HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #175

Austria

Primary · Yes
0.4¢
Counter · No
99.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-austria-175 · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-austria-175/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
Yes mid · live
0.4¢
No mid · live
99.7¢
Yes · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0017 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0016, 0.0035] · R²=0.063▼ FALLING -0.63%σ EXTREME 24.11%LAST 0.00160.00350.00300.00260.00210.0016μ = 0.0017max 0.0035min 0.0016dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 bars · close 0.16¢ · 24h -0.63%
Probability split · live
Yes 0.4%No 99.7%NO99.7%99.65¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.034 / 1.00 bits (3%) · informative — one side favoured
Yes
0.4%0.4¢285.71×▬ +0.00pp
No
99.7%99.7¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
primary vs counter implied %
Volume · per-hour contracts · live
n=24 · Σ=156 · μ=6.5 · σ=20.2 · CV=3.11BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=210255176101μ = 710150%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 156 · peak 101
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
▲Yes mid
0.350¢
▼No mid
99.650¢
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
Σarb gap |1 − Σ|
0.00pp
Δ24h candles
24 bars
Δ24h close
0.16¢
Δ24h change
-0.63%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (24 hourly observations)
n=24 · μ=0.0017 · σ=0.0004 · range [0.0016, 0.0035] · R²=0.063▼ FALLING -0.63%σ EXTREME 24.11%LAST 0.00160.00350.00300.00260.00210.0016μ = 0.0017max 0.0035min 0.0016dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
range [0.16¢, 0.35¢] · span 0.20pp · MA(5) latest 0.20¢
Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour
n=24 · up 24 · down 0 (100% up) · range [0.0016, 0.0035] · σ=0.0004 · CV=0.24 · bodyµ=4%BEARISH -0.63%CLOSE 0.0016 vs OPEN 0.0016 (-0.63%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00160.00350.00300.00260.00210.0016μ close = 0.0017O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)125.5%O0.002 H0.004 L0.002 C0.004 (+125.48%)O0.002 H0.004 L0.002 C0.004 (+125.48%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)O0.002 H0.002 L0.002 C0.002 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars · last close 0.16¢
Hourly traded contracts
n=24 · Σ=156 · μ=6.5 · σ=20.2 · CV=3.11BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=210255176101μ = 75 · 5.0% peak5 · 5.0% peak4 · 4.0% peak4 · 4.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak3 · 3.0% peak3 · 3.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak6 · 5.9% peak6 · 5.9% peak2 · 2.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak4 · 4.0% peak4 · 4.0% peak3 · 3.0% peak3 · 3.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak4 · 4.0% peak4 · 4.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak1 · 1.0% peak1 · 1.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak1 · 1.0% peak1 · 1.0% peak4 · 4.0% peak4 · 4.0% peak5 · 5.0% peak5 · 5.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak1 · 1.0% peak1 · 1.0% peak101101 · 100.0% peak101 · 100.0% peak3 · 3.0% peak3 · 3.0% peak1 · 1.0% peak1 · 1.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak2 · 2.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol = 156 · peak 101 · mean 6.5

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0005 · skew=-0.84 (left-skewed) · kurt=8.80 (leptokurtic (fat tails))211611501-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 4.8% peak-0.15pp-0.12pp-0.08pp-0.05pp-0.02pp210.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=21 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=21 · 100.0% peak0.05pp0.08pp0.11pp0.15pp10.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 1 · negative 1
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=-0.02 · kurt=8.50 · near 5 / mid 10 / far 8 · OLS slope=0.63 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.51σΔ=-1.51σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=17.24)
μ MEAN0.17¢95% CI: [0.15¢, 0.18¢]
σ STD DEV0.04ppσ² = 16.029×10⁻⁴ · CV = 24.11%
med MEDIAN0.16¢Q₁ 0.16¢ · Q₃ 0.16¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.20pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→0.05pp)
min 0.16¢Q₁ 0.16¢med 0.16¢Q₃ 0.16¢max 0.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁4.303right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂17.242leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.92
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.50 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.500negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.000lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.611persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.216fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.611
H = 0.611PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.500k=2-0.000k=3+0.000k=4-0.000k=5-0.0000+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.22)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.50 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.72very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.22)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
OUTCOME ID#175
SLUGaustria-175
QUOTE TOKENUSDC
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.35¢implied prob 0.35% · decimal odds 285.71×
COUNTER · NO99.65¢implied prob 99.65% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.35¢
99.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYTHIN
24H VOLUME156 contracts
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.993 · entropy 0.034 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHTHIN100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Yes 0.4%No 99.7%YES p̂0.4%H = 0.034 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (Yes)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
Yes285.71×(0¢)No1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.034 bits (3% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if Austria is officially declared the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.02%MILD BEARISH -0.00%BEST+0.20%07hWORST-0.20%08hTYPICAL |Δ|0.02%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.00%+0.20%-0.00%0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 00h0.00% · 00h·00h0.00% · 01h0.00% · 01h·01h0.00% · 02h0.00% · 02h·02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h0.00% · 04h0.00% · 04h·04h0.00% · 05h0.00% · 05h·05h0.00% · 06h0.00% · 06h·06h0.20% · 07h0.20% · 07h0.20%07h★ BEST-0.20% · 08h-0.20% · 08h-0.20%08h▼ WORST0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 1BREADTH4% up · 4% down · 91% flat
1 up bars · 1 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.017%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsFLAT · NO MATERIAL MOVEMENTFINAL-0.00%MAX DD-0.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.20%UNDERWATER3/24 (13%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0000 · peak 1.0020 · range [1.0000, 1.0020]1.00201.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0020UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.20% · shallow0%-0.20%▼ TROUGH -0.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.20%bar 22-24 · 3 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER13% of session · 3/24 bars
final equity 1.0000 (-0.00%) · max DD -0.20% · time-under-water 3/24 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −3 (5% positive) · μ=2.18 · σ=9.61UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -0.13 (-0.24σ vs μ)41.8620.930.00-20.93-41.86μ = 2.180.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0041.8641.86-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.13-0.13v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.135 · range [-0.13, 41.86] · μ 2.182 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=2.4852 · σ=5.0405 · range [0.0000, 13.0047] · R²=0.501▬ FLATσ EXTREME 202.83%LAST 13.004713.00479.75356.50243.25120.0000μ = 2.4852max 13.0047min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 13.00% · range [0.00%, 13.00%] · μ 2.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −4 (0% positive) · μ=-0.082 · σ=0.186MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.500 (-2.24σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.0820.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.050-0.050-0.499-0.499-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.500 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§13 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·2 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
115.9671
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5339
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2568
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.8143
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
—
p-VALUE (log scale)
—
no decision possibleinsufficient sign variety (1+/1-)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2345
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2965
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.2837
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0224
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.524 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=3.51e-7 · top T=2.09h (17.3%) · top-3 cover 49.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)6.7e-75.0e-73.3e-71.7e-70.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 23.0 · power 1.25e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 23.0 · power 1.25e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 11.5 · power 4.89e-8 · 1.3% energyperiod 11.5 · power 4.89e-8 · 1.3% energyperiod 7.7 · power 1.07e-7 · 2.8% energyperiod 7.7 · power 1.07e-7 · 2.8% energyperiod 5.8 · power 1.81e-7 · 4.7% energyperiod 5.8 · power 1.81e-7 · 4.7% energyperiod 4.6 · power 2.67e-7 · 6.9% energyperiod 4.6 · power 2.67e-7 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.8 · power 3.59e-7 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.8 · power 3.59e-7 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.3 · power 4.48e-7 · 11.6% energyperiod 3.3 · power 4.48e-7 · 11.6% energyperiod 2.9 · power 5.29e-7 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.9 · power 5.29e-7 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.6 · power 5.96e-7 · 15.4% energyperiod 2.6 · power 5.96e-7 · 15.4% energyperiod 2.3 · power 6.44e-7 · 16.7% energyperiod 2.3 · power 6.44e-7 · 16.7% energyperiod 2.1 · power 6.68e-7 · 17.3% energyperiod 2.1 · power 6.68e-7 · 17.3% energy50% by T=2.9h#1 dominantT=2.09h#2T=2.30h#3T=2.56hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.09h (freq 0.478) · concentrates 17.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.861e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.003pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0035 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.003pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
0.04pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.0035
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
27.8pp
peak 0.4¢ → trough 0.3¢
Median step
0.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
285.714
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+28471
$100 wins $28471
FractionalUK
284.71 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$28471.43
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.034 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.034 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
8.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:41:33 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:41:36 UTC
History points
24 closes · 24 counter-side closes
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4603cd835b8a0ea84f472691f1d539a3c6245c25cc4ea6b851cd9a34859f20b8 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,681HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.84HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.6

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
2254.15%
σ per bar = 0.009832
Mean return (annualised)
-897.38%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.40
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
27.82%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 217 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-austria-175/risk · same metrics, JSON