TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “bab · el · mandeb” (2 markets)
Top terms: babelmandebeffectivelyclosedstrait
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?0.1¢ YES · $26.3k 24h
- ★ Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?2.4¢ YES · $27.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (1 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.410 | 150 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
78.89%
max drawdown
43.42%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
29.24%
RMS drawdown
pain index
21.02%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
43.42%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.69
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.69
upside/downside
roll spread
4.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
795
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-571/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →