HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

XAI

XAI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-xai · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.86%
realized vol (ann.)
94.88%
max drawdown
1.36%
sharpe
-13.76
ulcer index
0.66%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1974.29
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.15%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1138.90
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
2.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.86%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-16.58%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 41%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 24.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-xai/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.008
24h Δ · live
-0.86%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
XAI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0081 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0080, 0.0082] · R²=0.077▼ FALLING -0.86%σ LOW 0.49%LAST 0.00800.00820.00810.00810.00810.0080μ = 0.0081max 0.0082min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.7%Short fee 51.3%SHORT FEE51.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001893% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=12,869,432 · μ=514777.3 · σ=788674.7 · CV=1.53BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100685,4191,370,8392,056,2582,741,677μ = 5147772,741,677.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2741677 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$0.008
$mid $
$0.008
◉prev-day close
$0.0081
Δ24h Δ %
-0.864%
$24h vol $
$103.41k
◐open interest $
$422.15k
%funding (1h)
-0.001893%
%funding (yr)
-16.58%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0081 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0080, 0.0082] · R²=0.077▼ FALLING -0.86%σ LOW 0.49%LAST 0.00800.00820.00810.00810.00810.0080μ = 0.0081max 0.0082min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0080 · 24h -0.86% · range $[0.0080, 0.0082]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0080, 0.0083] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=42%BEARISH -0.50%CLOSE 0.0080 vs OPEN 0.0081 (-0.50%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00800.00830.00820.00810.00800.0080μ close = 0.0081O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.74%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.74%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.50%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.50%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.25%)1.6%O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+1.61%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.12%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.49%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-1.23%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.62%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.25%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (-0.37%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.00%)O0.008 H0.008 L0.008 C0.008 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=12,869,432 · μ=514777.3 · σ=788674.7 · CV=1.53BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100685,4191,370,8392,056,2582,741,677μ = 514777281,377.7 · 10.3% peak281,377.7 · 10.3% peak199,284.3 · 7.3% peak199,284.3 · 7.3% peak145,708.8 · 5.3% peak145,708.8 · 5.3% peak150,814.7 · 5.5% peak150,814.7 · 5.5% peak2,662,005.9 · 97.1% peak2,662,005.9 · 97.1% peak252,725.2 · 9.2% peak252,725.2 · 9.2% peak162,575.9 · 5.9% peak162,575.9 · 5.9% peak114,370.9 · 4.2% peak114,370.9 · 4.2% peak164,610.3 · 6.0% peak164,610.3 · 6.0% peak2,741,677.32,741,677.3 · 100.0% peak2,741,677.3 · 100.0% peak205,632.3 · 7.5% peak205,632.3 · 7.5% peak193,125.2 · 7.0% peak193,125.2 · 7.0% peak244,645.3 · 8.9% peak244,645.3 · 8.9% peak2,316,759.6 · 84.5% peak2,316,759.6 · 84.5% peak602,573.6 · 22.0% peak602,573.6 · 22.0% peak111,889.6 · 4.1% peak111,889.6 · 4.1% peak373,757.5 · 13.6% peak373,757.5 · 13.6% peak351,910.1 · 12.8% peak351,910.1 · 12.8% peak555,642.5 · 20.3% peak555,642.5 · 20.3% peak182,010.5 · 6.6% peak182,010.5 · 6.6% peak159,925.4 · 5.8% peak159,925.4 · 5.8% peak260,218.2 · 9.5% peak260,218.2 · 9.5% peak120,492 · 4.4% peak120,492 · 4.4% peak232,688 · 8.5% peak232,688 · 8.5% peak83,011.3 · 3.0% peak83,011.3 · 3.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 12869432 · peak 2741677 · CV 1.53

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0058 · skew=0.35 (symmetric) · kurt=0.38 (mesokurtic)65320 2-111.94bpbin -111.94bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -111.94bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-88.29bp 1-64.65bpbin -64.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -64.65bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-41.00bpbin -41.00bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -41.00bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 4-17.35bpbin -17.35bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -17.35bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 26.30bpbin 6.30bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 6.30bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 429.94bpbin 29.94bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 29.94bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 353.59bpbin 53.59bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 53.59bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 177.24bpbin 77.24bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 77.24bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak100.89bp124.53bp 1148.18bpbin 148.18bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 148.18bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.39 · kurt=0.58 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.008
Mid price
$0.008
24h change
-0.86%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0081

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.61)
μ MEAN0.0081$95% CI: [0.0081$, 0.0081$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.49%
med MEDIAN0.0081$Q₁ 0.0081$ · Q₃ 0.0081$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0002$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0080$Q₁ 0.0081$med 0.0081$Q₃ 0.0081$max 0.0082$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.610right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.449mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.05
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.32
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.58
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.45
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.036120%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.058
σᵣ STD / h0.620124%σ²ᵣ = 0.385×10⁻⁴ · CV = 17.17×
σ ANNUALISED58.04%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.620%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.45negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.81downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.42approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.03leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.07
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-316.41%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.04%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.042%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.210%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.177%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.20%6h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.042%VaR₉₉−1.210%ES₉₅−1.177%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 6h duration
PEAK0.82$
−2.20% drawdown over 6h
0.80$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.25% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.267 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0082
Bollinger MA
$0.0081
Bollinger lower
$0.0080

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.302within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.252lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.498random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.389fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.498
H = 0.498RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.302k=2-0.252k=3-0.044k=4+0.181k=5-0.0280+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.39)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.30moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.39)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$103.41k
Open interest (USD)
$422.15k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.24x
1h funding
-0.001893%
Funding (annualised)
-16.58%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-9.393× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-4.696× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.348×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.60% · worst -1.24% · typical |Δ| 0.49%MILD BEARISH -0.87%BEST+1.60%01hWORST-1.24%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.49%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.87%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.37%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.87%+0.98%-1.24%-0.37% · 13h-0.37% · 13h-0.37%13h-0.25% · 14h-0.25% · 14h-0.25%14h0.37% · 15h0.37% · 15h0.37%15h0.49% · 16h0.49% · 16h0.49%16h-0.49% · 17h-0.49% · 17h-0.49%17h-0.37% · 18h-0.37% · 18h-0.37%18h0.37% · 19h0.37% · 19h0.37%19h-0.37% · 20h-0.37% · 20h-0.37%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h-0.25% · 23h-0.25% · 23h-0.25%23h0.00% · 00h0.00% · 00h·00h1.60% · 01h1.60% · 01h1.60%01h★ BEST-0.61% · 02h-0.61% · 02h-0.61%02h-0.12% · 03h-0.12% · 03h-0.12%03h-1.24% · 04h-1.24% · 04h-1.24%04h▼ WORST0.62% · 05h0.62% · 05h0.62%05h0.25% · 06h0.25% · 06h0.25%06h-1.12% · 07h-1.12% · 07h-1.12%07h0.75% · 08h0.75% · 08h0.75%08h0.37% · 09h0.37% · 09h0.37%09h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.37% · 11h-0.37% · 11h-0.37%11h0.12% · 12h0.12% · 12h0.12%12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.13%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 1.60% · worst -1.24% · typical |Δ| 0.490%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.91%)FINAL-0.91%MAX DD-2.22%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.97%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9909 · peak 1.0097 · range [0.9873, 1.0097]1.00970.9873break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0097UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.22% · moderate0%-2.22%▼ TROUGH -2.22%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.22%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.87%bar 6-13 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -0.62%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.22%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9909 (-0.91%) · max DD -2.22% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-4.74 · σ=16.89MIXED EDGELAST -17.29 (-0.74σ vs μ)46.3823.190.00-23.19-46.38μ = -4.74-22.77-22.774.404.40-0.00-0.004.034.03-22.68-22.68-14.88-14.880.000.0025.5425.5419.4419.447.387.38-10.23-10.233.923.927.817.81-46.38-46.38-15.72-15.72-6.53-6.538.058.05-14.20-14.20-17.29-17.29v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -17.287 · range [-46.38, 25.54] · μ -4.741 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.9345 · σ=20.1423 · range [33.5812, 92.5364] · R²=0.448▲ RISING +58.34%σ EXTREME 32.01%LAST 62.792692.536477.797663.058848.320033.5812μ = 62.9345max 92.5364min 33.5812dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 62.79% · range [33.58%, 92.54%] · μ 62.93% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.314 · σ=0.188MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.261 (+0.28σ vs μ)0.6720.3360.000-0.336-0.672μ = -0.3140.1390.139-0.112-0.112-0.147-0.147-0.440-0.440-0.441-0.441-0.672-0.672-0.595-0.595-0.102-0.102-0.398-0.398-0.293-0.293-0.150-0.150-0.310-0.310-0.258-0.258-0.352-0.352-0.492-0.492-0.365-0.365-0.338-0.338-0.385-0.385-0.261-0.261v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.261 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7540
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4160
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.3789
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3716
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.8077
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0033
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7369
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4612
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2324
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8083
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0706
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.450 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.85e-5 · top T=3.43h (22.0%) · top-3 cover 49.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-47.6e-55.1e-52.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.79e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.79e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.46e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.46e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.88e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.88e-5 · 6.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.23e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.23e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.12e-5 · 11.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.12e-5 · 11.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.57e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.57e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 22.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.01e-4 · 22.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.85e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.85e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.64e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.64e-5 · 12.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.23e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.23e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.96e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.96e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.95e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.95e-5 · 8.5% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 22.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.620e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-14.27×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -13.56400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.006
annualized -13.56
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -14.29σ ann 100% · Sortino -4.96 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1715%-1348%-981%-614%-247%120%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)100.2%Ann. vol σ-1428.8%Sharpe (ann)-496.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0080.0080.0080.0080.0080.009t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:19:40 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:19:42 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
aa635532ccca82c91772b98b41d572008d1017d87bbccd930db76304b9a6fec5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$7.65K
bid $3.48K · ask $4.18K
Depth within 50bp
$23.80K
bid $10.78K · ask $13.02K
Mid price
0.008035
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
12.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.287
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.105
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xai/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0080406.22bp0.0080401FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00804613.47bp0.0080502FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.008228240.36bp0.01552020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0080306.22bp0.0080301FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00802216.47bp0.0080103FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.007515647.64bp0.00658020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.893e-5
-0.00189% / hr
Annualised APR
-16.594%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
22.0d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
22.0d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE16.594%22.0d220.1d
SHORTPAY-16.594%22.0d220.1d

/api/asset/hl-xai/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$12.87M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-xai/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.493 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.40M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.19M
real volume
Net delta
$6.20M
buyers net
Imbalance
49.29%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
49.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-xai/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 02:00:00Z3.0h0.008190→0.0080301.954%4
#22026-06-14 07:00:00Z0ms0.008100→0.0080101.111%1
#32026-06-14 11:00:00Z1.0h0.008100→0.0080300.864%2

/api/asset/hl-xai/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
100.16%
σ per bar = 0.000437
Mean return (annualised)
-1431.02%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.29
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.68%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 3563 bars

/api/asset/hl-xai/risk · same metrics, JSON