HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ORDI

ORDI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ordi · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 8.53%
realized vol (ann.)
92.16%
max drawdown
2.47%
sharpe
-15.74
ulcer index
1.42%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1021.03
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-621.95
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
8.53%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change +8.53%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ORDI/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$3.343
24h Δ · live
8.53%
24h vol · live
$1.1M
ORDI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=3.4111 · σ=0.1260 · range [3.0868, 3.6117] · R²=0.027▲ RISING +8.28%σ NORMAL 3.69%LAST 3.34243.61173.48053.34933.21803.0868μ = 3.4111max 3.6117min 3.0868dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $3.34
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=325,518 · μ=13020.7 · σ=14364.3 · CV=1.10BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=8017,49334,98652,47969,972μ = 1302169,971.6350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 69972 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.0s
$mark $
$3.3432
$mid $
$3.343
◉prev-day close
$3.0803
Δ24h Δ %
+8.535%
$24h vol $
$1.12M
◐open interest $
$385.83k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=3.4111 · σ=0.1260 · range [3.0868, 3.6117] · R²=0.027▲ RISING +8.28%σ NORMAL 3.69%LAST 3.34243.61173.48053.34933.21803.0868μ = 3.4111max 3.6117min 3.0868dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $3.3432 · 24h 8.53% · range $[3.0868, 3.6117]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [3.0520, 3.6523] · σ=0.1260 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=53%BULLISH +9.48%CLOSE 3.3424 vs OPEN 3.0530 (+9.48%)&#9650; CLOSE 3.34243.65233.50223.35213.20213.0520μ close = 3.4111O3.053 H3.093 L3.052 C3.087 (+1.11%)O3.053 H3.093 L3.052 C3.087 (+1.11%)O3.087 H3.132 L3.075 C3.131 (+1.40%)O3.087 H3.132 L3.075 C3.131 (+1.40%)5.4%O3.135 H3.311 L3.135 C3.304 (+5.37%)O3.135 H3.311 L3.135 C3.304 (+5.37%)O3.305 H3.391 L3.252 C3.344 (+1.17%)O3.305 H3.391 L3.252 C3.344 (+1.17%)O3.345 H3.415 L3.292 C3.329 (-0.48%)O3.345 H3.415 L3.292 C3.329 (-0.48%)O3.329 H3.483 L3.324 C3.429 (+3.01%)O3.329 H3.483 L3.324 C3.429 (+3.01%)O3.430 H3.630 L3.430 C3.596 (+4.83%)O3.430 H3.630 L3.430 C3.596 (+4.83%)O3.594 H3.614 L3.474 C3.517 (-2.13%)O3.594 H3.614 L3.474 C3.517 (-2.13%)O3.509 H3.550 L3.444 C3.536 (+0.77%)O3.509 H3.550 L3.444 C3.536 (+0.77%)O3.556 H3.614 L3.488 C3.612 (+1.57%)O3.556 H3.614 L3.488 C3.612 (+1.57%)O3.613 H3.652 L3.491 C3.522 (-2.54%)O3.613 H3.652 L3.491 C3.522 (-2.54%)O3.522 H3.576 L3.495 C3.554 (+0.88%)O3.522 H3.576 L3.495 C3.554 (+0.88%)O3.547 H3.607 L3.524 C3.537 (-0.30%)O3.547 H3.607 L3.524 C3.537 (-0.30%)O3.541 H3.552 L3.448 C3.475 (-1.87%)O3.541 H3.552 L3.448 C3.475 (-1.87%)O3.484 H3.497 L3.410 C3.415 (-1.96%)O3.484 H3.497 L3.410 C3.415 (-1.96%)O3.421 H3.506 L3.370 C3.389 (-0.94%)O3.421 H3.506 L3.370 C3.389 (-0.94%)O3.393 H3.486 L3.373 C3.466 (+2.17%)O3.393 H3.486 L3.373 C3.466 (+2.17%)O3.468 H3.472 L3.415 C3.439 (-0.84%)O3.468 H3.472 L3.415 C3.439 (-0.84%)O3.443 H3.459 L3.394 C3.398 (-1.32%)O3.443 H3.459 L3.394 C3.398 (-1.32%)O3.399 H3.418 L3.381 C3.416 (+0.49%)O3.399 H3.418 L3.381 C3.416 (+0.49%)O3.414 H3.414 L3.354 C3.359 (-1.60%)O3.414 H3.414 L3.354 C3.359 (-1.60%)O3.357 H3.407 L3.347 C3.370 (+0.38%)O3.357 H3.407 L3.347 C3.370 (+0.38%)O3.367 H3.385 L3.363 C3.376 (+0.26%)O3.367 H3.385 L3.363 C3.376 (+0.26%)O3.375 H3.381 L3.325 C3.337 (-1.14%)O3.375 H3.381 L3.325 C3.337 (-1.14%)O3.338 H3.344 L3.328 C3.342 (+0.14%)O3.338 H3.344 L3.328 C3.342 (+0.14%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=325,518 · μ=13020.7 · σ=14364.3 · CV=1.10BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=8017,49334,98652,47969,972μ = 130211,397.78 · 2.0% peak1,397.78 · 2.0% peak3,356.37 · 4.8% peak3,356.37 · 4.8% peak10,514.89 · 15.0% peak10,514.89 · 15.0% peak16,732.52 · 23.9% peak16,732.52 · 23.9% peak11,187.76 · 16.0% peak11,187.76 · 16.0% peak19,441.23 · 27.8% peak19,441.23 · 27.8% peak30,566.96 · 43.7% peak30,566.96 · 43.7% peak69,971.6369,971.63 · 100.0% peak69,971.63 · 100.0% peak13,547.89 · 19.4% peak13,547.89 · 19.4% peak15,323.52 · 21.9% peak15,323.52 · 21.9% peak14,805.96 · 21.2% peak14,805.96 · 21.2% peak7,395.87 · 10.6% peak7,395.87 · 10.6% peak8,109.9 · 11.6% peak8,109.9 · 11.6% peak10,889.8 · 15.6% peak10,889.8 · 15.6% peak19,625.31 · 28.0% peak19,625.31 · 28.0% peak30,113.38 · 43.0% peak30,113.38 · 43.0% peak5,118.7 · 7.3% peak5,118.7 · 7.3% peak9,546.94 · 13.6% peak9,546.94 · 13.6% peak5,283.79 · 7.6% peak5,283.79 · 7.6% peak9,491.91 · 13.6% peak9,491.91 · 13.6% peak4,824.64 · 6.9% peak4,824.64 · 6.9% peak4,442.38 · 6.3% peak4,442.38 · 6.3% peak1,499.97 · 2.1% peak1,499.97 · 2.1% peak1,960.41 · 2.8% peak1,960.41 · 2.8% peak368.25 · 0.5% peak368.25 · 0.5% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 325518 · peak 69972 · CV 1.10

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0044 · σ=0.0196 · skew=0.90 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.23 (mesokurtic)54310 2-219.98bpbin -219.98bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -219.98bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-154.11bpbin -154.11bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -154.11bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 4-88.23bpbin -88.23bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -88.23bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-22.36bpbin -22.36bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -22.36bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 543.51bpbin 43.51bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 43.51bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 3109.39bpbin 109.39bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 109.39bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak175.26bp 2241.13bpbin 241.13bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 241.13bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1307.01bpbin 307.01bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 307.01bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak372.88bp438.75bp 2504.63bpbin 504.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 504.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 13 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.88 · kurt=0.27 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$3.3432
Mid price
$3.343
24h change
+8.53%
Mark–mid spread
0.60 bps
Prev-day close
$3.0803

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.70)
μ MEAN3.4111$95% CI: [3.3618$, 3.4605$]
σ STD DEV0.1260$σ² = 0.016 · CV = 3.69%
med MEDIAN3.4154$Q₁ 3.3441$ · Q₃ 3.5170$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.5249$ · IQR 0.1729$ (1.349σ→0.1699$)
min 3.0868$Q₁ 3.3441$med 3.4154$Q₃ 3.5170$max 3.6117$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.703left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.415mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.98
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.17
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=15.12
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.331476%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.161
σᵣ STD / h2.052540%σ²ᵣ = 4.213×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.19×
σ ANNUALISED192.11%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.053%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)15.12excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)20.72strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.94right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.63mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.37
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+2903.73%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.15%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.145%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.456%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.371%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN7.62%14h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.145%VaR₉₉−2.456%ES₉₅−2.371%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 14h duration
PEAK361.17$
−7.62% drawdown over 14h
333.66$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.11× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.14× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +8.24% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
57.2 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.171 · within band
Bollinger upper
$3.6241
Bollinger MA
$3.4542
Bollinger lower
$3.2844

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.059within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.118lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.904strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.793fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.904
H = 0.904STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=3
k=1+0.059k=2-0.118k=3 ★+0.454k=4+0.153k=5-0.0370+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.79)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.87very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.79)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$1.12M
Open interest (USD)
$385.83k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.91x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.868× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.934× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.967×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 5.38% · worst -2.53% · typical |Δ| 1.56%MILD BULLISH +7.96%BEST+5.38%13hWORST-2.53%21hTYPICAL |Δ|1.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+7.96%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.64% · Σ -5.15%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.88% · Σ +7.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.76% · Σ +6.06%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +7.96%+15.70%0.00%1.41% · 12h1.41% · 12h1.41%12h5.38% · 13h5.38% · 13h5.38%13h★ BEST1.22% · 14h1.22% · 14h1.22%14h-0.46% · 15h-0.46% · 15h-0.46%15h2.97% · 16h2.97% · 16h2.97%16h4.74% · 17h4.74% · 17h4.74%17h-2.21% · 18h-2.21% · 18h-2.21%18h0.54% · 19h0.54% · 19h0.54%19h2.12% · 20h2.12% · 20h2.12%20h-2.53% · 21h-2.53% · 21h-2.53%21h▼ WORST0.91% · 22h0.91% · 22h0.91%22h-0.47% · 23h-0.47% · 23h-0.47%23h-1.76% · 00h-1.76% · 00h-1.76%00h-1.73% · 01h-1.73% · 01h-1.73%01h-0.78% · 02h-0.78% · 02h-0.78%02h2.27% · 03h2.27% · 03h2.27%03h-0.78% · 04h-0.78% · 04h-0.78%04h-1.20% · 05h-1.20% · 05h-1.20%05h0.51% · 06h0.51% · 06h0.51%06h-1.67% · 07h-1.67% · 07h-1.67%07h0.33% · 08h0.33% · 08h0.33%08h0.17% · 09h0.17% · 09h0.17%09h-1.17% · 10h-1.17% · 10h-1.17%10h0.17% · 11h0.17% · 11h0.17%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+7.05%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH54% up · 46% down
13 up bars · 11 down · best 5.38% · worst -2.53% · typical |Δ| 1.563%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +7.75%FINAL+7.75%MAX DD-7.74%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+16.59%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0775 · peak 1.1659 · range [1.0000, 1.1659]1.16591.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1659UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.74% · significant0%-7.74%▼ TROUGH -7.74%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -7.74%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -2.21%bar 8-9 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.46%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.74%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0775 (7.75%) · max DD -7.74% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-4.53 · σ=45.50UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -28.40 (-0.52σ vs μ)106.2653.130.00-53.13-106.26μ = -4.53106.26106.2661.0161.0142.9442.9447.9747.9730.2530.2520.3720.37-14.11-14.11-10.79-10.79-30.24-30.24-81.77-81.77-15.57-15.57-34.52-34.52-41.57-41.57-18.46-18.46-17.94-17.94-5.88-5.88-45.62-45.62-49.98-49.98-28.40-28.40v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.398 · range [-81.77, 106.26] · μ -4.528 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=167.6810 · σ=61.9648 · range [84.5655, 278.4216] · R²=0.792▼ FALLING -59.40%σ EXTREME 36.95%LAST 85.1217278.4216229.9576181.4935133.029584.5655μ = 167.6810max 278.4216min 84.5655dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.79μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 85.12% · range [84.57%, 278.42%] · μ 167.68% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.286 · σ=0.213MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.599 (-1.47σ vs μ)0.6160.3080.000-0.308-0.616μ = -0.286-0.132-0.132-0.271-0.271-0.214-0.214-0.231-0.231-0.180-0.180-0.464-0.464-0.476-0.476-0.407-0.407-0.422-0.422-0.252-0.2520.1370.1370.0270.0270.0590.059-0.199-0.199-0.379-0.379-0.306-0.306-0.518-0.518-0.616-0.616-0.599-0.599v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.599 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.9195
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1409
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.3909
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1919
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.9159
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0446
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2160
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3289
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2185
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8271
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.934 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.05e-4 · top T=3.43h (26.9%) · top-3 cover 60.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-39.8e-46.5e-43.3e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.06e-3 · 21.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.06e-3 · 21.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.27e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.27e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.21e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.21e-5 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.50e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.50e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.93e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.93e-4 · 12.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.23e-4 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.23e-4 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.31e-3 · 26.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.31e-3 · 26.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.68e-4 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.68e-4 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.96e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.96e-4 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.86e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.86e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.93e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.93e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.50e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.50e-5 · 0.5% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=24.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 26.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.857e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 5.50× · g(f★) 0.003%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.40× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.20%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.20%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
5.50×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.40×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
2.75×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
1.38×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.85× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.001% · annualized Sharpe 9.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.85× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.004
annualized 9.90
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.15%
VaR 95%5%
0.05%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.10%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.6%
0.92×0.97×1.02×1.07×1.12×1.17×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 15.36σ ann 452% · Sortino 37.32 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%896%1791%2687%3583%4478%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)452.1%Ann. vol σ1536.3%Sharpe (ann)3731.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.8463.0273.2093.3913.5723.754t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:23:03 UTC
Snapshot age
2.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:23:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
b8a01cde781a405486a68697cb8245ae9d8e6d909e7acf352c08f78524714f07 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.20K
bid $3.44K · ask $762
Depth within 10bp
$10.70K
bid $6.34K · ask $4.35K
Depth within 50bp
$70.14K
bid $23.49K · ask $46.65K
Mid price
3.343900
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.144
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.035
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ORDI/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K3.34482.81bp3.34562FILLED
BUY$10.00K3.347310.09bp3.34896FILLED
BUY$100.00K3.356637.86bp3.372920PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K3.34322.21bp3.34312FILLED
SELL$10.00K3.34098.89bp3.33798FILLED
SELL$100.00K3.321068.52bp3.309920FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-ORDI/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$3.0000–$4.0000★25$325.52K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ORDI/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.150 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$137.80K
real volume
Sell weight
$186.32K
real volume
Net delta
$48.52K
sellers net
Imbalance
-14.97%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
15.0%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ORDI/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 6.17% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 21:00:00Z5.0h3.6117→3.38876.174%6
#22026-06-20 04:00:00Z7.0h3.4664→3.33663.745%8
#32026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h3.5957→3.51702.189%2

/api/asset/hl-ORDI/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
452.09%
σ per bar = 0.001972
Mean return (annualised)
6945.24%
μ per bar = 0.000013
Sharpe (rf=0)
15.36
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.69%
peak 3.14 → trough 2.96 over 1344 bars

/api/asset/hl-ORDI/risk · same metrics, JSON