HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

PYTH

PYTH-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-pyth · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.73%
realized vol (ann.)
104.37%
max drawdown
2.53%
sharpe
-10.56
ulcer index
1.16%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.01%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-946.20
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.19%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.98
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-502.18
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.98
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.73%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 34%
  • 24h change +3.73%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 16.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-PYTH/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.036
24h Δ · live
3.73%
24h vol · live
$0.8M
PYTH · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0359 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0349, 0.0369] · R²=0.476▲ RISING +4.31%σ NORMAL 1.47%LAST 0.03640.03690.03640.03590.03540.0349μ = 0.0359max 0.0369min 0.0349dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.04
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=22,102,932 · μ=884117.3 · σ=1214545.7 · CV=1.37BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2001,599,4583,198,9164,798,3746,397,832μ = 8841176,397,83250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 6397832 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.1s
$mark $
$0.0364
$mid $
$0.0364
◉prev-day close
$0.0351
Δ24h Δ %
+3.730%
$24h vol $
$792.06k
◐open interest $
$752.11k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0359 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0349, 0.0369] · R²=0.476▲ RISING +4.31%σ NORMAL 1.47%LAST 0.03640.03690.03640.03590.03540.0349μ = 0.0359max 0.0369min 0.0349dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0364 · 24h 3.73% · range $[0.0349, 0.0369]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0347, 0.0373] · σ=0.0005 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BULLISH +4.17%CLOSE 0.0364 vs OPEN 0.0350 (+4.17%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.03640.03730.03660.03600.03540.0347μ close = 0.0359O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.13%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.13%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+1.35%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (+1.35%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.34%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+1.34%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.40%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.40%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.44%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.44%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.69%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.69%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.94%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.94%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.18%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.18%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (-0.51%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (-0.51%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.97%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.97%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.15%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (-1.15%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.49%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.49%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.58%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.58%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (-1.31%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (-1.31%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.34%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.34%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.52%)O0.035 H0.035 L0.035 C0.035 (-0.52%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.91%)O0.035 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.91%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.98%)O0.036 H0.036 L0.035 C0.036 (+0.98%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.53%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (+0.53%)2.2%O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+2.22%)O0.036 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+2.22%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (-0.78%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (-0.78%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.68%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.037 (+0.68%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.02%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (+0.02%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (-0.22%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.037 C0.037 (-0.22%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.70%)O0.037 H0.037 L0.036 C0.036 (-0.70%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=22,102,932 · μ=884117.3 · σ=1214545.7 · CV=1.37BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2001,599,4583,198,9164,798,3746,397,832μ = 884117446,530 · 7.0% peak446,530 · 7.0% peak599,724 · 9.4% peak599,724 · 9.4% peak994,735 · 15.5% peak994,735 · 15.5% peak342,922 · 5.4% peak342,922 · 5.4% peak403,737 · 6.3% peak403,737 · 6.3% peak829,918 · 13.0% peak829,918 · 13.0% peak321,933 · 5.0% peak321,933 · 5.0% peak164,102 · 2.6% peak164,102 · 2.6% peak196,188 · 3.1% peak196,188 · 3.1% peak321,498 · 5.0% peak321,498 · 5.0% peak168,608 · 2.6% peak168,608 · 2.6% peak313,402 · 4.9% peak313,402 · 4.9% peak303,118 · 4.7% peak303,118 · 4.7% peak982,268 · 15.4% peak982,268 · 15.4% peak415,102 · 6.5% peak415,102 · 6.5% peak960,536 · 15.0% peak960,536 · 15.0% peak957,137 · 15.0% peak957,137 · 15.0% peak1,082,448 · 16.9% peak1,082,448 · 16.9% peak923,850 · 14.4% peak923,850 · 14.4% peak1,575,100 · 24.6% peak1,575,100 · 24.6% peak594,902 · 9.3% peak594,902 · 9.3% peak1,397,937 · 21.9% peak1,397,937 · 21.9% peak373,049 · 5.8% peak373,049 · 5.8% peak6,397,8326,397,832 · 100.0% peak6,397,832 · 100.0% peak1,036,356 · 16.2% peak1,036,356 · 16.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 22102932 · peak 6397832 · CV 1.37

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0015 · σ=0.0084 · skew=0.26 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.68 (mesokurtic)54310 2-123.03bpbin -123.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -123.03bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-93.27bp 5-63.50bpbin -63.50bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -63.50bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-33.73bpbin -33.73bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -33.73bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 1-3.97bpbin -3.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -3.97bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 125.80bpbin 25.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 25.80bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 455.56bpbin 55.56bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 55.56bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 485.33bpbin 85.33bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin 85.33bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 1115.10bpbin 115.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 115.10bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 1144.86bpbin 144.86bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 144.86bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak174.63bp 1204.39bpbin 204.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 204.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 12
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.25 · kurt=-0.71 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0364
Mid price
$0.0364
24h change
+3.73%
Mark–mid spread
3.02 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0351

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0359$95% CI: [0.0357$, 0.0361$]
σ STD DEV0.0005$σ² = 0.003×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.47%
med MEDIAN0.0359$Q₁ 0.0356$ · Q₃ 0.0361$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0020$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0007$)
min 0.0349$Q₁ 0.0356$med 0.0359$Q₃ 0.0361$max 0.0369$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.384approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.774mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.37
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.73
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=18.17
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.175915%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.194
σᵣ STD / h0.906076%σ²ᵣ = 0.821×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.15×
σ ANNUALISED84.80%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.906%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)18.17excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)23.48strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.26approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.59mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.29
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1541.01%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.072%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.320%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.252%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.22%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.072%VaR₉₉−1.320%ES₉₅−1.252%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK3.60$
−2.22% drawdown over 3h
3.52$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.27% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
60.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.704 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0370
Bollinger MA
$0.0360
Bollinger lower
$0.0350

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.142within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.142lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.969strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.567significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.969
H = 0.969STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.142k=2+0.142k=3+0.022k=4-0.332k=5+0.0940+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.57)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.57)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$792.06k
Open interest (USD)
$752.11k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.05x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.19% · worst -1.38% · typical |Δ| 0.78%MILD BULLISH +4.22%BEST+2.19%06hWORST-1.38%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.78%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.22%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.21% · Σ +1.67%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.27% · Σ +2.19%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.36%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.22%+5.47%0.00%1.27% · 12h1.27% · 12h1.27%12h1.45% · 13h1.45% · 13h1.45%13h-0.42% · 14h-0.42% · 14h-0.42%14h0.35% · 15h0.35% · 15h0.35%15h-0.77% · 16h-0.77% · 16h-0.77%16h0.94% · 17h0.94% · 17h0.94%17h-0.31% · 18h-0.31% · 18h-0.31%18h-0.53% · 19h-0.53% · 19h-0.53%19h0.96% · 20h0.96% · 20h0.96%20h-1.12% · 21h-1.12% · 21h-1.12%21h0.58% · 22h0.58% · 22h0.58%22h0.61% · 23h0.61% · 23h0.61%23h-1.38% · 00h-1.38% · 00h-1.38%00h▼ WORST-0.27% · 01h-0.27% · 01h-0.27%01h-0.59% · 02h-0.59% · 02h-0.59%02h0.91% · 03h0.91% · 03h0.91%03h0.98% · 04h0.98% · 04h0.98%04h0.60% · 05h0.60% · 05h0.60%05h2.19% · 06h2.19% · 06h2.19%06h★ BEST-0.78% · 07h-0.78% · 07h-0.78%07h0.63% · 08h0.63% · 08h0.63%08h-0.13% · 09h-0.13% · 09h-0.13%09h-0.27% · 10h-0.27% · 10h-0.27%10h-0.70% · 11h-0.70% · 11h-0.70%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.19%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 50% down
12 up bars · 12 down · best 2.19% · worst -1.38% · typical |Δ| 0.781%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +4.21%FINAL+4.21%MAX DD-2.23%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.52%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0421 · peak 1.0552 · range [1.0000, 1.0552]1.05521.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0552UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.23% · moderate0%-2.23%▼ TROUGH -2.23%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.23%bar 14-18 · 5 bars · recovered#2 -1.24%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOING#3 -1.12%bar 11-12 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.23%)RECOVERYongoing · 12 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0421 (4.21%) · max DD -2.23% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=15.23 · σ=30.55PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 13.26 (-0.06σ vs μ)74.4237.210.00-37.21-74.42μ = 15.2348.4148.4122.5622.56-17.73-17.7313.4813.48-14.54-14.549.359.353.653.65-13.77-13.77-9.94-9.94-40.51-40.51-2.45-2.454.324.324.174.1759.9859.9847.0347.0374.4274.4253.9453.9433.7333.7313.2613.26v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 13.262 · range [-40.51, 74.42] · μ 15.230 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=86.3339 · σ=10.9241 · range [60.0974, 104.4502] · R²=0.559▲ RISING +22.31%σ HIGH 12.65%LAST 104.4502104.450293.362082.273871.185660.0974μ = 86.3339max 104.4502min 60.0974dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.56μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 104.45% · range [60.10%, 104.45%] · μ 86.33% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.334 · σ=0.273MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.319 (+0.05σ vs μ)0.6110.3060.000-0.306-0.611μ = -0.334-0.100-0.100-0.567-0.567-0.611-0.611-0.555-0.555-0.589-0.589-0.611-0.611-0.525-0.525-0.525-0.525-0.414-0.414-0.257-0.257-0.137-0.1370.0230.0230.3220.3220.1630.163-0.385-0.385-0.491-0.491-0.438-0.438-0.327-0.327-0.319-0.319v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.319 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.6243
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7319
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.8535
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4349
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0674
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2677
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6764
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5390
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0329
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6220
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5339
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.811 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.91e-5 · top T=2.40h (27.9%) · top-3 cover 58.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.6e-42.0e-41.3e-46.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 4.95e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.95e-5 · 5.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.70e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.70e-5 · 4.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.62e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.62e-4 · 17.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.20e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.20e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.65e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.65e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.77e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.77e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-4 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.65e-4 · 27.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.65e-4 · 27.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.06e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.06e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.71e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.71e-6 · 1.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 27.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.490e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-24.08×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -32.97400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.014
annualized -32.97
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -31.33σ ann 130% · Sortino -25.32 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3759%-2976%-2193%-1410%-627%156%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)130.1%Ann. vol σ-3132.8%Sharpe (ann)-2532.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0350.0360.0370.0380.0390.040t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:23:03 UTC
Snapshot age
2.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:23:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
32e4714350c57ed33332019f1ae840a3858af28c41b33b17b0a0c6269c9a25c5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$6.16K
bid $6.09K · ask $77
Depth within 10bp
$10.81K
bid $9.11K · ask $1.70K
Depth within 50bp
$59.16K
bid $29.70K · ask $29.46K
Mid price
0.036424
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.006
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.525
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PYTH/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0364517.35bp0.0364574FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03648917.84bp0.03651515FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03651625.28bp0.03656520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0364171.94bp0.0364143FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0364055.14bp0.03638111FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03634820.77bp0.03625420PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-PYTH/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$22.10M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-PYTH/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.151 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
12 / 12
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$9.19M
real volume
Sell weight
$12.46M
real volume
Net delta
$3.27M
sellers net
Imbalance
-15.09%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-PYTH/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.22% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 00:00:00Z2.0h0.035994→0.0351962.217%3
#22026-06-19 21:00:00Z1.0h0.035970→0.0355681.118%2
#32026-06-20 11:00:00Z0ms0.036830→0.0364291.089%1

/api/asset/hl-PYTH/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
130.09%
σ per bar = 0.000567
Mean return (annualised)
-4075.49%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-31.33
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.62%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 1209 bars

/api/asset/hl-PYTH/risk · same metrics, JSON