POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT EFFECTIVELY CLOSED BY...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?

YES · live
0.3¢
NO · live
99.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
11.46%
max drawdown
16.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.84%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
16.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
3.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
3.00
upside/downside
roll spread
24.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
335
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH33ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.3¢
NO · live
99.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0036 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0015, 0.0070] · R²=0.004▲ RISING +20.00%σ EXTREME 38.74%LAST 0.00300.00700.00560.00430.00290.0015μ = 0.0036max 0.0070min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.30¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.3%NO 99.8%NO99.8%99.75¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.025 / 1.00 bits (3%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.3%0.3¢400.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.8%99.8¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=155 · μ=6.5 · σ=8.7 · CV=1.34BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1509182635μ = 63550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 155bp moved · peak 35bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
33ms
▲YES mid
0.25¢ (0.25%)
▼NO mid
99.75¢ (99.75%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$41.9k
≋liquidity $
$37.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0036 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0015, 0.0070] · R²=0.004▲ RISING +20.00%σ EXTREME 38.74%LAST 0.00300.00700.00560.00430.00290.0015μ = 0.0036max 0.0070min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.30¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9964 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.9930, 0.9985] · R²=0.004▬ FLATσ LOW 0.14%LAST 0.99700.99850.99710.99580.99440.9930μ = 0.9964max 0.9985min 0.9930dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.70¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0011 · skew=-0.97 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.15 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186301-0.32ppbin -0.32pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.32pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-0.27pp-0.21pp1-0.16ppbin -0.16pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.16pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak1-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -0.10pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak3-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin -0.05pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak110.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak20.06ppbin 0.06pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 0.06pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak20.12ppbin 0.12pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 0.12pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak30.17ppbin 0.17pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 0.17pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.11 · kurt=3.05 · near 16 / mid 7 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.91)
μ MEAN0.36¢95% CI: [0.30¢, 0.41¢]
σ STD DEV0.14ppσ² = 0.019 · CV = 38.74%
med MEDIAN0.35¢Q₁ 0.25¢ · Q₃ 0.45¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.55pp · IQR 0.20pp (1.349σ→0.19pp)
min 0.15¢Q₁ 0.25¢med 0.35¢Q₃ 0.45¢max 0.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.909right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.273mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.99
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.120within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.018lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.736strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.316fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.736
H = 0.736STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.120k=2+0.018k=3-0.072k=4+0.020k=5-0.2290+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.32)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.59high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.32)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2473005
SLUGbab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15
CATEGORYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.25¢implied prob 0.25% · decimal odds 400.00×
COUNTER · NO99.75¢implied prob 99.75% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.25¢
99.75¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME41.94k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY37.59k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.995 · entropy 0.025 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.3%NO 99.8%YES p̂0.3%H = 0.025 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES400.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.025 bits (3% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.35% · typical |Δ| 0.06%MILD BULLISH +0.05%BEST+0.20%10hWORST-0.35%17hTYPICAL |Δ|0.06%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.40%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.05%+0.45%-0.10%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.10% · 8h0.10% · 8h0.10%8h-0.10% · 9h-0.10% · 9h-0.10%9h0.20% · 10h0.20% · 10h0.20%10h★ BEST0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.15% · 14h0.15% · 14h0.15%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h-0.35% · 17h-0.35% · 17h-0.35%17h▼ WORST0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.15% · 22h0.15% · 22h0.15%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.40%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 25% down · 46% flat
7 up bars · 6 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.35% · typical |Δ| 0.065%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsFLAT · NO MATERIAL MOVEMENTFINAL+0.05%MAX DD-0.55%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.45%UNDERWATER12/25 (48%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0005 · peak 1.0045 · range [0.9990, 1.0045]1.00450.9990break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0045UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.55% · shallow0%-0.55%▼ TROUGH -0.55%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.55%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 7-10 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.55%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER48% of session · 12/25 bars
final equity 1.0005 (0.05%) · max DD -0.55% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −9 (47% positive) · μ=4.48 · σ=33.46MIXED EDGELAST -8.04 (-0.37σ vs μ)71.2635.630.00-35.63-71.26μ = 4.4815.8715.870.000.0022.8322.83-22.83-22.8313.8613.8613.8613.8621.5921.5930.2130.2135.0035.0071.2671.2666.7266.72-9.06-9.06-9.06-9.06-13.57-13.57-45.55-45.55-52.99-52.99-36.85-36.85-8.04-8.04-8.04-8.04v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.038 · range [-52.99, 71.26] · μ 4.485 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=10.4256 · σ=3.9616 · range [4.6011, 16.1434] · R²=0.389▲ RISING +97.40%σ EXTREME 38.00%LAST 9.082416.143413.257810.37237.48674.6011μ = 10.4256max 16.1434min 4.6011dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 9.08% · range [4.60%, 16.14%] · μ 10.43% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.233 · σ=0.292MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.158 (+1.34σ vs μ)0.6910.3460.000-0.346-0.691μ = -0.233-0.075-0.0750.1670.167-0.048-0.048-0.548-0.548-0.491-0.491-0.557-0.557-0.691-0.691-0.646-0.646-0.484-0.484-0.181-0.181-0.004-0.004-0.024-0.024-0.064-0.064-0.097-0.097-0.332-0.332-0.579-0.579-0.072-0.0720.1490.1490.1580.158v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.158 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
22.4743
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.2884
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8098
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0445
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2773
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2691
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7878
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1573
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4314
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2187
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8269
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.933 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.26e-6 · top T=2.00h (19.9%) · top-3 cover 46.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-62.3e-61.5e-67.5e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.56e-7 · 4.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.56e-7 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.99e-6 · 13.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.99e-6 · 13.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.74e-7 · 3.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.74e-7 · 3.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.39e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.39e-6 · 9.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.62e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.62e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.89e-6 · 12.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.89e-6 · 12.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.45e-7 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.45e-7 · 5.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.48e-7 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.48e-7 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.01e-6 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.01e-6 · 13.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.20e-7 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.20e-7 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.35e-6 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.35e-6 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-6 · 19.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.01e-6 · 19.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 19.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.512e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (335 bars · effective 1753297 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.02ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0025 · n = 335✓ n = 335
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.02pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0025
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 335
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
16.7pp
peak 0.3¢ → trough 0.3¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
400.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+39900
$100 wins $39900
FractionalUK
399.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$39900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.025 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.025 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
8.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
20196742749539509761661984106543638848820693100108903857245165416832601208204
NO token ID
22813333167181952476913003462323119484686032415524153034271351423690418150204
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 04:07:21 UTC
Snapshot age
33ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 04:07:21 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
14ad3f4d9913e025fbbf6ea00524a7d3077de217a0d1cb9b29f9828668b28cac · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.003000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.985
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.448
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.046215144048.73bp0.38800029FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.275931909769.36bp0.68000041FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7359072443021.78bp0.97000060FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010196604.90bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010196604.90bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010196604.90bp0.0010002PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 335 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
5196.70%
σ per bar = 0.039246
Mean return (annualised)
268152.47%
μ per bar = 0.001529
Sharpe (rf=0)
51.60
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
16.67%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 181 bars

/api/asset/pm-bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15/risk · same metrics, JSON