POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT EFFECTIVELY CLOSED BY...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

YES · live
2.3¢
NO · live
97.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
94.13%
max drawdown
40.79%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
21.56%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.96%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
40.79%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.62
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.62
upside/downside
roll spread
7.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
554
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH221ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.3¢
NO · live
97.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0340 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.0220, 0.0455] · R²=0.010▼ FALLING -33.33%σ HIGH 14.70%LAST 0.02200.04550.03960.03380.02790.0220μ = 0.0340max 0.0455min 0.0220dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.20¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.3%NO 97.8%NO97.8%97.75¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.155 / 1.00 bits (16%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.3%2.3¢44.44×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.8%97.8¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=950 · μ=39.6 · σ=39.3 · CV=0.99BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1903978116155μ = 4015550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 950bp moved · peak 155bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
221ms
▲YES mid
2.25¢ (2.25%)
▼NO mid
97.75¢ (97.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$27.5k
≋liquidity $
$76.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0340 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.0220, 0.0455] · R²=0.010▼ FALLING -33.33%σ HIGH 14.70%LAST 0.02200.04550.03960.03380.02790.0220μ = 0.0340max 0.0455min 0.0220dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.20¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9660 · σ=0.0050 · range [0.9545, 0.9780] · R²=0.010▲ RISING +1.14%σ LOW 0.52%LAST 0.97800.97800.97210.96630.96040.9545μ = 0.9660max 0.9780min 0.9545dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.80¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0053 · skew=-0.54 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.45 (mesokurtic)864201-1.42ppbin -1.42pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -1.42pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-1.17pp1-0.91ppbin -0.91pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.91pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak2-0.66ppbin -0.66pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -0.66pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak1-0.40ppbin -0.40pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.40pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak8-0.15ppbin -0.15pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -0.15pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak30.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 0.11pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak50.36ppbin 0.36pp · n=5 · 62.5% peakbin 0.36pp · n=5 · 62.5% peak10.62ppbin 0.62pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 0.62pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak20.87ppbin 0.87pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.87pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.63 · kurt=0.81 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN3.40¢95% CI: [3.20¢, 3.59¢]
σ STD DEV0.50ppσ² = 0.249 · CV = 14.70%
med MEDIAN3.45¢Q₁ 3.15¢ · Q₃ 3.55¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.35pp · IQR 0.40pp (1.349σ→0.67pp)
min 2.20¢Q₁ 3.15¢med 3.45¢Q₃ 3.55¢max 4.55¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.432approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.868mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.68
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.71
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.367within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.078lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.798strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.481fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.798
H = 0.798STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.367k=2-0.078k=3+0.200k=4-0.245k=5+0.2010+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.48)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.37 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.96very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.48)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2170254
SLUGbab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571
CATEGORYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.25¢implied prob 2.25% · decimal odds 44.44×
COUNTER · NO97.75¢implied prob 97.75% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.25¢
97.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME27.55k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY75.97k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.955 · entropy 0.155 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.3%NO 97.8%YES p̂2.3%H = 0.155 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES44.44×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.155 bits (16% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.40%BEARISH SESSION -1.10%BEST+1.00%22hWORST-1.55%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.40%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.10%+1.25%-1.10%-0.15% · 1h-0.15% · 1h-0.15%1h0.30% · 2h0.30% · 2h0.30%2h-0.30% · 3h-0.30% · 3h-0.30%3h0.40% · 4h0.40% · 4h0.40%4h-0.10% · 5h-0.10% · 5h-0.10%5h-0.20% · 6h-0.20% · 6h-0.20%6h-0.10% · 7h-0.10% · 7h-0.10%7h0.35% · 8h0.35% · 8h0.35%8h-0.05% · 9h-0.05% · 9h-0.05%9h-0.20% · 10h-0.20% · 10h-0.20%10h0.30% · 11h0.30% · 11h0.30%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.45% · 13h0.45% · 13h0.45%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.65% · 15h-0.65% · 15h-0.65%15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h0.60% · 17h0.60% · 17h0.60%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.80% · 19h0.80% · 19h0.80%19h-1.00% · 20h-1.00% · 20h-1.00%20h-0.75% · 21h-0.75% · 21h-0.75%21h1.00% · 22h1.00% · 22h1.00%22h★ BEST-1.55% · 23h-1.55% · 23h-1.55%23h▼ WORST-0.05% · 24h-0.05% · 24h-0.05%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 54% down · 13% flat
8 up bars · 13 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.55% · typical |Δ| 0.396%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.13%)FINAL-1.13%MAX DD-2.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.25%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9887 · peak 1.0125 · range [0.9887, 1.0125]1.01250.9887break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0125UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.35% · moderate0%-2.35%▼ TROUGH -2.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.35%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.85%bar 16-19 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -0.40%bar 6-13 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 5 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9887 (-1.13%) · max DD -2.35% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −8 (53% positive) · μ=3.75 · σ=19.13MIXED EDGELAST -23.69 (-1.43σ vs μ)51.0725.530.00-25.53-51.07μ = 3.75-2.72-2.720.000.002.652.6518.2218.22-22.83-22.836.336.3320.9320.9351.0751.0732.2032.20-4.02-4.02-4.02-4.026.916.916.916.9116.1416.14-10.07-10.07-12.01-12.0112.1312.13-22.88-22.88-23.69-23.69v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -23.693 · range [-23.69, 51.07] · μ 3.751 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=43.3403 · σ=25.0807 · range [19.1812, 95.7234] · R²=0.773▲ RISING +255.47%σ EXTREME 57.87%LAST 95.513495.723476.587857.452338.316819.1812μ = 43.3403max 95.7234min 19.1812dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.77μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 95.51% · range [19.18%, 95.72%] · μ 43.34% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.239 · σ=0.235MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.563 (-1.38σ vs μ)0.6610.3310.000-0.331-0.661μ = -0.239-0.661-0.661-0.525-0.525-0.359-0.359-0.159-0.159-0.024-0.024-0.273-0.273-0.500-0.500-0.281-0.281-0.350-0.350-0.063-0.0630.1680.1680.0220.0220.0170.0170.0170.017-0.291-0.291-0.056-0.056-0.203-0.203-0.459-0.459-0.563-0.563v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.563 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.4941
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1743
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.2191
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1433
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7506
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0689
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.9977
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3184
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1473
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4487
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0371
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0416
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.380 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.09e-5 · top T=2.67h (19.5%) · top-3 cover 50.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.2e-55.4e-53.6e-51.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.32e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.52e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 6.52e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.12e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.12e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.54e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.54e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.71e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.71e-5 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.75e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.36e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.36e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.50e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.50e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.24e-5 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.24e-5 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.26e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.26e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.88e-5 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.88e-5 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 4.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 19.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.705e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (554 bars · effective 1753297 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.071pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.17ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0220 · n = 554✓ n = 554
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.071pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.35pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.17pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0220
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 554
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
40.8pp
peak 3.8¢ → trough 2.3¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
44.444
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4344
$100 wins $4344
FractionalUK
43.44 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4344.44
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.155 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.155 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.47 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
70979157952244849403592933535229643909731035328387913162617056140126772714735
NO token ID
95580602988758783752712445121155191665286945527392197193712707520306862606842
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 01:47:16 UTC
Snapshot age
221ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 01:47:17 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e1b7f6a08dfb7e5d836518fde5acbfe5e9396e9166a4f3ba8c2e6db727fce7ab · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.022000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1818.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.224
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.440
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0387777626.00bp0.05000012FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.16230363774.22bp0.55800059FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.574149250976.87bp0.94000092FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0020869051.72bp0.00100018PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0020869051.72bp0.00100018PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0020869051.72bp0.00100018PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 554 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3174.88%
σ per bar = 0.023977
Mean return (annualised)
-80461.61%
μ per bar = -0.000459
Sharpe (rf=0)
-25.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
40.79%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.02 over 184 bars

/api/asset/pm-bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571/risk · same metrics, JSON