HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HMSTR

HMSTR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hmstr · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -7.37%
realized vol (ann.)
451.63%
max drawdown
3.98%
sharpe
48.25
ulcer index
1.88%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.54%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
11615.10
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.59%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.17
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
6069.64
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.17
upside/downside
roll spread
17.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-7.37%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -7.37%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-hmstr/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.000
24h Δ · live
-7.37%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
HMSTR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · R²=0.497▼ FALLING -7.33%σ NORMAL 4.92%LAST 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ = 0.0002max 0.0002min 0.0002dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,570,446,803 · μ=102817872.1 · σ=96396464.1 · CV=0.94BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130105,961,601211,923,202317,884,803423,846,404μ = 102817872423,846,40450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 423846404 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.8s
$mark $
$0.0002
$mid $
$0.0002
◉prev-day close
$0.0002
Δ24h Δ %
-7.368%
$24h vol $
$436.93k
◐open interest $
$206.95k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · R²=0.497▼ FALLING -7.33%σ NORMAL 4.92%LAST 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ = 0.0002max 0.0002min 0.0002dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0002 · 24h -7.37% · range $[0.0002, 0.0002]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.05 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -7.33%CLOSE 0.0002 vs OPEN 0.0002 (-7.33%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ close = 0.0002O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.57%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.57%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.19%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.19%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.10%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.10%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.08%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.08%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)-4.0%O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.98%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.98%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.78%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.78%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.37%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.37%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.82%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.82%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.23%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.23%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+4.24%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+4.24%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.56%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.56%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,570,446,803 · μ=102817872.1 · σ=96396464.1 · CV=0.94BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=130105,961,601211,923,202317,884,803423,846,404μ = 10281787272,655,852 · 17.1% peak72,655,852 · 17.1% peak45,959,873 · 10.8% peak45,959,873 · 10.8% peak124,878,559 · 29.5% peak124,878,559 · 29.5% peak140,001,332 · 33.0% peak140,001,332 · 33.0% peak91,797,862 · 21.7% peak91,797,862 · 21.7% peak75,168,686 · 17.7% peak75,168,686 · 17.7% peak56,233,535 · 13.3% peak56,233,535 · 13.3% peak105,581,383 · 24.9% peak105,581,383 · 24.9% peak73,861,462 · 17.4% peak73,861,462 · 17.4% peak117,898,041 · 27.8% peak117,898,041 · 27.8% peak71,712,466 · 16.9% peak71,712,466 · 16.9% peak96,830,802 · 22.8% peak96,830,802 · 22.8% peak375,965,370 · 88.7% peak375,965,370 · 88.7% peak38,167,565 · 9.0% peak38,167,565 · 9.0% peak41,639,154 · 9.8% peak41,639,154 · 9.8% peak105,204,607 · 24.8% peak105,204,607 · 24.8% peak72,652,493 · 17.1% peak72,652,493 · 17.1% peak55,381,881 · 13.1% peak55,381,881 · 13.1% peak82,523,681 · 19.5% peak82,523,681 · 19.5% peak43,556,251 · 10.3% peak43,556,251 · 10.3% peak162,283,260 · 38.3% peak162,283,260 · 38.3% peak30,982,799 · 7.3% peak30,982,799 · 7.3% peak423,846,404423,846,404 · 100.0% peak423,846,404 · 100.0% peak51,491,481 · 12.1% peak51,491,481 · 12.1% peak14,172,004 · 3.3% peak14,172,004 · 3.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2570446803 · peak 423846404 · CV 0.94

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0031 · σ=0.0200 · skew=0.30 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.42 (mesokurtic)75420 4-314.49bpbin -314.49bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -314.49bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 1-245.73bpbin -245.73bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -245.73bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 4-176.97bpbin -176.97bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -176.97bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 1-108.20bpbin -108.20bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -108.20bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-39.44bp 729.32bpbin 29.32bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 29.32bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 498.09bpbin 98.09bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 98.09bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak166.85bp 1235.61bpbin 235.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 235.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1304.37bpbin 304.37bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 304.37bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak373.14bp 1441.90bpbin 441.90bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 441.90bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.35 · kurt=-0.28 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0002
Mid price
$0.0002
24h change
-7.37%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0002

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.09)
μ MEAN0.0002$95% CI: [0.0002$, 0.0002$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.92%
med MEDIAN0.0002$Q₁ 0.0002$ · Q₃ 0.0002$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0002$Q₁ 0.0002$med 0.0002$Q₃ 0.0002$max 0.0002$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.474approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.089platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.41
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-14.07
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.317182%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.150
σᵣ STD / h2.110488%σ²ᵣ = 4.454×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.65×
σ ANNUALISED197.53%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.110%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-14.07negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.93downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.37approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.04mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.85
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2778.51%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKEXTREME · 95% VaR 3.35%
VaR₉₅ (h)3.352%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.462%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)3.430%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN15.18%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−3.352%VaR₉₉−3.462%ES₉₅−3.430%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsevere drawdown · capital threatened · 19h duration
PEAK0.02$
−15.18% drawdown over 19h
0.02$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsevere drawdown · capital threatenedrecovery needed: +17.90% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
47.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.776 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0002
Bollinger MA
$0.0002
Bollinger lower
$0.0002

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.077within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.226lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.768strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.766significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.768
H = 0.768STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.077k=2+0.226k=3-0.172k=4-0.047k=5+0.0740+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.77)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.61very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.77)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$436.93k
Open interest (USD)
$206.95k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.11x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-7.121× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.561× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.780×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.76% · worst -3.49% · typical |Δ| 1.64%BEARISH SESSION -7.61%BEST+4.76%10hWORST-3.49%21hTYPICAL |Δ|1.64%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-7.61%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.50% · Σ +4.03%US · 16-24 UTCμ -1.23% · Σ -9.81%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -7.61%+0.00%-16.47%-1.58% · 13h-1.58% · 13h-1.58%13h-3.24% · 14h-3.24% · 14h-3.24%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h1.09% · 16h1.09% · 16h1.09%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-1.64% · 18h-1.64% · 18h-1.64%18h-3.37% · 19h-3.37% · 19h-3.37%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-3.49% · 21h-3.49% · 21h-3.49%21h▼ WORST0.59% · 22h0.59% · 22h0.59%22h-2.99% · 23h-2.99% · 23h-2.99%23h2.40% · 00h2.40% · 00h2.40%00h-1.79% · 01h-1.79% · 01h-1.79%01h1.20% · 02h1.20% · 02h1.20%02h0.59% · 03h0.59% · 03h0.59%03h-2.40% · 04h-2.40% · 04h-2.40%04h1.20% · 05h1.20% · 05h1.20%05h-1.20% · 06h-1.20% · 06h-1.20%06h-1.83% · 07h-1.83% · 07h-1.83%07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h1.23% · 09h1.23% · 09h1.23%09h4.76% · 10h4.76% · 10h4.76%10h★ BEST2.87% · 11h2.87% · 11h2.87%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+4.03%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH38% up · 42% down · 21% flat
9 up bars · 10 down · best 4.76% · worst -3.49% · typical |Δ| 1.645%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -7.82%FINAL-7.82%MAX DD-15.49%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9218 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.8451, 1.0000]1.00000.8451break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -15.49% · severe0%-15.49%▼ TROUGH -15.49%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -15.49%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -15.49%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9218 (-7.82%) · max DD -15.49% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-26.41 · σ=36.99UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 46.65 (+1.98σ vs μ)95.9547.970.00-47.97-95.95μ = -26.41-53.92-53.92-60.22-60.22-38.39-38.39-60.46-60.46-68.69-68.69-95.95-95.95-43.19-43.19-36.31-36.31-26.43-26.43-0.00-0.00-21.30-21.309.999.99-23.46-23.46-23.78-23.78-39.81-39.81-30.23-30.2327.5927.5936.1036.1046.6546.65v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 46.651 · range [-95.95, 46.65] · μ -26.410 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=182.6853 · σ=33.6151 · range [133.3890, 235.2297] · R²=0.065▲ RISING +50.88%σ EXTREME 18.40%LAST 219.7133235.2297209.7696184.3094158.8492133.3890μ = 182.6853max 235.2297min 133.3890dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 219.71% · range [133.39%, 235.23%] · μ 182.69% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.288 · σ=0.435MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.282 (+1.31σ vs μ)0.8260.4130.000-0.413-0.826μ = -0.2880.1990.1990.2010.2010.2010.201-0.119-0.119-0.587-0.587-0.826-0.826-0.619-0.619-0.742-0.742-0.657-0.657-0.732-0.732-0.559-0.559-0.543-0.543-0.561-0.561-0.292-0.292-0.638-0.638-0.274-0.2740.2680.2680.5300.5300.2820.282v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.282 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.5486
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7601
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.7423
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7421
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2233
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2028
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7227
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4698
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1075
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.8562
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3919
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.261 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.47e-4 · top T=8.00h (16.9%) · top-3 cover 47.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.1e-46.8e-44.5e-42.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.48e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.48e-4 · 12.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.06e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.06e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.08e-4 · 16.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.08e-4 · 16.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.28e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.28e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.40e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.40e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.06e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.06e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.21e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.14e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.14e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.29e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.29e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.07e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.07e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.52e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.52e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.78e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.78e-4 · 8.9% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 16.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.361e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.87× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.82× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.17%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.17%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.87×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.82×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.43×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.72×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.71× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 12.10400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.71× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.005
annualized 12.10
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.12%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.4%
0.90×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.07×1.11×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 10.98σ ann 389% · Sortino 3.10 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%263%527%790%1054%1317%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)388.8%Ann. vol σ1097.9%Sharpe (ann)309.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.012% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:17:40 UTC
Snapshot age
2.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:17:43 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
859b3fbc0d7cf24da0983f0e768ca683607a0963189783dd40901ac4d54cd705 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$13.49K
bid $2.35K · ask $11.14K
Mid price
0.000177
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
56.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.119
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.140
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hmstr/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00017728.33bp0.0001771FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00017728.33bp0.0001771FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000187584.17bp0.00030720PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00017628.33bp0.0001761FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00017571.76bp0.0001752FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000171329.90bp0.00015020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-hmstr/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.57B

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hmstr/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.071 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.34B
real volume
Sell weight
$1.16B
real volume
Net delta
$176.93M
buyers net
Imbalance
7.08%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
7.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-hmstr/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 10.33% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 18:00:00Z8.0h0.000184→0.00016510.326%9
#22026-06-13 13:00:00Z3.0h0.000191→0.0001824.712%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z5.0h0.000169→0.0001624.142%6

/api/asset/hl-hmstr/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
388.82%
σ per bar = 0.001696
Mean return (annualised)
4268.68%
μ per bar = 0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
10.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.88%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 2661 bars

/api/asset/hl-hmstr/risk · same metrics, JSON