POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs
60.5¢
39.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · dota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18 · fresh · feed 1s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
3571.20%
max drawdown
48.03%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
28.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
22.70%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.74%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
46.85%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.02
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.02
upside/downside
roll spread
11.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
486
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-dota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
60.5¢
NO · live
39.5¢
5 ticks · last 60.50¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.968 / 1.00 bits (97%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES60.5%60.5¢1.65×▬ +0.00pp
NO39.5%39.5¢2.53×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 9000bp moved · peak 3300bp · n=4 ticks
1.2s
60.50¢ (60.50%)
39.50¢ (39.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$277.1k
$5.5k
5 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
5 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 60.50¢
5 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 30.00¢
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=5PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-2.19)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.182approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-2.188platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.67 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
60.50¢
39.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES1.65×(61¢)NO2.53×(40¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.968 bits (97% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 15:15 UTC
0days
02hrs
20min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.6050 · expected return per side: $0.40 on YES hit · $0.60 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 74.571 pp/day
now2.34h left74.571 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.76h left86.107 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.17h left105.459 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.59h left149.142 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.23h left235.813 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (486 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 2.698pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.61ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2390 · n = 486✓ n = 486
μ per bar
+0.004pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
2.698pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
13.22pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
6.61pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.2390
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
60.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 4.43pp · ES₉₅ 5.56pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.50pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 486
VaR 95%
4.43pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
5.56pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
48.0pp
peak 63.5¢ → trough 33.0¢
Median step
1.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
60.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.653
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-153
risk $153 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.65 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$65.29
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.968 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.968 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.72 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.34 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
89459142736304618025268092619659652175992541070792967925005140407835930928110- NO token ID
73377582165015546917972502639962881446223133311062772765783444113972363246384- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-18 12:54:24 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 1.2s
- History points
- 5 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-18 12:54:25 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
d694c609dd26761e13fb19caa977a420e95319b22bd227e735a99184bfa71f1e· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.675000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1333.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.888
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.781
ask-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-dota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.720000 | 666.67bp | 0.720000 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.893717 | 3240.26bp | 0.980000 | 13 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.924326 | 3693.72bp | 0.990000 | 14 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.279411 | 5860.57bp | 0.150000 | 17 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.028760 | 9573.93bp | 0.010000 | 29 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.028760 | 9573.93bp | 0.010000 | 29 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 486 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
6045.20%
σ per bar = 0.045661
Mean return (annualised)
12149.19%
μ per bar = 0.000069
Sharpe (rf=0)
2.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
48.03%
peak 0.64 → trough 0.33 over 134 bars
/api/asset/pm-dota2-yb1-vg-2026-06-18/risk · same metrics, JSON