HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

APT

APT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-apt · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -3.08%
realized vol (ann.)
40.59%
max drawdown
1.99%
sharpe
-107.82
ulcer index
1.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.88%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4271.74
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.91%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2295.12
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.85
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-3.08%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
8.55%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -3.08%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 9.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-apt/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH213ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.655
24h Δ · live
-3.08%
24h vol · live
$0.7M
APT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.6678 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.6557, 0.6791] · R²=0.863▼ FALLING -2.87%σ LOW 0.87%LAST 0.65570.67910.67330.66740.66150.6557μ = 0.6678max 0.6791min 0.6557dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.66
Funding direction · live
Long fee 47.6%Short fee 52.4%SHORT FEE52.4%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
47.6%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
52.4%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000976% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,097,735 · μ=43909.4 · σ=21798.4 · CV=0.50STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14025,40550,81076,215101,620μ = 43909101,620.0150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 101620 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
213ms
$mark $
$0.655
$mid $
$0.6551
◉prev-day close
$0.6758
Δ24h Δ %
-3.078%
$24h vol $
$722.90k
◐open interest $
$4.41M
%funding (1h)
0.000976%
%funding (yr)
+8.55%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.6678 · σ=0.0058 · range [0.6557, 0.6791] · R²=0.863▼ FALLING -2.87%σ LOW 0.87%LAST 0.65570.67910.67330.66740.66150.6557μ = 0.6678max 0.6791min 0.6557dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.86μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.6550 · 24h -3.08% · range $[0.6557, 0.6791]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.6548, 0.6844] · σ=0.0058 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=32%BEARISH -2.67%CLOSE 0.6557 vs OPEN 0.6737 (-2.67%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.65570.68440.67700.66960.66220.6548μ close = 0.6678O0.674 H0.679 L0.673 C0.675 (+0.21%)O0.674 H0.679 L0.673 C0.675 (+0.21%)O0.676 H0.680 L0.673 C0.677 (+0.16%)O0.676 H0.680 L0.673 C0.677 (+0.16%)O0.677 H0.684 L0.676 C0.679 (+0.28%)O0.677 H0.684 L0.676 C0.679 (+0.28%)-0.8%O0.679 H0.679 L0.669 C0.673 (-0.82%)O0.679 H0.679 L0.669 C0.673 (-0.82%)O0.674 H0.678 L0.669 C0.673 (-0.01%)O0.674 H0.678 L0.669 C0.673 (-0.01%)O0.673 H0.675 L0.669 C0.671 (-0.40%)O0.673 H0.675 L0.669 C0.671 (-0.40%)O0.671 H0.674 L0.669 C0.670 (-0.18%)O0.671 H0.674 L0.669 C0.670 (-0.18%)O0.670 H0.671 L0.667 C0.670 (+0.06%)O0.670 H0.671 L0.667 C0.670 (+0.06%)O0.671 H0.678 L0.668 C0.672 (+0.27%)O0.671 H0.678 L0.668 C0.672 (+0.27%)O0.673 H0.674 L0.669 C0.669 (-0.61%)O0.673 H0.674 L0.669 C0.669 (-0.61%)O0.669 H0.673 L0.668 C0.670 (+0.27%)O0.669 H0.673 L0.668 C0.670 (+0.27%)O0.671 H0.672 L0.668 C0.669 (-0.16%)O0.671 H0.672 L0.668 C0.669 (-0.16%)O0.669 H0.672 L0.668 C0.670 (+0.03%)O0.669 H0.672 L0.668 C0.670 (+0.03%)O0.670 H0.673 L0.667 C0.668 (-0.30%)O0.670 H0.673 L0.667 C0.668 (-0.30%)O0.667 H0.668 L0.664 C0.667 (+0.01%)O0.667 H0.668 L0.664 C0.667 (+0.01%)O0.667 H0.669 L0.662 C0.664 (-0.54%)O0.667 H0.669 L0.662 C0.664 (-0.54%)O0.663 H0.665 L0.658 C0.664 (+0.08%)O0.663 H0.665 L0.658 C0.664 (+0.08%)O0.664 H0.668 L0.659 C0.660 (-0.53%)O0.664 H0.668 L0.659 C0.660 (-0.53%)O0.661 H0.664 L0.660 C0.662 (+0.26%)O0.661 H0.664 L0.660 C0.662 (+0.26%)O0.662 H0.668 L0.661 C0.665 (+0.45%)O0.662 H0.668 L0.661 C0.665 (+0.45%)O0.665 H0.667 L0.661 C0.665 (+0.11%)O0.665 H0.667 L0.661 C0.665 (+0.11%)O0.666 H0.669 L0.664 C0.664 (-0.30%)O0.666 H0.669 L0.664 C0.664 (-0.30%)O0.664 H0.664 L0.662 C0.663 (-0.14%)O0.664 H0.664 L0.662 C0.663 (-0.14%)O0.662 H0.664 L0.657 C0.657 (-0.75%)O0.662 H0.664 L0.657 C0.657 (-0.75%)O0.657 H0.658 L0.655 C0.656 (-0.26%)O0.657 H0.658 L0.655 C0.656 (-0.26%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,097,735 · μ=43909.4 · σ=21798.4 · CV=0.50STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=14025,40550,81076,215101,620μ = 4390932,619.06 · 32.1% peak32,619.06 · 32.1% peak32,600.88 · 32.1% peak32,600.88 · 32.1% peak48,989.26 · 48.2% peak48,989.26 · 48.2% peak46,674.86 · 45.9% peak46,674.86 · 45.9% peak63,246.32 · 62.2% peak63,246.32 · 62.2% peak37,633.02 · 37.0% peak37,633.02 · 37.0% peak43,266.62 · 42.6% peak43,266.62 · 42.6% peak28,273.87 · 27.8% peak28,273.87 · 27.8% peak15,592.85 · 15.3% peak15,592.85 · 15.3% peak19,852.47 · 19.5% peak19,852.47 · 19.5% peak36,388.69 · 35.8% peak36,388.69 · 35.8% peak79,411.16 · 78.1% peak79,411.16 · 78.1% peak45,806.85 · 45.1% peak45,806.85 · 45.1% peak28,261.92 · 27.8% peak28,261.92 · 27.8% peak40,511.93 · 39.9% peak40,511.93 · 39.9% peak40,764.9 · 40.1% peak40,764.9 · 40.1% peak101,620.01101,620.01 · 100.0% peak101,620.01 · 100.0% peak55,280.66 · 54.4% peak55,280.66 · 54.4% peak44,220.6 · 43.5% peak44,220.6 · 43.5% peak91,264.94 · 89.8% peak91,264.94 · 89.8% peak62,999.63 · 62.0% peak62,999.63 · 62.0% peak24,988.01 · 24.6% peak24,988.01 · 24.6% peak32,535.04 · 32.0% peak32,535.04 · 32.0% peak25,274.26 · 24.9% peak25,274.26 · 24.9% peak19,657.27 · 19.3% peak19,657.27 · 19.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1097735 · peak 101620 · CV 0.50

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0013 · σ=0.0034 · skew=-0.34 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.82 (mesokurtic)54310 2-77.53bpbin -77.53bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -77.53bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-66.99bp 3-56.45bpbin -56.45bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -56.45bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak-45.91bp 1-35.37bpbin -35.37bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -35.37bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 4-24.83bpbin -24.83bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -24.83bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-14.29bpbin -14.29bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -14.29bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 4-3.75bpbin -3.75bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -3.75bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 26.79bpbin 6.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 6.79bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak17.33bp 527.87bpbin 27.87bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 27.87bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 138.41bpbin 38.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 38.41bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.34 · kurt=-0.71 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.655
Mid price
$0.6551
24h change
-3.08%
Mark–mid spread
1.53 bps
Prev-day close
$0.6758

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.6678$95% CI: [0.6656$, 0.6701$]
σ STD DEV0.0058$σ² = 0.339×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.87%
med MEDIAN0.6688$Q₁ 0.6638$ · Q₃ 0.6708$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0234$ · IQR 0.0070$ (1.349σ→0.0079$)
min 0.6557$Q₁ 0.6638$med 0.6688$Q₃ 0.6708$max 0.6791$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.138approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.630mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.12
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.02
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-32.07
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.121489%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.343
σᵣ STD / h0.354561%σ²ᵣ = 0.126×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.92×
σ ANNUALISED33.19%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.355%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-32.07negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-25.37downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.36approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.59mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.79
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1064.25%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.75%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.752%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.819%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.808%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.45%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.752%VaR₉₉−0.819%ES₉₅−0.808%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK67.91$
−3.45% drawdown over 22h
65.57$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.57% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
26.7 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.051 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.6751
Bollinger MA
$0.6659
Bollinger lower
$0.6566

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.130within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.068lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.852strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-12.047significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.852
H = 0.852STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.130k=2+0.068k=3-0.230k=4-0.137k=5-0.3960+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.05)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.83very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=12.05)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$722.90k
Open interest (USD)
$4.41M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.16x
1h funding
0.000976%
Funding (annualised)
+8.55%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.44% · worst -0.83% · typical |Δ| 0.29%MILD BEARISH -2.92%BEST+0.44%08hWORST-0.83%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.29%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.92%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 4down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.43%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.29%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.92%+0.59%-2.92%0.31% · 14h0.31% · 14h0.31%14h0.28% · 15h0.28% · 15h0.28%15h-0.83% · 16h-0.83% · 16h-0.83%16h▼ WORST0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.40% · 18h-0.40% · 18h-0.40%18h-0.12% · 19h-0.12% · 19h-0.12%19h0.04% · 20h0.04% · 20h0.04%20h0.33% · 21h0.33% · 21h0.33%21h-0.55% · 22h-0.55% · 22h-0.55%22h0.24% · 23h0.24% · 23h0.24%23h-0.13% · 00h-0.13% · 00h-0.13%00h0.01% · 01h0.01% · 01h0.01%01h-0.28% · 02h-0.28% · 02h-0.28%02h-0.07% · 03h-0.07% · 03h-0.07%03h-0.53% · 04h-0.53% · 04h-0.53%04h0.02% · 05h0.02% · 05h0.02%05h-0.53% · 06h-0.53% · 06h-0.53%06h0.32% · 07h0.32% · 07h0.32%07h0.44% · 08h0.44% · 08h0.44%08h★ BEST0.03% · 09h0.03% · 09h0.03%09h-0.23% · 10h-0.23% · 10h-0.23%10h-0.20% · 11h-0.20% · 11h-0.20%11h-0.79% · 12h-0.79% · 12h-0.79%12h-0.27% · 13h-0.27% · 13h-0.27%13hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.43%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 54% down · 4% flat
10 up bars · 13 down · best 0.44% · worst -0.83% · typical |Δ| 0.290%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.89%)FINAL-2.89%MAX DD-3.46%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.59%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 4EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9711 · peak 1.0059 · range [0.9711, 1.0059]1.00590.9711break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0059UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.46% · moderate0%-3.46%▼ TROUGH -3.46%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.46%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.46%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9711 (-2.89%) · max DD -3.46% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-30.32 · σ=23.54UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -39.53 (-0.39σ vs μ)84.8142.410.00-42.41-84.81μ = -30.32-27.28-27.28-40.79-40.79-37.81-37.81-34.28-34.28-20.59-20.59-9.60-9.60-2.98-2.98-18.40-18.40-45.89-45.89-45.74-45.74-73.85-73.85-84.81-84.81-50.91-50.91-13.77-13.77-9.72-9.722.002.00-7.14-7.14-15.03-15.03-39.53-39.53v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -39.534 · range [-84.81, 2.00] · μ -30.323 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.2817 · σ=6.1151 · range [19.5587, 41.2744] · R²=0.007▼ FALLING -7.50%σ EXTREME 18.94%LAST 37.543841.274435.845530.416624.987719.5587μ = 32.2817max 41.2744min 19.5587dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 37.54% · range [19.56%, 41.27%] · μ 32.28% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.304 · σ=0.337MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.239 (+1.61σ vs μ)0.7060.3530.000-0.353-0.706μ = -0.304-0.248-0.248-0.585-0.585-0.058-0.058-0.304-0.304-0.465-0.465-0.673-0.673-0.682-0.682-0.706-0.706-0.520-0.520-0.161-0.161-0.569-0.569-0.659-0.659-0.649-0.649-0.063-0.063-0.028-0.028-0.053-0.0530.0550.0550.3520.3520.2390.239v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.239 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8568
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6516
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.8883
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1612
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.2438
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9265
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.1323
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8723
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0048
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4224
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.756 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.49e-5 · top T=2.00h (38.0%) · top-3 cover 69.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)6.8e-55.1e-53.4e-51.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.61e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.61e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.30e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.30e-6 · 4.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.06e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.06e-5 · 17.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.02e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.02e-6 · 3.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.15e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.15e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.75e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.75e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.47e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.47e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.35e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.35e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.85e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.85e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.95e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.95e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.79e-5 · 38.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.79e-5 · 38.0% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 38.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.785e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-63.14×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -35.02400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.015
annualized -35.02
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -27.13σ ann 43% · Sortino -18.17 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3255%-2594%-1932%-1271%-610%52%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)43.0%Ann. vol σ-2712.6%Sharpe (ann)-1817.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.6290.6430.6560.6690.6820.696t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:28:44 UTC
Snapshot age
213ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:28:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6af06ab0f1932798d0031b52a952d53a2abda7310c054cfdf25a13fd39f3213f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.34K
bid $50 · ask $1.29K
Depth within 5bp
$4.87K
bid $50 · ask $4.82K
Depth within 10bp
$14.91K
bid $3.64K · ask $11.27K
Depth within 50bp
$194.79K
bid $62.75K · ask $132.04K
Mid price
0.655150
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.354
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.324
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-apt/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6552000.76bp0.6552001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6554985.31bp0.6558006FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.65626617.03bp0.65670015FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.6548155.11bp0.6548002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.65440611.36bp0.6542008FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.65362623.27bp0.65290020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+9.764e-6
0.00098% / hr
Annualised APR
8.559%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
42.7d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
42.7d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-8.559%42.7d1.17y
SHORTRECEIVE8.559%42.7d1.17y

/api/asset/hl-apt/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.10M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-apt/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.047 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
10 / 14
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$507.76K
real volume
Sell weight
$557.36K
real volume
Net delta
$49.60K
sellers net
Imbalance
-4.66%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
4.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-apt/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.47% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z1.0h0.665500→0.6557001.473%2
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.669600→0.6603001.389%3
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.679100→0.6700001.340%4

/api/asset/hl-apt/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
42.96%
σ per bar = 0.000187
Mean return (annualised)
-1165.37%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-27.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.99%
peak 0.67 → trough 0.66 over 1650 bars

/api/asset/hl-apt/risk · same metrics, JSON