HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ZEC

ZEC-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-zec · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.03%
realized vol (ann.)
83.79%
max drawdown
2.48%
sharpe
-22.64
ulcer index
0.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.60%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2577.84
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.62%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.96
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1171.04
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.96
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.03%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 30%
  • 24h change +2.03%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ZEC/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$466.550
24h Δ · live
2.03%
24h vol · live
$94.4M
ZEC · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=464.0816 · σ=8.9311 · range [446.8600, 476.8000] · R²=0.598▲ RISING +2.81%σ NORMAL 1.92%LAST 466.5600476.8000469.3150461.8300454.3450446.8600μ = 464.0816max 476.8000min 446.8600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $466.56
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=221,353 · μ=8854.1 · σ=7383.4 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=807,72715,45523,18230,910μ = 885430,909.5850%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 30910 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.2s
$mark $
$466.55
$mid $
$466.615
◉prev-day close
$457.28
Δ24h Δ %
+2.027%
$24h vol $
$94.37M
◐open interest $
$213.23M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=464.0816 · σ=8.9311 · range [446.8600, 476.8000] · R²=0.598▲ RISING +2.81%σ NORMAL 1.92%LAST 466.5600476.8000469.3150461.8300454.3450446.8600μ = 464.0816max 476.8000min 446.8600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $466.5500 · 24h 2.03% · range $[446.8600, 476.8000]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [445.1000, 480.3100] · σ=8.9311 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=42%BULLISH +2.10%CLOSE 466.5600 vs OPEN 456.9700 (+2.10%)&#9650; CLOSE 466.5600480.3100471.5075462.7050453.9025445.1000μ close = 464.0816O456.970 H462.510 L446.170 C453.790 (-0.70%)O456.970 H462.510 L446.170 C453.790 (-0.70%)O453.750 H455.880 L451.520 C453.940 (+0.04%)O453.750 H455.880 L451.520 C453.940 (+0.04%)O453.770 H455.370 L451.500 C454.210 (+0.10%)O453.770 H455.370 L451.500 C454.210 (+0.10%)O454.230 H459.590 L445.720 C446.860 (-1.62%)O454.230 H459.590 L445.720 C446.860 (-1.62%)O446.830 H457.800 L445.100 C457.330 (+2.35%)O446.830 H457.800 L445.100 C457.330 (+2.35%)O457.330 H458.400 L452.760 C454.030 (-0.72%)O457.330 H458.400 L452.760 C454.030 (-0.72%)O454.060 H455.500 L448.000 C451.470 (-0.57%)O454.060 H455.500 L448.000 C451.470 (-0.57%)O451.670 H454.730 L447.220 C453.270 (+0.35%)O451.670 H454.730 L447.220 C453.270 (+0.35%)O453.320 H453.980 L448.960 C451.840 (-0.33%)O453.320 H453.980 L448.960 C451.840 (-0.33%)3.3%O451.500 H467.400 L451.500 C466.370 (+3.29%)O451.500 H467.400 L451.500 C466.370 (+3.29%)O466.610 H480.310 L463.160 C476.800 (+2.18%)O466.610 H480.310 L463.160 C476.800 (+2.18%)O476.880 H478.410 L470.440 C472.700 (-0.88%)O476.880 H478.410 L470.440 C472.700 (-0.88%)O472.720 H474.170 L467.000 C471.210 (-0.32%)O472.720 H474.170 L467.000 C471.210 (-0.32%)O471.000 H471.730 L466.870 C468.380 (-0.56%)O471.000 H471.730 L466.870 C468.380 (-0.56%)O468.410 H472.020 L465.770 C466.830 (-0.34%)O468.410 H472.020 L465.770 C466.830 (-0.34%)O466.860 H472.400 L466.000 C471.330 (+0.96%)O466.860 H472.400 L466.000 C471.330 (+0.96%)O471.400 H477.100 L468.380 C470.060 (-0.28%)O471.400 H477.100 L468.380 C470.060 (-0.28%)O470.140 H472.270 L467.430 C471.040 (+0.19%)O470.140 H472.270 L467.430 C471.040 (+0.19%)O470.900 H471.240 L468.350 C468.540 (-0.50%)O470.900 H471.240 L468.350 C468.540 (-0.50%)O468.620 H472.330 L467.440 C468.970 (+0.07%)O468.620 H472.330 L467.440 C468.970 (+0.07%)O469.010 H474.760 L469.010 C472.080 (+0.65%)O469.010 H474.760 L469.010 C472.080 (+0.65%)O472.200 H474.890 L471.020 C471.260 (-0.20%)O472.200 H474.890 L471.020 C471.260 (-0.20%)O471.340 H472.360 L468.650 C469.810 (-0.32%)O471.340 H472.360 L468.650 C469.810 (-0.32%)O469.710 H475.740 L469.060 C473.360 (+0.78%)O469.710 H475.740 L469.060 C473.360 (+0.78%)O473.230 H474.570 L462.870 C466.560 (-1.41%)O473.230 H474.570 L462.870 C466.560 (-1.41%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=221,353 · μ=8854.1 · σ=7383.4 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=807,72715,45523,18230,910μ = 885430,909.5830,909.58 · 100.0% peak30,909.58 · 100.0% peak27,603.02 · 89.3% peak27,603.02 · 89.3% peak13,615.82 · 44.1% peak13,615.82 · 44.1% peak14,637.49 · 47.4% peak14,637.49 · 47.4% peak7,102.51 · 23.0% peak7,102.51 · 23.0% peak7,419.23 · 24.0% peak7,419.23 · 24.0% peak7,945.01 · 25.7% peak7,945.01 · 25.7% peak5,264.61 · 17.0% peak5,264.61 · 17.0% peak4,850.58 · 15.7% peak4,850.58 · 15.7% peak9,195.85 · 29.8% peak9,195.85 · 29.8% peak20,395.06 · 66.0% peak20,395.06 · 66.0% peak8,195.24 · 26.5% peak8,195.24 · 26.5% peak5,447.27 · 17.6% peak5,447.27 · 17.6% peak3,618.43 · 11.7% peak3,618.43 · 11.7% peak2,757.74 · 8.9% peak2,757.74 · 8.9% peak1,842.1 · 6.0% peak1,842.1 · 6.0% peak7,714.87 · 25.0% peak7,714.87 · 25.0% peak6,032.04 · 19.5% peak6,032.04 · 19.5% peak4,903.97 · 15.9% peak4,903.97 · 15.9% peak2,757.78 · 8.9% peak2,757.78 · 8.9% peak4,104.36 · 13.3% peak4,104.36 · 13.3% peak5,320.29 · 17.2% peak5,320.29 · 17.2% peak5,778.83 · 18.7% peak5,778.83 · 18.7% peak5,144.47 · 16.6% peak5,144.47 · 16.6% peak8,797.03 · 28.5% peak8,797.03 · 28.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 221353 · peak 30910 · CV 0.83

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0012 · σ=0.0106 · skew=1.06 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.84 (mesokurtic)65320 2-143.16bpbin -143.16bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -143.16bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1-103.19bpbin -103.19bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -103.19bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 4-63.21bpbin -63.21bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -63.21bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 6-23.24bpbin -23.24bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -23.24bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 416.73bpbin 16.73bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 16.73bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 356.70bpbin 56.70bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 56.70bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 196.67bpbin 96.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 96.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak136.64bp176.61bp 2216.58bpbin 216.58bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 216.58bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak256.55bp 1296.53bpbin 296.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 296.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.13 · kurt=1.04 · near 13 / mid 11 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$466.55
Mid price
$466.615
24h change
+2.03%
Mark–mid spread
1.39 bps
Prev-day close
$457.28

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.43)
μ MEAN464.0816$95% CI: [460.5806$, 467.5826$]
σ STD DEV8.9311$σ² = 79.765 · CV = 1.92%
med MEDIAN468.3800$Q₁ 454.0300$ · Q₃ 471.2100$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 29.9400$ · IQR 17.1800$ (1.349σ→12.0481$)
min 446.8600$Q₁ 454.0300$med 468.3800$Q₃ 471.2100$max 476.8000$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.474approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.427platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.48
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.70
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.35
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=9.54
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.115634%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.102
σᵣ STD / h1.134253%σ²ᵣ = 1.287×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.81×
σ ANNUALISED106.16%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.134%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)9.54excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)14.25strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.21right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.60leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.49
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1012.95%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.36%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.359%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.589%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.539%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.15%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.359%VaR₉₉−1.589%ES₉₅−1.539%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK47680.00$
−2.15% drawdown over 14h
46656.00$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.19% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
54.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.492 · within band
Bollinger upper
$482.1418
Bollinger MA
$466.7955
Bollinger lower
$451.4492

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.113within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.108lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.521random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.848significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.521
H = 0.521RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.113k=2-0.108k=3-0.035k=4-0.332k=5+0.2690+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.85)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.16moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.85)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$94.37M
Open interest (USD)
$213.23M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.44x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
8.988× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
4.494× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.247×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.17% · worst -1.63% · typical |Δ| 0.79%MILD BULLISH +2.78%BEST+3.17%22hWORST-1.63%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.79%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+2.78%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.22% · Σ -1.75%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.33%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.61% · Σ +4.85%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +2.78%+4.95%-1.54%0.03% · 14h0.03% · 14h0.03%14h0.06% · 15h0.06% · 15h0.06%15h-1.63% · 16h-1.63% · 16h-1.63%16h▼ WORST2.32% · 17h2.32% · 17h2.32%17h-0.72% · 18h-0.72% · 18h-0.72%18h-0.57% · 19h-0.57% · 19h-0.57%19h0.40% · 20h0.40% · 20h0.40%20h-0.32% · 21h-0.32% · 21h-0.32%21h3.17% · 22h3.17% · 22h3.17%22h★ BEST2.21% · 23h2.21% · 23h2.21%23h-0.86% · 00h-0.86% · 00h-0.86%00h-0.32% · 01h-0.32% · 01h-0.32%01h-0.60% · 02h-0.60% · 02h-0.60%02h-0.33% · 03h-0.33% · 03h-0.33%03h0.96% · 04h0.96% · 04h0.96%04h-0.27% · 05h-0.27% · 05h-0.27%05h0.21% · 06h0.21% · 06h0.21%06h-0.53% · 07h-0.53% · 07h-0.53%07h0.09% · 08h0.09% · 08h0.09%08h0.66% · 09h0.66% · 09h0.66%09h-0.17% · 10h-0.17% · 10h-0.17%10h-0.31% · 11h-0.31% · 11h-0.31%11h0.75% · 12h0.75% · 12h0.75%12h-1.45% · 13h-1.45% · 13h-1.45%13hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+4.85%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 3.17% · worst -1.63% · typical |Δ| 0.789%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.66%FINAL+2.66%MAX DD-2.18%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.95%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0266 · peak 1.0495 · range [0.9846, 1.0495]1.04950.9846break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0495UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.18% · moderate0%-2.18%▼ TROUGH -2.18%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.18%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.63%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -1.29%bar 6-9 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.18%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0266 (2.66%) · max DD -2.18% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=10.49 · σ=22.70MIXED EDGELAST -8.26 (-0.83σ vs μ)41.4620.730.00-20.73-41.46μ = 10.49-6.02-6.02-1.71-1.71-6.06-6.0640.6640.6640.1640.1638.2238.2241.4641.4630.1130.1129.9429.9414.0014.00-35.35-35.35-9.74-9.74-15.03-15.033.673.6731.2731.27-0.55-0.55-1.96-1.9614.5914.59-8.26-8.26v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.256 · range [-35.35, 41.46] · μ 10.495 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=99.2803 · σ=47.8872 · range [39.1500, 159.1273] · R²=0.634▼ FALLING -39.79%σ EXTREME 48.23%LAST 74.8871159.1273129.133099.138669.144339.1500μ = 99.2803max 159.1273min 39.1500dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 74.89% · range [39.15%, 159.13%] · μ 99.28% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.193 · σ=0.282MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.394 (-0.72σ vs μ)0.5960.2980.000-0.298-0.596μ = -0.193-0.583-0.583-0.596-0.596-0.581-0.581-0.169-0.1690.2830.283-0.028-0.0280.0570.0570.1360.1360.3610.361-0.176-0.176-0.020-0.020-0.164-0.164-0.287-0.287-0.558-0.558-0.228-0.228-0.308-0.308-0.178-0.178-0.225-0.225-0.394-0.394v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.394 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
8.4059
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0150
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5423
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2561
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6656
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4545
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2965
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1948
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (16 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6756
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6384
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5232
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.806 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.23e-4 · top T=2.67h (38.3%) · top-3 cover 67.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.7e-44.3e-42.8e-41.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.77e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.77e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.94e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.94e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.72e-4 · 18.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.72e-4 · 18.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.64e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.64e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.02e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.65e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.65e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.13e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.13e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.67e-4 · 38.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.67e-4 · 38.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.71e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.71e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.67e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.67e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.44e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.44e-7 · 0.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=6.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 38.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.480e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5254346 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -4.21× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.07%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.07%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-4.21×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -5.50400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.002
annualized -5.50
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -6.78σ ann 161% · Sortino -8.67 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-921%-643%-364%-85%193%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)161.2%Ann. vol σ-678.5%Sharpe (ann)-867.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.004% · long-run σ = 2.236%
435.088447.345459.601471.858484.114496.371t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 13:48:45 UTC
Snapshot age
4.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 13:48:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0cd9c185d71cc16d4a28dd93b547fb72d743e77b0bc3ee555edd687802b4e7db · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$176.56K
bid $173.12K · ask $3.44K
Depth within 5bp
$218.26K
bid $200.28K · ask $17.98K
Depth within 10bp
$330.67K
bid $235.35K · ask $95.32K
Depth within 50bp
$330.67K
bid $235.35K · ask $95.32K
Mid price
466.575000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.424
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.917
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ZEC/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K466.580.11bp466.581FILLED
BUY$10.00K466.712.87bp466.796FILLED
BUY$100.00K466.906.92bp467.0120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K466.570.11bp466.571FILLED
SELL$10.00K466.570.11bp466.571FILLED
SELL$100.00K466.560.36bp466.552FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ZEC/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$476.00–$477.001$20.40K
$473.00–$474.001$5.14K
$472.00–$473.002$12.30K
$471.00–$472.004$18.64K
$470.00–$471.001$7.71K
$469.00–$470.001$5.78K
$468.00–$469.003$11.28K
$466.00–$467.003$20.75K
$457.00–$458.001$7.10K
$454.00–$455.002$21.04K
$453.00–$454.00★3$63.78K
$451.00–$452.002$12.80K
$446.00–$447.001$14.64K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ZEC/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.082 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$103.06K
real volume
Sell weight
$87.39K
real volume
Net delta
$15.67K
buyers net
Imbalance
8.23%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
8.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ZEC/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.09% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 00:00:00Z3.0h476.80→466.832.091%4
#22026-06-19 16:00:00Z0ms454.21→446.861.618%1
#32026-06-20 13:00:00Z0ms473.36→466.561.437%1

/api/asset/hl-ZEC/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
161.20%
σ per bar = 0.000703
Mean return (annualised)
-1093.67%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.78
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.01%
peak 476.93 → trough 453.03 over 1583 bars

/api/asset/hl-ZEC/risk · same metrics, JSON