HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

RSR

RSR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-rsr · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.70%
realized vol (ann.)
55.77%
max drawdown
0.92%
sharpe
-0.00
ulcer index
0.43%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.39%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-0.00
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-0.00
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1249
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.70%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-0.10%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 41%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 23.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-RSR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.001
24h Δ · live
0.70%
24h vol · live
$0.0M
RSR · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0013 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0013, 0.0013] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +0.62%σ LOW 0.54%LAST 0.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.0013μ = 0.0013max 0.0013min 0.0013dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 9.2%Short fee 90.8%SHORT FEE90.8%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.443 / 1.00 bits (44%) · informative — one side favoured
Long fee
9.2%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
90.8%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.000011% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=13,128,404 · μ=547016.8 · σ=1862120.0 · CV=3.40BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1402,243,9894,487,9786,731,9678,975,956μ = 5470178,975,95650%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 8975956 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.0s
$mark $
$0.0013
$mid $
$0.0013
◉prev-day close
$0.0013
Δ24h Δ %
+0.698%
$24h vol $
$16.97k
◐open interest $
$111.16k
%funding (1h)
-0.000011%
%funding (yr)
-0.10%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.0013 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0013, 0.0013] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +0.62%σ LOW 0.54%LAST 0.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.0013μ = 0.0013max 0.0013min 0.0013dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0013 · 24h 0.70% · range $[0.0013, 0.0013]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 20 · down 4 (83% up) · range [0.0013, 0.0013] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=37%BULLISH +0.62%CLOSE 0.0013 vs OPEN 0.0013 (+0.62%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.0013μ close = 0.0013O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)0.6%O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.62%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.62%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.31%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.31%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.08%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.08%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.54%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.54%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.00%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.46%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (-0.46%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.15%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.23%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.001 C0.001 (+0.23%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=13,128,404 · μ=547016.8 · σ=1862120.0 · CV=3.40BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1402,243,9894,487,9786,731,9678,975,956μ = 547017151,353 · 1.7% peak151,353 · 1.7% peak18,648 · 0.2% peak18,648 · 0.2% peak57,307 · 0.6% peak57,307 · 0.6% peak94,808 · 1.1% peak94,808 · 1.1% peak48,008 · 0.5% peak48,008 · 0.5% peak286,290 · 3.2% peak286,290 · 3.2% peak32,533 · 0.4% peak32,533 · 0.4% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak76,955 · 0.9% peak76,955 · 0.9% peak60,722 · 0.7% peak60,722 · 0.7% peak27,938 · 0.3% peak27,938 · 0.3% peak8,975,9568,975,956 · 100.0% peak8,975,956 · 100.0% peak324,336 · 3.6% peak324,336 · 3.6% peak2,462,567 · 27.4% peak2,462,567 · 27.4% peak12,274 · 0.1% peak12,274 · 0.1% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak0 · 0.0% peak31,147 · 0.3% peak31,147 · 0.3% peak105,072 · 1.2% peak105,072 · 1.2% peak174,645 · 1.9% peak174,645 · 1.9% peak143,845 · 1.6% peak143,845 · 1.6% peak44,000 · 0.5% peak44,000 · 0.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 13128404 · peak 8975956 · CV 3.40

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0056 · skew=1.20 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.88 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 2-95.32bpbin -95.32bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -95.32bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-70.25bp 2-45.18bpbin -45.18bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -45.18bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 6-20.11bpbin -20.11bp · n=6 · 85.7% peakbin -20.11bp · n=6 · 85.7% peak 74.96bpbin 4.96bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 4.96bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 430.03bpbin 30.03bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 30.03bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak55.10bp80.17bp 1105.24bpbin 105.24bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 105.24bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak130.31bp155.38bp 1180.45bpbin 180.45bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 180.45bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 7 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=1.28 · kurt=3.35 · near 14 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0013
Mid price
$0.0013
24h change
+0.70%
Mark–mid spread
7.70 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0013

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.09)
μ MEAN0.0013$95% CI: [0.0013$, 0.0013$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.54%
med MEDIAN0.0013$Q₁ 0.0013$ · Q₃ 0.0013$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0013$Q₁ 0.0013$med 0.0013$Q₃ 0.0013$max 0.0013$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.042approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.093platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.58
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=4.26
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.026901%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.046
σᵣ STD / h0.590875%σ²ᵣ = 0.349×10⁻⁴ · CV = 21.96×
σ ANNUALISED55.30%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.591%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)4.26excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)5.07strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.37right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.52leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 1.19
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+235.65%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.81%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.814%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.029%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.965%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.76%15h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.814%VaR₉₉−1.029%ES₉₅−0.965%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 15h duration
PEAK0.13$
−1.76% drawdown over 15h
0.13$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.19× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.79% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
53.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.463 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0013
Bollinger MA
$0.0013
Bollinger lower
$0.0013

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.238within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.210lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.894strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.037fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.894
H = 0.894STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.238k=2-0.210k=3+0.153k=4-0.090k=5-0.0380+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.04)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.04)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$16.97k
Open interest (USD)
$111.16k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.15x
1h funding
-0.000011%
Funding (annualised)
-0.10%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.705× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.853× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.926×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 1.93% · worst -1.08% · typical |Δ| 0.36%MILD BULLISH +0.62%BEST+1.93%13hWORST-1.08%19hTYPICAL |Δ|0.36%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.62%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.17% · Σ +1.16%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.77%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.62%+1.46%-0.47%0.39% · 10h0.39% · 10h0.39%10h-0.39% · 11h-0.39% · 11h-0.39%11h-0.47% · 12h-0.47% · 12h-0.47%12h1.93% · 13h1.93% · 13h1.93%13h★ BEST-0.15% · 14h-0.15% · 14h-0.15%14h-0.08% · 15h-0.08% · 15h-0.08%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-1.08% · 19h-1.08% · 19h-1.08%19h▼ WORST0.08% · 20h0.08% · 20h0.08%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.39% · 23h0.39% · 23h0.39%23h0.31% · 00h0.31% · 00h0.31%00h-0.23% · 01h-0.23% · 01h-0.23%01h0.00% · 02h0.00% · 02h·02h0.00% · 03h0.00% · 03h·03h-0.85% · 04h-0.85% · 04h-0.85%04h1.01% · 05h1.01% · 05h1.01%05h0.31% · 06h0.31% · 06h0.31%06h-0.31% · 07h-0.31% · 07h-0.31%07h-0.08% · 08h-0.08% · 08h-0.08%08hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.16%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH30% up · 43% down · 26% flat
7 up bars · 10 down · best 1.93% · worst -1.08% · typical |Δ| 0.356%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsPROFITABLE +0.58%FINAL+0.58%MAX DD-1.77%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.45%UNDERWATER21/24 (88%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0058 · peak 1.0145 · range [0.9953, 1.0145]1.01450.9953break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0145UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.77% · moderate0%-1.77%▼ TROUGH -1.77%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.77%bar 6-24 · 19 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.85%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.77%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 21/24 bars
final equity 1.0058 (0.58%) · max DD -1.77% · time-under-water 21/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=-1.92 · σ=34.68MIXED EDGELAST 2.08 (+0.12σ vs μ)62.8031.400.00-31.40-62.80μ = -1.9224.7724.7715.8915.8924.1224.1235.7235.72-62.80-62.80-45.53-45.53-38.08-38.08-44.98-44.98-44.98-44.98-26.02-26.0251.9251.9221.0221.0234.3934.3934.3934.39-33.40-33.40-2.15-2.1512.9212.924.164.162.082.08v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 2.076 · range [-62.80, 51.92] · μ -1.924 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=51.9803 · σ=25.8109 · range [6.4060, 93.3340] · R²=0.101▼ FALLING -29.78%σ EXTREME 49.66%LAST 65.078593.334071.602049.870028.13806.4060μ = 51.9803max 93.3340min 6.4060dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 65.08% · range [6.41%, 93.33%] · μ 51.98% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.185 · σ=0.251MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.328 (-0.57σ vs μ)0.4860.2430.000-0.243-0.486μ = -0.185-0.386-0.386-0.315-0.315-0.454-0.454-0.101-0.1010.3250.325-0.059-0.059-0.350-0.350-0.411-0.411-0.450-0.450-0.107-0.1070.3190.3190.0040.004-0.014-0.0140.1260.126-0.174-0.174-0.486-0.486-0.319-0.319-0.342-0.342-0.328-0.328v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.328 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
26.7866
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.6469
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6036
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.0887
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0280
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3963
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6919
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0063
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0150
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3101
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.788 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=3.49e-5 · top T=3.29h (28.9%) · top-3 cover 63.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-48.3e-55.5e-52.8e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 9.40e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 23.0 · power 9.40e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.89e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.89e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 7.7 · power 3.55e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 7.7 · power 3.55e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 5.8 · power 1.82e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 5.8 · power 1.82e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.6 · power 5.40e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 4.6 · power 5.40e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.8 · power 4.87e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.8 · power 4.87e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.11e-4 · 28.9% energyperiod 3.3 · power 1.11e-4 · 28.9% energyperiod 2.9 · power 3.14e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.9 · power 3.14e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.6 · power 2.21e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.6 · power 2.21e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.3 · power 8.24e-5 · 21.5% energyperiod 2.3 · power 8.24e-5 · 21.5% energyperiod 2.1 · power 8.71e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.1 · power 8.71e-7 · 0.2% energy50% by T=3.3h#1 dominantT=3.29h#2T=2.30h#3T=3.83hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.29h (freq 0.304) · concentrates 28.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.840e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5255221 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-27.26×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -31.76400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -31.76
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -32.91σ ann 121% · Sortino -12.80 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3950%-3131%-2312%-1493%-674%145%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)120.7%Ann. vol σ-3291.3%Sharpe (ann)-1279.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:01:55 UTC
Snapshot age
5.0s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:02:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9ba54755f56951e7ff33999855077de169900929012aa988e12e67dbd2bcd42c · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$3.81K
bid $1.71K · ask $2.10K
Depth within 50bp
$32.01K
bid $5.88K · ask $26.13K
Mid price
0.001299
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
15.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.274
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.561
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-RSR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0013007.70bp0.0013001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00130226.35bp0.0013044FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.001326204.55bp0.00170520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0012987.70bp0.0012981FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00128886.39bp0.0012637FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.001245412.71bp0.00071020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.127e-7
-0.00001% / hr
Annualised APR
-0.099%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
10.13y
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
10.13y
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE0.099%10.13y101.29y
SHORTPAY-0.099%10.13y101.29y

/api/asset/hl-RSR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$13.13M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-RSR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.508 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
7 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$3.19M
real volume
Sell weight
$9.78M
real volume
Net delta
$6.59M
sellers net
Imbalance
-50.77%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
50.8%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-RSR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 1.15% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 19:00:00Z2.0h0.001305→0.0012901.149%3
#22026-06-19 12:00:00Z0ms0.001294→0.0012830.850%1
#32026-06-20 04:00:00Z0ms0.001296→0.0012850.849%1

/api/asset/hl-RSR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
120.73%
σ per bar = 0.000527
Mean return (annualised)
-3973.47%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-32.91
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.26%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 3214 bars

/api/asset/hl-RSR/risk · same metrics, JSON