POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · PGA TOUR: U.S. OPEN WINNER

Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open?

YES · live
33.6¢
NO · live
66.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · 2026-us-open-winner-wyndham-clark-win · fresh · feed 10s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
11.66%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
548
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-2026-us-open-winner-wyndham-clark-win/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
33.6¢
NO · live
66.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2993 · σ=0.0538 · range [0.1940, 0.3505] · R²=0.646▲ RISING +59.62%σ EXTREME 17.98%LAST 0.33600.35050.31140.27220.23310.1940μ = 0.2993max 0.3505min 0.1940dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 33.60¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 33.6%NO 66.4%NO66.4%66.40¢ · odds 1/1.51
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.921 / 1.00 bits (92%) · high uncertainty
YES
33.6%33.6¢2.98×▬ +0.00pp
NO
66.4%66.4¢1.51×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,175 · μ=174.0 · σ=276.4 · CV=1.59BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=603336659981,330μ = 1741,33050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4175bp moved · peak 1330bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9.8s
▲YES mid
33.60¢ (33.60%)
▼NO mid
66.40¢ (66.40%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$70.1k
≋liquidity $
$62.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2993 · σ=0.0538 · range [0.1940, 0.3505] · R²=0.646▲ RISING +59.62%σ EXTREME 17.98%LAST 0.33600.35050.31140.27220.23310.1940μ = 0.2993max 0.3505min 0.1940dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 33.60¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7007 · σ=0.0538 · range [0.6495, 0.8060] · R²=0.646▼ FALLING -15.90%σ HIGH 7.68%LAST 0.66400.80600.76690.72780.68860.6495μ = 0.7007max 0.8060min 0.6495dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.65μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 66.40¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0077 · σ=0.0296 · skew=2.47 (right-skewed) · kurt=7.41 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085302-2.76ppbin -2.76pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -2.76pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak7-1.07ppbin -1.07pp · n=7 · 70.0% peakbin -1.07pp · n=7 · 70.0% peak100.62ppbin 0.62pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.62pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak22.31ppbin 2.31pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 2.31pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak24.00ppbin 4.00pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 4.00pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak5.70pp7.38pp9.07pp10.77pp112.46ppbin 12.46pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 12.46pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.66 · kurt=8.25 · near 10 / mid 13 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.99σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.01)
μ MEAN29.93¢95% CI: [27.82¢, 32.04¢]
σ STD DEV5.38ppσ² = 28.949 · CV = 17.98%
med MEDIAN33.20¢Q₁ 29.10¢ · Q₃ 33.45¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 15.65pp · IQR 4.35pp (1.349σ→7.26pp)
min 19.40¢Q₁ 29.10¢med 33.20¢Q₃ 33.45¢max 35.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.006left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.766mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.61
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.67
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.91
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.467negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.169lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.963strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.480significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.963
H = 0.963STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.467k=2+0.169k=3-0.019k=4-0.139k=5-0.0610+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.48)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.48)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2553312
SLUG2026-us-open-winner-wyndham-clark-win
CATEGORYPGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (66¢)
PRIMARY · YES33.60¢implied prob 33.60% · decimal odds 2.98×
COUNTER · NO66.40¢implied prob 66.40% · decimal odds 1.51×
33.60¢
66.40¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME70.15k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY62.34k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (66¢)|primary − counter| = 0.328 · entropy 0.921 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 33.6%NO 66.4%YES p̂33.6%H = 0.921 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.98×(34¢)NO1.51×(66¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.921 bits (92% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
0days
14hrs
20min
14.3 hours·θ = 26.358 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 33.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 66.4%)
current: $0.3360 · expected return per side: $0.66 on YES hit · $0.34 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.2hRESOLVESP projection · σ=5.38% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 26.358 pp/day
now14.34h left
26.358 pp/day×1.00
−25%10.76h left
30.436 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.17h left
37.277 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.59h left
52.717 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.43h left
83.353 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 13.30% · worst -3.60% · typical |Δ| 1.74%MILD BULLISH +12.55%BEST+13.30%6hWORST-3.60%7hTYPICAL |Δ|1.74%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+12.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +1.15% · Σ +8.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.62% · Σ +4.95%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +12.55%+14.00%-1.65%-0.20% · 1h-0.20% · 1h-0.20%1h-1.35% · 2h-1.35% · 2h-1.35%2h3.35% · 3h3.35% · 3h3.35%3h-1.05% · 4h-1.05% · 4h-1.05%4h-2.40% · 5h-2.40% · 5h-2.40%5h13.30% · 6h13.30% · 6h13.30%6h★ BEST-3.60% · 7h-3.60% · 7h-3.60%7h▼ WORST4.25% · 8h4.25% · 8h4.25%8h-1.85% · 9h-1.85% · 9h-1.85%9h-0.80% · 10h-0.80% · 10h-0.80%10h-1.35% · 11h-1.35% · 11h-1.35%11h3.05% · 12h3.05% · 12h3.05%12h1.05% · 13h1.05% · 13h1.05%13h1.60% · 14h1.60% · 14h1.60%14h-1.00% · 15h-1.00% · 15h-1.00%15h-0.60% · 16h-0.60% · 16h-0.60%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.20% · 18h-0.20% · 18h-0.20%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h0.35% · 21h0.35% · 21h0.35%21h-0.15% · 22h-0.15% · 22h-0.15%22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+8.05%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 54% down · 8% flat
9 up bars · 13 down · best 13.30% · worst -3.60% · typical |Δ| 1.740%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +12.06%FINAL+12.06%MAX DD-3.95%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+13.70%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.1206 · peak 1.1370 · range [0.9827, 1.1370]1.13700.9827break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1370UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.95% · moderate0%-3.95%▼ TROUGH -3.95%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -3.95%bar 10-13 · 4 bars · recovered#2 -3.60%bar 8-8 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -3.42%bar 5-6 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.95%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.1206 (12.06%) · max DD -3.95% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −4 (79% positive) · μ=13.89 · σ=23.14PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 31.30 (+0.75σ vs μ)61.0530.530.00-30.53-61.05μ = 13.8930.7930.7920.4320.4334.6834.6821.0421.0421.7121.7124.7124.71-1.54-1.5427.1627.1613.8413.8422.7122.7124.8624.8642.1342.1313.3413.34-4.39-4.39-61.05-61.05-16.82-16.827.647.6411.4511.4531.3031.30v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 31.305 · range [-61.05, 42.13] · μ 13.894 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=262.0577 · σ=237.1707 · range [16.3233, 600.3614] · R²=0.865▼ FALLING -97.05%σ EXTREME 90.50%LAST 16.3233600.3614454.3519308.3424162.332816.3233μ = 262.0577max 600.3614min 16.3233dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 16.32% · range [16.32%, 600.36%] · μ 262.06% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.190 · σ=0.291MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.274 (-0.29σ vs μ)0.5970.2990.000-0.299-0.597μ = -0.190-0.219-0.219-0.531-0.531-0.597-0.597-0.579-0.579-0.595-0.595-0.344-0.344-0.535-0.535-0.194-0.1940.1470.147-0.116-0.116-0.175-0.1750.2340.2340.1340.134-0.270-0.2700.2980.2980.0870.087-0.009-0.009-0.063-0.063-0.274-0.274v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.274 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
144.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.4555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1877
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9382
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3247
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1646
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8693
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7107
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0126
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5693
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1166
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.522 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.11e-3 · top T=2.00h (17.9%) · top-3 cover 50.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.4e-31.8e-31.2e-35.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.33e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.33e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.07e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.07e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.92e-4 · 6.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.92e-4 · 6.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.14e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.14e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.29e-4 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.29e-4 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.82e-4 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.82e-4 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.35e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.35e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-3 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-3 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.02e-3 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.02e-3 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.55e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.55e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.27e-3 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.27e-3 · 17.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.37e-3 · 17.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.37e-3 · 17.9% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 17.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.327e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (548 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.6 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2231 · n = 548✓ n = 548
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move1d
0.03pp
σ × √14.344924166666665
Terminal variancebinary
0.2231
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
33.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 548
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 33.4¢ → trough 33.4¢
Median step
0.20pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
33.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.976
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+198
$100 wins $198
FractionalUK
1.98 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$197.62
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 33.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.921 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.921 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.57 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.59 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
101154295897234391521884209976339651384920907566595653811404560295401008143352
NO token ID
71897738487471694503856786703188314257433560638690438248806320045018706837083
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:39:08 UTC
Snapshot age
9.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:39:18 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
40de4b2aff84f91a5c7e35c3876cd24b1747552d6558a57acaa6a871cf80a26b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,616HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.66HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,728.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in PGA Tour: U.S. Open Winner

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.336000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
119.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.694
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.916
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-2026-us-open-winner-wyndham-clark-win/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.356622613.75bp0.3660009FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3728681097.26bp0.38000014FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.71693911337.46bp0.99600082FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.33400059.52bp0.3340001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.329528192.61bp0.3140008FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.2575862333.75bp0.00100025PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 548 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
34.86%
σ per bar = 0.000263
Mean return (annualised)
2392.75%
μ per bar = 0.000014
Sharpe (rf=0)
68.63
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.33 → trough 0.33 over 0 bars

/api/asset/pm-2026-us-open-winner-wyndham-clark-win/risk · same metrics, JSON