70.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.4cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)8.3e-66.2e-64.1e-62.1e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.88e-6 · 9.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.88e-6 · 9.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.82e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.82e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.07e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.07e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.53e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.53e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.08e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.08e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.21e-6 · 11.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.21e-6 · 11.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.29e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.29e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.54e-6 · 17.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.54e-6 · 17.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.28e-6 · 41.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.28e-6 · 41.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.29e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.29e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.8% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 41.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.000e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (371 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.02ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0138 · n = 371✓ n = 371
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.02pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0138
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 371
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
7.1pp
peak 1.4¢ → trough 1.3¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
71.429
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+7043
$100 wins $7043
FractionalUK
70.43 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$7042.86
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.106 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.106 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
16116042704117965921603945221339799960014602964588919899106854643313662446810
NO token ID
78169467230108882081132898955799761248658992254417696098161376089272064893811
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 14:18:10 UTC
Snapshot age
2.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 14:18:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
76b4a0b2e317871d78e99a6ba51ddb292c69ab9ca659f2cd90e3efee66c2b98f · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain91.2¢HL PREDBrazil88.1¢HL PREDEcuador87.1¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?54¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,913HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.61HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,736.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.014500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4827.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.913
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.215
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-che-bih-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04724422581.98bp0.12300021FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.10666963565.15bp0.12400022FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.286010187248.15bp0.96000091FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0046076822.76bp0.00100011PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0046076822.76bp0.00100011PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0046076822.76bp0.00100011PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 371 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
842.68%
σ per bar = 0.006365
Mean return (annualised)
17229.49%
μ per bar = 0.000098
Sharpe (rf=0)
20.45
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.14%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 199 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-che-bih-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-3/risk · same metrics, JSON