POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · dota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18-game2 · fresh · feed 8s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1376.76%
max drawdown
99.88%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
87.88%
RMS drawdown
pain index
82.14%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
99.88%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.18
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.18
upside/downside
roll spread
219.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
512
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-dota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18-game2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=5 · μ=0.1682 · σ=0.2175 · range [0.0005, 0.4350] · R²=0.740▼ FALLING -99.87%σ EXTREME 129.33%LAST 0.00050.43500.32640.21770.10910.0005μ = 0.1682max 0.4350min 0.0005dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
5 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=4 · Σ=4,945 · μ=1236.3 · σ=1891.8 · CV=1.53BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=201,0132,0253,0384,050μ = 12364,05050%h1h2h3h4#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4945bp moved · peak 4050bp · n=4 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7.7s
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$98.7k
≋liquidity $
$90.5k
◳history points
5 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=5 · μ=0.1682 · σ=0.2175 · range [0.0005, 0.4350] · R²=0.740▼ FALLING -99.87%σ EXTREME 129.33%LAST 0.00050.43500.32640.21770.10910.0005μ = 0.1682max 0.4350min 0.0005dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
5 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=5 · μ=0.8318 · σ=0.2175 · range [0.5650, 0.9995] · R²=0.740▲ RISING +59.92%σ EXTREME 26.15%LAST 0.99950.99950.89090.78230.67360.5650μ = 0.8318max 0.9995min 0.5650dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
5 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=5PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-2.21)
μ MEAN16.82¢95% CI: [-2.25¢, 35.89¢]
σ STD DEV21.75ppσ² = 473.236 · CV = 129.33%
med MEDIAN3.00¢Q₁ 0.05¢ · Q₃ 37.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 43.45pp · IQR 37.45pp (1.349σ→29.35pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 0.05¢med 3.00¢Q₃ 37.50¢max 43.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.306approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-2.210platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.64
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.00
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.46 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.463within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.145lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.500random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.922significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.500
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.463k=2-0.145k=3+0.000k=4+0.000k=5+0.0000+1−1+1.00−1.00+ momentum (ρ > +1.00)− reversal (ρ < −1.00)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.92)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.46 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.46high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.92)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2594159
SLUGdota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18-game2
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME98.72k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY90.50k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 15:15 UTC
0days
02hrs
18min
2.3 hours·θ = 106.572 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 100.0%)
current: $0.0005 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.2hRESOLVESP projection · σ=21.75% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 106.572 pp/day
now2.32h left
106.572 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.74h left
123.059 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.16h left
150.716 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.58h left
213.145 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.23h left
337.011 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (512 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 1.040pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.55ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 512✓ n = 512
μ per bar
-0.082pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.040pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
5.10pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
2.55pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.79pp · ES₉₅ 2.23pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.082pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 3.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 512
VaR 95%
1.79pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.23pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
99.9pp
peak 42.0¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
3.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
39198687964855103064605234064311285535396908933278404570066050091548345273638
NO token ID
96867732543546941112506487261234503517344700875989986456614035323159439425981
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:55:54 UTC
Snapshot age
7.7s
History points
5 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:56:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
166ad30fcc1f0797ee61839959c745d364d9989d73dcb08d0ed12c722d1cea3e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-dota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18-game2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 512 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
24271.84%
σ per bar = 0.183326
Mean return (annualised)
-2309791.20%
μ per bar = -0.013177
Sharpe (rf=0)
-95.16
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
99.88%
peak 0.42 → trough 0.00 over 164 bars

/api/asset/pm-dota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18-game2/risk · same metrics, JSON