POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · BRAZIL VS. HAITI

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?

YES · live

88.0¢

NO · live

12.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-bra · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.83%

realized vol (ann.)

44.41%

max drawdown

1.13%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.48%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.21%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.13%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.67

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.67

upside/downside

roll spread

0.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

-3.83%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -3.83%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-bra/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH121ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

88.0¢

NO · live

12.0¢

YES price · live 24h

25 ticks · last 88.00¢

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.529 / 1.00 bits (53%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

88.0%88.0¢1.14×▬ +0.00pp

12.0%12.0¢8.33×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live

Σ 650bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

121ms

▲YES mid

88.00¢ (88.00%)

▼NO mid

12.00¢ (12.00%)

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$45.3k

≋liquidity $

$95.0k

◳history points

25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid

25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 88.00¢

NO price · CLOB mid

25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 12.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments

n=24

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.53)

μ MEAN89.18¢95% CI: [88.71¢, 89.65¢]

σ STD DEV1.20ppσ² = 1.435 · CV = 1.34%

med MEDIAN88.50¢Q₁ 88.50¢ · Q₃ 90.50¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.00pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→1.62pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁0.532right-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.094platykurtic · thin tails

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.57

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.81

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.34

μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.049within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.179lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.980strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.843significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.980

H = 0.980STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.84)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.84)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

MARKET ID1897124

SLUGfifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-bra

CATEGORYBrazil vs. Haiti

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (88¢)

PRIMARY · YES88.00¢implied prob 88.00% · decimal odds 1.14×

COUNTER · NO12.00¢implied prob 12.00% · decimal odds 8.33×

88.00¢

12.00¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE

24H VOLUME45.32k USD 24h

LIQUIDITY95.00k USD

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (88¢)|primary − counter| = 0.760 · entropy 0.529 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (YES)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

YES1.14×(88¢)NO8.33×(12¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.529 bits (53% of max) · moderate uncertainty

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection

⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-20 00:30 UTC

5days

08hrs

23min

YES →$1.00(P = 88.0%)

NO →$0.00(P = 12.0%)

current: $0.8800 · expected return per side: $0.12 on YES hit · $0.88 on NO hit

Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.869 pp/day

now5.35d left

5.869 pp/day×1.00

−25%4.01d left

6.776 pp/day×1.15

−50%2.67d left

8.299 pp/day×1.41

−75%1.34d left

11.737 pp/day×2.00

−90%12.84h left

18.558 pp/day×3.16

θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

2 up bars · 6 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.271%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9750 (-2.50%) · max DD -3.94% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -11.736 · range [-104.64, 0.00] · μ -32.901 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-0.3855

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.6999

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 29.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.750e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3459 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 5.3 d · σ/bar 0.039pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.44ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1056 · n = 3459✓ n = 3459

μ per bar

-0.001pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.039pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.19pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move5d

0.44pp

σ × √128.38624805555554

Terminal variancebinary

0.1056

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

88.0¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.08pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3459

VaR 95%

0.07pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.08pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

4.4pp

peak 91.5¢ → trough 87.5¢

Median step

0.50pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

88.0%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

1.136

total return per $1

AmericanUS

-733

risk $733 to win $100

FractionalUK

0.14 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$13.64

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.529 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.529 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

0.18 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

3.06 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot): gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history): clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID: 103041090730063233481678246468943921262520375914356653176409396265510672924686
NO token ID: 22743545232446807558100435971371787452946094386062548304401212118766791219432
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:06:49 UTC
Snapshot age: 121ms
History points: 25 CLOB mids
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 16:06:49 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 2a096250de47aea669d7ba1c26ae80c76d9bf50b547e780e26509aaf252cf8c0 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,015.5 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.15 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.33

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Brazil vs. Haiti

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 10bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 50bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Mid price

0.880000

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

227.3bp

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

-0.342

ask-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

-0.403

ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-bra/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	0.890000	113.64bp	0.890000	1	FILLED
BUY	$10.00K	0.890000	113.64bp	0.890000	1	FILLED
BUY	$100.00K	0.902659	257.49bp	0.920000	4	FILLED
SELL	$1.00K	0.870000	113.64bp	0.870000	1	FILLED
SELL	$10.00K	0.870000	113.64bp	0.870000	1	FILLED
SELL	$100.00K	0.651468	2596.95bp	0.010000	32	PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,459 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M

Realized vol (annualised)

57.85%

σ per bar = 0.000437

Mean return (annualised)

-1977.07%

μ per bar = -0.000011

Sharpe (rf=0)

-34.17

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

4.37%

peak 0.92 → trough 0.88 over 2760 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-bra/risk · same metrics, JSON