HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

VIRTUAL

VIRTUAL-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-virtual · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -5.78%
realized vol (ann.)
59.57%
max drawdown
3.20%
sharpe
-133.35
ulcer index
1.93%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.65%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4116.13
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.98%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.83
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2668.24
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.83
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-5.78%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
1.44%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -5.78%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 5.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-VIRTUAL/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.609
24h Δ · live
-5.78%
24h vol · live
$1.0M
VIRTUAL · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.6360 · σ=0.0111 · range [0.6093, 0.6518] · R²=0.796▼ FALLING -6.05%σ NORMAL 1.75%LAST 0.60930.65180.64120.63050.61990.6093μ = 0.6360max 0.6518min 0.6093dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.61
Funding direction · live
Long fee 38.3%Short fee 61.7%SHORT FEE61.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.960 / 1.00 bits (96%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
38.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
61.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000164% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,787,274 · μ=71491.0 · σ=56460.7 · CV=0.79STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13052,092104,184156,276208,368μ = 71491208,368.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 208368 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
$mark $
$0.6093
$mid $
$0.6093
◉prev-day close
$0.6467
Δ24h Δ %
-5.779%
$24h vol $
$1.03M
◐open interest $
$5.65M
%funding (1h)
0.000164%
%funding (yr)
+1.44%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.6360 · σ=0.0111 · range [0.6093, 0.6518] · R²=0.796▼ FALLING -6.05%σ NORMAL 1.75%LAST 0.60930.65180.64120.63050.61990.6093μ = 0.6360max 0.6518min 0.6093dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.6093 · 24h -5.78% · range $[0.6093, 0.6518]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 10 · down 15 (40% up) · range [0.6093, 0.6563] · σ=0.0111 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=46%BEARISH -4.94%CLOSE 0.6093 vs OPEN 0.6410 (-4.94%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.60930.65630.64460.63280.62110.6093μ close = 0.6360O0.641 H0.650 L0.641 C0.649 (+1.18%)O0.641 H0.650 L0.641 C0.649 (+1.18%)O0.649 H0.656 L0.646 C0.652 (+0.48%)O0.649 H0.656 L0.646 C0.652 (+0.48%)O0.652 H0.653 L0.638 C0.645 (-1.00%)O0.652 H0.653 L0.638 C0.645 (-1.00%)O0.645 H0.647 L0.639 C0.642 (-0.50%)O0.645 H0.647 L0.639 C0.642 (-0.50%)O0.641 H0.644 L0.639 C0.642 (+0.05%)O0.641 H0.644 L0.639 C0.642 (+0.05%)O0.642 H0.645 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.12%)O0.642 H0.645 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.12%)O0.641 H0.642 L0.640 C0.642 (+0.15%)O0.641 H0.642 L0.640 C0.642 (+0.15%)O0.642 H0.649 L0.639 C0.647 (+0.76%)O0.642 H0.649 L0.639 C0.647 (+0.76%)O0.647 H0.647 L0.643 C0.643 (-0.49%)O0.647 H0.647 L0.643 C0.643 (-0.49%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.642 C0.642 (-0.19%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.642 C0.642 (-0.19%)O0.643 H0.645 L0.641 C0.643 (-0.05%)O0.643 H0.645 L0.641 C0.643 (-0.05%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.10%)O0.643 H0.647 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.10%)O0.643 H0.646 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.28%)O0.643 H0.646 L0.640 C0.641 (-0.28%)O0.641 H0.646 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.47%)O0.641 H0.646 L0.641 C0.644 (+0.47%)-1.5%O0.644 H0.644 L0.633 C0.634 (-1.52%)O0.644 H0.644 L0.633 C0.634 (-1.52%)O0.634 H0.635 L0.629 C0.634 (+0.06%)O0.634 H0.635 L0.629 C0.634 (+0.06%)O0.634 H0.637 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.33%)O0.634 H0.637 L0.631 C0.632 (-0.33%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.627 C0.628 (-0.56%)O0.632 H0.633 L0.627 C0.628 (-0.56%)O0.628 H0.633 L0.626 C0.630 (+0.23%)O0.628 H0.633 L0.626 C0.630 (+0.23%)O0.630 H0.634 L0.624 C0.632 (+0.39%)O0.630 H0.634 L0.624 C0.632 (+0.39%)O0.632 H0.634 L0.629 C0.629 (-0.47%)O0.632 H0.634 L0.629 C0.629 (-0.47%)O0.629 H0.629 L0.626 C0.626 (-0.53%)O0.629 H0.629 L0.626 C0.626 (-0.53%)O0.625 H0.626 L0.615 C0.617 (-1.37%)O0.625 H0.626 L0.615 C0.617 (-1.37%)O0.617 H0.618 L0.611 C0.612 (-0.74%)O0.617 H0.618 L0.611 C0.612 (-0.74%)O0.612 H0.613 L0.609 C0.609 (-0.48%)O0.612 H0.613 L0.609 C0.609 (-0.48%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,787,274 · μ=71491.0 · σ=56460.7 · CV=0.79STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13052,092104,184156,276208,368μ = 71491208,368.1208,368.1 · 100.0% peak208,368.1 · 100.0% peak78,489.2 · 37.7% peak78,489.2 · 37.7% peak202,360.5 · 97.1% peak202,360.5 · 97.1% peak85,447 · 41.0% peak85,447 · 41.0% peak76,334.7 · 36.6% peak76,334.7 · 36.6% peak40,239.6 · 19.3% peak40,239.6 · 19.3% peak46,688.8 · 22.4% peak46,688.8 · 22.4% peak41,252.4 · 19.8% peak41,252.4 · 19.8% peak16,662.2 · 8.0% peak16,662.2 · 8.0% peak20,756.7 · 10.0% peak20,756.7 · 10.0% peak35,933.1 · 17.2% peak35,933.1 · 17.2% peak26,899.2 · 12.9% peak26,899.2 · 12.9% peak26,794.1 · 12.9% peak26,794.1 · 12.9% peak49,951.9 · 24.0% peak49,951.9 · 24.0% peak64,134.8 · 30.8% peak64,134.8 · 30.8% peak99,195.7 · 47.6% peak99,195.7 · 47.6% peak28,601.3 · 13.7% peak28,601.3 · 13.7% peak34,337.1 · 16.5% peak34,337.1 · 16.5% peak28,121.3 · 13.5% peak28,121.3 · 13.5% peak103,730.4 · 49.8% peak103,730.4 · 49.8% peak50,553.1 · 24.3% peak50,553.1 · 24.3% peak12,462.1 · 6.0% peak12,462.1 · 6.0% peak177,829.2 · 85.3% peak177,829.2 · 85.3% peak130,400.6 · 62.6% peak130,400.6 · 62.6% peak101,730.8 · 48.8% peak101,730.8 · 48.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1787274 · peak 208368 · CV 0.79

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0027 · σ=0.0055 · skew=-0.54 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.11 (mesokurtic)65320 2-146.90bpbin -146.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -146.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak-127.81bp 1-108.72bpbin -108.72bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -108.72bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-89.63bp 1-70.54bpbin -70.54bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -70.54bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-51.45bpbin -51.45bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -51.45bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 2-32.36bpbin -32.36bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -32.36bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3-13.27bpbin -13.27bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -13.27bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 45.82bpbin 5.82bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 5.82bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 124.92bpbin 24.92bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 24.92bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 344.01bpbin 44.01bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 44.01bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 163.10bpbin 63.10bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 63.10bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.51 · kurt=-0.04 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.6093
Mid price
$0.6093
24h change
-5.78%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.6467

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.90)
μ MEAN0.6360$95% CI: [0.6316$, 0.6403$]
σ STD DEV0.0111$σ² = 1.233×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.75%
med MEDIAN0.6414$Q₁ 0.6299$ · Q₃ 0.6434$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0424$ · IQR 0.0136$ (1.349σ→0.0150$)
min 0.6093$Q₁ 0.6299$med 0.6414$Q₃ 0.6434$max 0.6518$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.896left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.111mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.49
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.10
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.82
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-42.79
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.260166%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.457
σᵣ STD / h0.569123%σ²ᵣ = 0.324×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.19×
σ ANNUALISED53.27%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.569%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-42.79negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-34.67downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.55left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.25mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.81
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2279.05%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.36%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.355%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.530%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.491%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.51%23h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.355%VaR₉₉−1.530%ES₉₅−1.491%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 23h duration
PEAK65.18$
−6.51% drawdown over 23h
60.93$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.13× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.96% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
19.4 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.052 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.6554
Bollinger MA
$0.6335
Bollinger lower
$0.6116

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.019within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.060lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.882strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.475significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.882
H = 0.882STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.019k=2+0.060k=3-0.025k=4-0.232k=5-0.1290+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.47)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.03M
Open interest (USD)
$5.65M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.18x
1h funding
0.000164%
Funding (annualised)
+1.44%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.73% · worst -1.56% · typical |Δ| 0.48%BEARISH SESSION -6.24%BEST+0.73%21hWORST-1.56%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.24%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 5down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.27% · Σ -2.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.32% · Σ -2.57%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.47%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.24%+0.49%-6.24%0.49% · 15h0.49% · 15h0.49%15h-1.01% · 16h-1.01% · 16h-1.01%16h-0.54% · 17h-0.54% · 17h-0.54%17h-0.00% · 18h-0.00% · 18h-0.00%18h-0.12% · 19h-0.12% · 19h-0.12%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h0.73% · 21h0.73% · 21h0.73%21h★ BEST-0.49% · 22h-0.49% · 22h-0.49%22h-0.19% · 23h-0.19% · 23h-0.19%23h0.08% · 00h0.08% · 00h0.08%00h0.13% · 01h0.13% · 01h0.13%01h-0.33% · 02h-0.33% · 02h-0.33%02h0.43% · 03h0.43% · 03h0.43%03h-1.56% · 04h-1.56% · 04h-1.56%04h▼ WORST-0.04% · 05h-0.04% · 05h-0.04%05h-0.38% · 06h-0.38% · 06h-0.38%06h-0.52% · 07h-0.52% · 07h-0.52%07h0.25% · 08h0.25% · 08h0.25%08h0.36% · 09h0.36% · 09h0.36%09h-0.47% · 10h-0.47% · 10h-0.47%10h-0.56% · 11h-0.56% · 11h-0.56%11h-1.42% · 12h-1.42% · 12h-1.42%12h-0.74% · 13h-0.74% · 13h-0.74%13h-0.48% · 14h-0.48% · 14h-0.48%14hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-1.47%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.73% · worst -1.56% · typical |Δ| 0.477%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.10%FINAL-6.10%MAX DD-6.55%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.49%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 5EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9390 · peak 1.0049 · range [0.9390, 1.0049]1.00490.9390break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0049UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.55% · significant0%-6.55%▼ TROUGH -6.55%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -6.55%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.55%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9390 (-6.10%) · max DD -6.55% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-30.92 · σ=26.62UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -90.82 (-2.25σ vs μ)90.8245.410.00-45.41-90.82μ = -30.92-30.50-30.50-20.88-20.88-9.34-9.342.972.975.985.9815.6315.63-2.64-2.64-17.09-17.09-32.14-32.14-28.74-28.74-39.62-39.62-56.70-56.70-39.79-39.79-42.29-42.29-33.10-33.10-50.16-50.16-57.18-57.18-61.12-61.12-90.82-90.82v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -90.817 · range [-90.82, 15.63] · μ -30.923 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=51.3394 · σ=12.6080 · range [31.6376, 66.8986] · R²=0.114▲ RISING +7.25%σ EXTREME 24.56%LAST 53.221066.898658.083449.268140.452831.6376μ = 51.3394max 66.8986min 31.6376dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.11μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 53.22% · range [31.64%, 66.90%] · μ 51.34% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.154 · σ=0.299MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.142 (+0.99σ vs μ)0.6030.3010.000-0.301-0.603μ = -0.154-0.197-0.1970.3130.313-0.214-0.214-0.213-0.213-0.232-0.232-0.213-0.213-0.341-0.341-0.213-0.213-0.345-0.345-0.449-0.449-0.545-0.545-0.603-0.603-0.539-0.539-0.032-0.032-0.072-0.0720.1420.1420.2560.2560.4350.4350.1420.142v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.142 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.2591
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5328
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.3590
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7995
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.7898
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7872
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4312
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8176
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0065
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1903
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8491
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.058 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.55e-5 · top T=2.00h (25.3%) · top-3 cover 60.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-48.1e-55.4e-52.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.83e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.83e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.95e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.95e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.08e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.07e-5 · 16.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.07e-5 · 16.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.05e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.05e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.24e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.24e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.10e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.10e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.08e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.08e-5 · 18.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.03e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.03e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.52e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.52e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.15e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.15e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 25.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.08e-4 · 25.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 25.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.264e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.03%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.03%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-131.66×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -80.17400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.035
annualized -80.17
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -78.56σ ann 60% · Sortino -62.32 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-9428%-7528%-5628%-3728%-1828%72%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)59.7%Ann. vol σ-7856.4%Sharpe (ann)-6232.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.5850.6000.6160.6320.6470.663t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 14:31:13 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 14:31:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4672d140c5b2d428eb8679691001c0b72af99cda6791b1a0e2541f389690ff93 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$11.78K
bid $7.33K · ask $4.45K
Depth within 10bp
$31.31K
bid $16.81K · ask $14.51K
Depth within 50bp
$53.73K
bid $29.81K · ask $23.92K
Mid price
0.609290
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.110
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.265
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-VIRTUAL/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.6093911.66bp0.6094602FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6095824.79bp0.6096909FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6097637.76bp0.60999020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.6092011.47bp0.6092002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.6090563.84bp0.6088608FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.6087958.13bp0.60851020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.641e-6
0.00016% / hr
Annualised APR
1.439%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
253.9d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
253.9d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-1.439%253.9d6.96y
SHORTRECEIVE1.439%253.9d6.96y

/api/asset/hl-VIRTUAL/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.79M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-VIRTUAL/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.479 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$411.07K
real volume
Sell weight
$1.17M
real volume
Net delta
$756.77K
sellers net
Imbalance
-47.93%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-VIRTUAL/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.60% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 11:00:00Z3.0h0.632090→0.6093403.599%4
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.644200→0.6282702.473%5
#32026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.651760→0.6409601.657%4

/api/asset/hl-VIRTUAL/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
59.67%
σ per bar = 0.000260
Mean return (annualised)
-4688.11%
μ per bar = -0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
-78.56
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.44%
peak 0.64 → trough 0.61 over 4984 bars

/api/asset/hl-VIRTUAL/risk · same metrics, JSON