TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “brazil · haiti · win” (8 markets)

Top terms: brazilhaitiwinfifa2026cup

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-3.061169no rejection · independent
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?-2.801169no rejection · independent
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?-2.764169no rejection · independent
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.536169no rejection · independent
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)-2.206169no rejection · independent
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-1.064169no rejection · independent
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)-0.64441no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-bra · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.83%
realized vol (ann.)
44.41%
max drawdown
1.13%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.52%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.13%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.67
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.67
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.83%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -3.83%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19-bra/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →