POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · HSBC CHAMPIONSHIPS: TOMMY PAUL VS BOTIC VAN DE ZANDSCHULP
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp
98.5¢
1.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · atp-paul-zandsch-2026-06-17 · fresh · feed 6s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
3217.15%
max drawdown
19.28%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.84%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.06%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
19.28%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.99
upside/downside
roll spread
39.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
262
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-atp-paul-zandsch-2026-06-17/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
98.5¢
NO · live
1.5¢
25 ticks · last 94.55¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.112 / 1.00 bits (11%) · informative — one side favoured
YES98.5%98.5¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
NO1.5%1.5¢66.67×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 5195bp moved · peak 3200bp · n=24 ticks
6.4s
98.50¢ (98.50%)
1.50¢ (1.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$316.7k
$13.6k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.55¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.45¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.74)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁1.860right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.735leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.43 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.868STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
98.50¢
1.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES1.02×(99¢)NO66.67×(2¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.112 bits (11% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-24 08:00 UTC
5days
17hrs
54min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.9850 · expected return per side: $0.02 on YES hit · $0.98 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 29.783 pp/day
now5.75d left29.783 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.31d left34.391 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.87d left42.120 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.44d left59.566 pp/day×2.00
−90%13.79h left94.183 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
5 up bars · 5 down · best 32.00% · worst -14.00% · typical |Δ| 2.165%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.1468 (14.68%) · max DD -14.00% · time-under-water 20/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 19.469 · range [-38.21, 60.42] · μ 9.523 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 1428.61% · range [19.10%, 1428.61%] · μ 202.39% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.498 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
329.1994
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
5.2693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3842
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-2.9782
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0386
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
REJECT H₀*H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
2.0125
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0442
KPSS (μ stationarity)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.3214
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1447
Variance ratio q=3
REJECT H₀*H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-2.4747
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0133
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 15.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.576e-2
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (262 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 5.7 d · σ/bar 2.431pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 28.55ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0148 · n = 262✓ n = 262
μ per bar
+0.153pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
2.431pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
11.91pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move6d
28.55pp
σ × √137.91518472222222
Terminal variancebinary
0.0148
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
98.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 3.85pp · ES₉₅ 4.86pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.153pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 2.00pp · unique ratio 0.06✓ n = 262
VaR 95%
3.85pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
4.86pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
19.3pp
peak 83.0¢ → trough 67.0¢
Median step
2.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
98.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.015
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-6567
risk $6567 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.02 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1.52
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.112 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.112 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.02 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
6.06 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
10646278072264736002250153060744627353008452549175701467718940257121385270761- NO token ID
13164964602526566930040825473925081663143091353487472216907300167631628208798- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-18 14:04:58 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 6.4s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-18 14:05:05 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
3377c307b1461c33fef041ffccb488dfb7f1826b4fafea62546c13b62cbd6e1a· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$159
bid $7 · ask $152
Mid price
0.945500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
95.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.931
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.783
ask-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-atp-paul-zandsch-2026-06-17/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.957977 | 131.96bp | 0.960000 | 4 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.964315 | 199.00bp | 0.970000 | 5 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.972034 | 280.64bp | 0.999000 | 8 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.932149 | 141.20bp | 0.931000 | 5 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.929988 | 164.06bp | 0.929000 | 7 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.066761 | 9293.91bp | 0.001000 | 44 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 262 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
4428.56%
σ per bar = 0.033451
Mean return (annualised)
349891.10%
μ per bar = 0.001996
Sharpe (rf=0)
79.01
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
19.28%
peak 0.83 → trough 0.67 over 50 bars
/api/asset/pm-atp-paul-zandsch-2026-06-17/risk · same metrics, JSON