HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

VVV

VVV-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-vvv · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.28%
realized vol (ann.)
99.91%
max drawdown
2.72%
sharpe
-16.62
ulcer index
0.88%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.67%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1882.46
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.26%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-735.81
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.28%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.28%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-VVV/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH880ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$15.786
24h Δ · live
-4.28%
24h vol · live
$18.5M
VVV · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=16.3574 · σ=0.2969 · range [15.7870, 16.7300] · R²=0.631▼ FALLING -5.44%σ NORMAL 1.81%LAST 15.787016.730016.494316.258516.022815.7870μ = 16.3574max 16.7300min 15.7870dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $15.79
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,185,893 · μ=47435.7 · σ=69721.1 · CV=1.47BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=3072,476144,952217,428289,904μ = 47436289,903.8350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 289904 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
880ms
$mark $
$15.786
$mid $
$15.786
◉prev-day close
$16.492
Δ24h Δ %
-4.281%
$24h vol $
$18.48M
◐open interest $
$26.33M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=16.3574 · σ=0.2969 · range [15.7870, 16.7300] · R²=0.631▼ FALLING -5.44%σ NORMAL 1.81%LAST 15.787016.730016.494316.258516.022815.7870μ = 16.3574max 16.7300min 15.7870dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $15.7860 · 24h -4.28% · range $[15.7870, 16.7300]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 8 · down 17 (32% up) · range [15.7470, 17.3410] · σ=0.2969 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=33%STRONG BEARISH -6.38%CLOSE 15.7870 vs OPEN 16.8630 (-6.38%)&#9660; CLOSE 15.787017.341016.942516.544016.145515.7470μ close = 16.3574O16.863 H16.880 L16.324 C16.696 (-0.99%)O16.863 H16.880 L16.324 C16.696 (-0.99%)O16.688 H17.341 L16.511 C16.556 (-0.79%)O16.688 H17.341 L16.511 C16.556 (-0.79%)O16.581 H16.745 L15.943 C16.563 (-0.11%)O16.581 H16.745 L15.943 C16.563 (-0.11%)O16.563 H16.977 L16.363 C16.482 (-0.49%)O16.563 H16.977 L16.363 C16.482 (-0.49%)O16.474 H16.773 L16.326 C16.459 (-0.09%)O16.474 H16.773 L16.326 C16.459 (-0.09%)O16.486 H16.591 L16.322 C16.461 (-0.15%)O16.486 H16.591 L16.322 C16.461 (-0.15%)O16.461 H16.474 L16.293 C16.472 (+0.07%)O16.461 H16.474 L16.293 C16.472 (+0.07%)O16.473 H16.848 L16.203 C16.686 (+1.29%)O16.473 H16.848 L16.203 C16.686 (+1.29%)O16.678 H16.847 L16.648 C16.676 (-0.01%)O16.678 H16.847 L16.648 C16.676 (-0.01%)O16.666 H16.719 L16.454 C16.589 (-0.46%)O16.666 H16.719 L16.454 C16.589 (-0.46%)O16.603 H16.744 L16.472 C16.730 (+0.76%)O16.603 H16.744 L16.472 C16.730 (+0.76%)O16.713 H16.848 L16.604 C16.616 (-0.58%)O16.713 H16.848 L16.604 C16.616 (-0.58%)O16.603 H16.904 L16.589 C16.663 (+0.36%)O16.603 H16.904 L16.589 C16.663 (+0.36%)O16.657 H16.693 L16.404 C16.571 (-0.52%)O16.657 H16.693 L16.404 C16.571 (-0.52%)O16.588 H16.653 L16.115 C16.206 (-2.30%)O16.588 H16.653 L16.115 C16.206 (-2.30%)O16.191 H16.220 L15.811 C15.941 (-1.54%)O16.191 H16.220 L15.811 C15.941 (-1.54%)O15.945 H16.326 L15.945 C16.163 (+1.37%)O15.945 H16.326 L15.945 C16.163 (+1.37%)O16.159 H16.278 L16.106 C16.206 (+0.29%)O16.159 H16.278 L16.106 C16.206 (+0.29%)O16.185 H16.300 L16.075 C16.140 (-0.28%)O16.185 H16.300 L16.075 C16.140 (-0.28%)O16.138 H16.476 L16.089 C16.409 (+1.68%)O16.138 H16.476 L16.089 C16.409 (+1.68%)-2.8%O16.411 H16.502 L15.934 C15.946 (-2.83%)O16.411 H16.502 L15.934 C15.946 (-2.83%)O15.963 H16.045 L15.801 C15.960 (-0.02%)O15.963 H16.045 L15.801 C15.960 (-0.02%)O15.958 H16.051 L15.800 C15.892 (-0.41%)O15.958 H16.051 L15.800 C15.892 (-0.41%)O15.901 H16.201 L15.874 C16.066 (+1.04%)O15.901 H16.201 L15.874 C16.066 (+1.04%)O16.067 H16.071 L15.747 C15.787 (-1.74%)O16.067 H16.071 L15.747 C15.787 (-1.74%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,185,893 · μ=47435.7 · σ=69721.1 · CV=1.47BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=3072,476144,952217,428289,904μ = 47436108,395.57 · 37.4% peak108,395.57 · 37.4% peak214,200.39 · 73.9% peak214,200.39 · 73.9% peak289,903.83289,903.83 · 100.0% peak289,903.83 · 100.0% peak133,140.96 · 45.9% peak133,140.96 · 45.9% peak52,461.61 · 18.1% peak52,461.61 · 18.1% peak42,808.33 · 14.8% peak42,808.33 · 14.8% peak15,314.98 · 5.3% peak15,314.98 · 5.3% peak31,444.81 · 10.8% peak31,444.81 · 10.8% peak17,666.88 · 6.1% peak17,666.88 · 6.1% peak19,563.14 · 6.7% peak19,563.14 · 6.7% peak21,767.64 · 7.5% peak21,767.64 · 7.5% peak10,163.26 · 3.5% peak10,163.26 · 3.5% peak11,509.71 · 4.0% peak11,509.71 · 4.0% peak10,511.65 · 3.6% peak10,511.65 · 3.6% peak20,719.57 · 7.1% peak20,719.57 · 7.1% peak62,085.8 · 21.4% peak62,085.8 · 21.4% peak23,930.32 · 8.3% peak23,930.32 · 8.3% peak11,189.37 · 3.9% peak11,189.37 · 3.9% peak9,248.11 · 3.2% peak9,248.11 · 3.2% peak16,133.22 · 5.6% peak16,133.22 · 5.6% peak7,545.78 · 2.6% peak7,545.78 · 2.6% peak11,194.13 · 3.9% peak11,194.13 · 3.9% peak16,898.85 · 5.8% peak16,898.85 · 5.8% peak15,324.69 · 5.3% peak15,324.69 · 5.3% peak12,770.19 · 4.4% peak12,770.19 · 4.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1185893 · peak 289904 · CV 1.47

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0023 · σ=0.0108 · skew=-0.43 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.06 (mesokurtic)65320 1-267.41bpbin -267.41bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -267.41bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-229.78bpbin -229.78bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -229.78bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-192.15bpbin -192.15bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -192.15bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-154.53bpbin -154.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -154.53bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-116.90bp 2-79.28bpbin -79.28bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -79.28bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 5-41.65bpbin -41.65bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin -41.65bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 6-4.02bpbin -4.02bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -4.02bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 233.60bpbin 33.60bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 33.60bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 171.23bpbin 71.23bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 71.23bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1108.85bpbin 108.85bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 108.85bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3146.48bpbin 146.48bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 146.48bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.47 · kurt=0.06 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$15.786
Mid price
$15.786
24h change
-4.28%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$16.492

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.33)
μ MEAN16.3574$95% CI: [16.2411$, 16.4738$]
σ STD DEV0.2969$σ² = 0.088 · CV = 1.81%
med MEDIAN16.4610$Q₁ 16.1400$ · Q₃ 16.5890$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.9430$ · IQR 0.4490$ (1.349σ→0.4005$)
min 15.7870$Q₁ 16.1400$med 16.4610$Q₃ 16.5890$max 16.7300$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.446approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.326platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.35
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.18
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-19.65
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.233260%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.210
σᵣ STD / h1.110835%σ²ᵣ = 1.234×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.76×
σ ANNUALISED103.97%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.111%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-19.65negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-17.05downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.50approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.37mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.87
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2043.36%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.16%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.156%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.716%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.545%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.64%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.156%VaR₉₉−2.716%ES₉₅−2.545%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK1673.00$
−5.64% drawdown over 14h
1578.70$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.18× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +5.97% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
35.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.081 · within band
Bollinger upper
$16.9324
Bollinger MA
$16.3090
Bollinger lower
$15.6856

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.256within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.014lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.031strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.273significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.031
H = 1.031STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.256k=2-0.014k=3-0.093k=4-0.050k=5-0.1080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.27)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.27)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$18.48M
Open interest (USD)
$26.33M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.70x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.65% · worst -2.86% · typical |Δ| 0.82%MILD BEARISH -5.60%BEST+1.65%09hWORST-2.86%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.82%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-5.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.34%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.43% · Σ -3.46%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -5.60%+0.20%-5.60%-0.84% · 15h-0.84% · 15h-0.84%15h0.04% · 16h0.04% · 16h0.04%16h-0.49% · 17h-0.49% · 17h-0.49%17h-0.14% · 18h-0.14% · 18h-0.14%18h0.01% · 19h0.01% · 19h0.01%19h0.07% · 20h0.07% · 20h0.07%20h1.29% · 21h1.29% · 21h1.29%21h-0.06% · 22h-0.06% · 22h-0.06%22h-0.52% · 23h-0.52% · 23h-0.52%23h0.85% · 00h0.85% · 00h0.85%00h-0.68% · 01h-0.68% · 01h-0.68%01h0.28% · 02h0.28% · 02h0.28%02h-0.55% · 03h-0.55% · 03h-0.55%03h-2.23% · 04h-2.23% · 04h-2.23%04h-1.65% · 05h-1.65% · 05h-1.65%05h1.38% · 06h1.38% · 06h1.38%06h0.27% · 07h0.27% · 07h0.27%07h-0.41% · 08h-0.41% · 08h-0.41%08h1.65% · 09h1.65% · 09h1.65%09h★ BEST-2.86% · 10h-2.86% · 10h-2.86%10h▼ WORST0.09% · 11h0.09% · 11h0.09%11h-0.43% · 12h-0.43% · 12h-0.43%12h1.09% · 13h1.09% · 13h1.09%13h-1.75% · 14h-1.75% · 14h-1.75%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.65% · worst -2.86% · typical |Δ| 0.818%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.59%FINAL-5.59%MAX DD-5.76%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.19%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9441 · peak 1.0019 · range [0.9441, 1.0019]1.00190.9441break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0019UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.76% · significant0%-5.76%▼ TROUGH -5.76%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -5.76%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.42%bar 2-10 · 9 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.76%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9441 (-5.59%) · max DD -5.76% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-11.39 · σ=28.27MIXED EDGELAST -20.22 (-0.31σ vs μ)57.5128.750.00-28.75-57.51μ = -11.39-57.51-57.5120.1620.1617.4017.4016.3816.3838.2338.2318.9218.9223.2723.27-18.14-18.14-42.75-42.75-54.09-54.09-41.34-41.34-29.04-29.04-38.29-38.29-9.73-9.73-14.40-14.401.151.15-17.88-17.88-8.61-8.61-20.22-20.22v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -20.219 · range [-57.51, 38.23] · μ -11.393 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=102.6343 · σ=42.4837 · range [34.2926, 164.0263] · R²=0.908▲ RISING +365.65%σ EXTREME 41.39%LAST 159.6831164.0263131.592999.159466.726034.2926μ = 102.6343max 164.0263min 34.2926dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.91μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 159.68% · range [34.29%, 164.03%] · μ 102.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.221 · σ=0.297MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.571 (-1.18σ vs μ)0.7700.3850.000-0.385-0.770μ = -0.221-0.252-0.2520.1030.103-0.041-0.041-0.060-0.060-0.309-0.309-0.418-0.418-0.408-0.408-0.770-0.770-0.077-0.0770.2150.215-0.052-0.0520.1550.1550.1680.1680.0710.071-0.438-0.438-0.411-0.411-0.581-0.581-0.519-0.519-0.571-0.571v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.571 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1334
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5674
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.4957
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7793
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1047
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7131
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.7169
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0860
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7262
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0112
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0813
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2796
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.671 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.22e-4 · top T=3.00h (16.4%) · top-3 cover 42.7%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)2.4e-41.8e-41.2e-46.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 3.01e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.01e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.25e-4 · 8.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.25e-4 · 8.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.15e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.15e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.63e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.63e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.49e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.49e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.63e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.63e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.33e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.33e-4 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.42e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.42e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.46e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.46e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.42e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.42e-4 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.22e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.22e-4 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 6.8% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 16.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.469e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-29.84×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -26.68400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -26.68
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -29.96σ ann 100% · Sortino -27.80 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3596%-2852%-2109%-1366%-623%120%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)100.4%Ann. vol σ-2996.4%Sharpe (ann)-2780.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
15.12915.53815.94616.35416.76317.171t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:31:24 UTC
Snapshot age
880ms
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:31:25 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c6f4b894eb28afa9f8bfbe754124ddeb55bb2223245d6e6a725d68d135b94a7f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,106HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.3HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.13

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.44K
bid $2.69K · ask $1.74K
Depth within 10bp
$8.76K
bid $3.84K · ask $4.92K
Depth within 50bp
$45.25K
bid $25.34K · ask $19.91K
Mid price
15.784000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.122
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.143
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-VVV/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K15.78691.87bp15.78702FILLED
BUY$10.00K15.801110.82bp15.811015FILLED
BUY$100.00K15.809015.84bp15.818020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K15.78141.64bp15.78102FILLED
SELL$10.00K15.77098.32bp15.76409FILLED
SELL$100.00K15.761914.03bp15.749020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-VVV/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$16.0000–$17.0000★20$1.08M
$15.0000–$16.00005$110.49K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-VVV/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.090 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$490.52K
real volume
Sell weight
$586.98K
real volume
Net delta
$96.46K
sellers net
Imbalance
-8.95%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
9.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-VVV/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 4.72% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 03:00:00Z3.0h16.7300→15.94104.716%4
#22026-06-14 10:00:00Z2.0h16.4090→15.89203.151%3
#32026-06-14 14:00:00Z0ms16.0660→15.78701.737%1

/api/asset/hl-VVV/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
100.40%
σ per bar = 0.000438
Mean return (annualised)
-3008.48%
μ per bar = -0.000006
Sharpe (rf=0)
-29.96
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.55%
peak 16.50 → trough 15.75 over 2502 bars

/api/asset/hl-VVV/risk · same metrics, JSON