POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?

YES · live

0.1¢

NO · live

100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · f1-catalunya-grand-prix-winner-russell-2026-06-14 · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-f1-catalunya-grand-prix-winner-russell-2026-06-14/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

0.1¢

NO · live

100.0¢

YES price · live 24h

25 ticks · last 0.05¢

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp

100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live

Σ 6645bp moved · peak 3300bp · n=24 ticks

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

2ms

▲YES mid

0.05¢ (0.05%)

▼NO mid

99.95¢ (99.95%)

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$149.8k

≋liquidity $

$43.4k

◳history points

25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid

25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢

NO price · CLOB mid

25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments

n=24

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.99)

μ MEAN39.41¢95% CI: [30.23¢, 48.59¢]

σ STD DEV23.42ppσ² = 548.703 · CV = 59.43%

med MEDIAN52.50¢Q₁ 23.00¢ · Q₃ 52.50¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 56.95pp · IQR 29.50pp (1.349σ→31.60pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁-0.990left-skewed

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.974mesokurtic · normal-like

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.56

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.07

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.43

μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1

ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.423positive · momentum

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.095lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.944strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.420significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.944

H = 0.944STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.42)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.42)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

MARKET ID2276325

SLUGf1-catalunya-grand-prix-winner-russell-2026-06-14

CATEGORYSports

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)

PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×

COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×

0.05¢

99.95¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP

24H VOLUME149.83k USD 24h

LIQUIDITY43.44k USD

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (YES)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection

⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 13:00 UTC

6days

17hrs

38min

YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)

NO →$0.00(P = 100.0%)

current: $0.0005 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit

Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 114.756 pp/day

now6.74d left

114.756 pp/day×1.00

−25%5.05d left

132.508 pp/day×1.15

−50%3.37d left

162.289 pp/day×1.41

−75%1.68d left

229.511 pp/day×2.00

−90%16.16h left

362.889 pp/day×3.16

θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

5 up bars · 6 down · best 3.00% · worst -33.00% · typical |Δ| 2.769%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.5342 (-46.58%) · max DD -48.89% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -38.210 · range [-60.54, 49.95] · μ -8.333 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

2.0693

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0385

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 18.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.622e-2

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 6.7 d · σ/bar 8.124pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 103.28ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100

μ per bar

-2.185pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

8.124pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

39.80pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

103.28pp

σ × √161.64244805555555

Terminal variancebinary

0.0005

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

0.1¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 15.55pp · ES₉₅ 18.94pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -2.185pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.50pp · unique ratio 0.36⊘ disabled · n < 30

VaR 95%

15.55pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

18.94pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

99.9pp

peak 57.0¢ → trough 0.1¢

Median step

1.50pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

0.1%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

2000.000

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+199900

$100 wins $199900

FractionalUK

1999.00 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$199900.00

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.006 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.006 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

10.97 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.00 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot): gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history): clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID: 61333875177136178362290324124035712579905064314256643854377364325449375063324
NO token ID: 37417773738237612246590692364970199988101894476167893842861953368342496752820
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 19:21:27 UTC
Snapshot age: 2ms
History points: 25 CLOB mids
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 19:21:27 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 4776115ec1da6a9a62d8044fafdc61597121e5c82bde10d21db65a7556d7ef2a · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,798.5 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.15 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.49

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 10bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 50bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Mid price

—

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

—

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

-1.000

ask-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

-1.000

ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-f1-catalunya-grand-prix-winner-russell-2026-06-14/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
BUY	$10.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
BUY	$100.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
SELL	$1.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
SELL	$10.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR
SELL	$100.00K	—	—	—	—	ERR

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars

Realized vol (annualised)

—

σ per bar = 1.257552

Mean return (annualised)

—

μ per bar = -0.289856

Sharpe (rf=0)

—

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

99.91%

peak 0.57 → trough 0.00 over 6 bars

/api/asset/pm-f1-catalunya-grand-prix-winner-russell-2026-06-14/risk · same metrics, JSON