HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NOT

NOT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-not · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.11%
realized vol (ann.)
178.51%
max drawdown
4.34%
sharpe
15.23
ulcer index
2.29%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.01%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.12%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
1189.36
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
3.84%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.04
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
707.85
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.04
upside/downside
roll spread
5.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.11%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • 24h change +2.11%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 20.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-NOT/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.000
24h Δ · live
2.11%
24h vol · live
$0.4M
NOT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0005, 0.0005] · R²=0.285▼ FALLING -0.61%σ NORMAL 2.02%LAST 0.00050.00050.00050.00050.00050.0005μ = 0.0005max 0.0005min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=751,317,322 · μ=30052692.9 · σ=38246901.7 · CV=1.27BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12042,958,84385,917,686128,876,528171,835,371μ = 30052693171,835,37150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 171835371 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.2s
$mark $
$0.0005
$mid $
$0.0005
◉prev-day close
$0.0005
Δ24h Δ %
+2.105%
$24h vol $
$358.46k
◐open interest $
$355.22k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0005, 0.0005] · R²=0.285▼ FALLING -0.61%σ NORMAL 2.02%LAST 0.00050.00050.00050.00050.00050.0005μ = 0.0005max 0.0005min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0005 · 24h 2.11% · range $[0.0005, 0.0005]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.0005, 0.0005] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=50%BULLISH +2.11%CLOSE 0.0005 vs OPEN 0.0005 (+2.11%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.00050.00050.00050.00050.00050.0005μ close = 0.0005O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.74%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.74%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.84%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.84%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.40%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.40%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.001 (+0.80%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.001 (+0.80%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.39%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.39%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.41%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.41%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.04%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.04%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.69%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.69%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.71%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.71%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.85%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.85%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.69%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.69%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.50%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.50%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.47%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.47%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.04%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.04%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.10%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.10%)3.6%O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+3.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+3.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=751,317,322 · μ=30052692.9 · σ=38246901.7 · CV=1.27BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=12042,958,84385,917,686128,876,528171,835,371μ = 3005269355,469,461 · 32.3% peak55,469,461 · 32.3% peak25,343,682 · 14.7% peak25,343,682 · 14.7% peak12,427,265 · 7.2% peak12,427,265 · 7.2% peak7,845,311 · 4.6% peak7,845,311 · 4.6% peak21,080,473 · 12.3% peak21,080,473 · 12.3% peak59,891,340 · 34.9% peak59,891,340 · 34.9% peak6,326,920 · 3.7% peak6,326,920 · 3.7% peak53,071,627 · 30.9% peak53,071,627 · 30.9% peak31,594,993 · 18.4% peak31,594,993 · 18.4% peak2,867,614 · 1.7% peak2,867,614 · 1.7% peak6,068,399 · 3.5% peak6,068,399 · 3.5% peak171,835,371171,835,371 · 100.0% peak171,835,371 · 100.0% peak19,117,239 · 11.1% peak19,117,239 · 11.1% peak91,015,655 · 53.0% peak91,015,655 · 53.0% peak8,157,112 · 4.7% peak8,157,112 · 4.7% peak19,781,070 · 11.5% peak19,781,070 · 11.5% peak4,793,076 · 2.8% peak4,793,076 · 2.8% peak7,831,980 · 4.6% peak7,831,980 · 4.6% peak76,382,294 · 44.5% peak76,382,294 · 44.5% peak11,076,575 · 6.4% peak11,076,575 · 6.4% peak14,705,551 · 8.6% peak14,705,551 · 8.6% peak28,170,538 · 16.4% peak28,170,538 · 16.4% peak8,217,838 · 4.8% peak8,217,838 · 4.8% peak8,205,158 · 4.8% peak8,205,158 · 4.8% peak40,780 · 0.0% peak40,780 · 0.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 751317322 · peak 171835371 · CV 1.27

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0140 · skew=0.32 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.20 (mesokurtic)43210 1-247.37bpbin -247.37bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -247.37bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-192.97bpbin -192.97bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -192.97bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 3-138.58bpbin -138.58bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -138.58bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 3-84.18bpbin -84.18bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -84.18bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-29.78bpbin -29.78bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -29.78bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 424.62bpbin 24.62bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 24.62bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 479.01bpbin 79.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 79.01bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2133.41bpbin 133.41bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 133.41bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2187.81bpbin 187.81bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 187.81bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak242.20bp296.60bp 1351.00bpbin 351.00bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 351.00bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 10 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.36 · kurt=0.03 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0005
Mid price
$0.0005
24h change
+2.11%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0005

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0005$95% CI: [0.0005$, 0.0005$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.02%
med MEDIAN0.0005$Q₁ 0.0005$ · Q₃ 0.0005$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0005$Q₁ 0.0005$med 0.0005$Q₃ 0.0005$max 0.0005$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.295approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.885mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.94
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.70
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-1.59
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.025694%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.017
σᵣ STD / h1.509882%σ²ᵣ = 2.280×10⁻⁴ · CV = 58.76×
σ ANNUALISED141.32%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.510%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-1.59negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-1.60downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-31.32drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.39approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.33mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.00
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -31.32
EXPECTED EDGE-225.08%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.06%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.059%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.589%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.406%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN7.19%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.059%VaR₉₉−2.589%ES₉₅−2.406%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK0.05$
−7.19% drawdown over 11h
0.05$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.17× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.26× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.74% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.757 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0005
Bollinger MA
$0.0005
Bollinger lower
$0.0005

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.262within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.181lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.897strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.028significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.897
H = 0.897STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.262k=2+0.181k=3-0.266k=4+0.016k=5+0.0120+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.03)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.03)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$358.46k
Open interest (USD)
$355.22k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.01x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-1.127× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-0.564× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-0.282×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.78% · worst -2.75% · typical |Δ| 1.17%MILD BEARISH -0.62%BEST+3.78%15hWORST-2.75%04hTYPICAL |Δ|1.17%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.62%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.29%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.86%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.62%+2.63%-4.83%1.83% · 17h1.83% · 17h1.83%17h-0.20% · 18h-0.20% · 18h-0.20%18h1.00% · 19h1.00% · 19h1.00%19h-2.02% · 20h-2.02% · 20h-2.02%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h-0.61% · 22h-0.61% · 22h-0.61%22h-2.07% · 23h-2.07% · 23h-2.07%23h-1.47% · 00h-1.47% · 00h-1.47%00h0.84% · 01h0.84% · 01h0.84%01h-0.42% · 02h-0.42% · 02h-0.42%02h1.26% · 03h1.26% · 03h1.26%03h-2.75% · 04h-2.75% · 04h-2.75%04h▼ WORST1.06% · 05h1.06% · 05h1.06%05h-1.49% · 06h-1.49% · 06h-1.49%06h1.92% · 07h1.92% · 07h1.92%07h0.84% · 08h0.84% · 08h0.84%08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h1.04% · 10h1.04% · 10h1.04%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-1.04% · 12h-1.04% · 12h-1.04%12h-0.84% · 13h-0.84% · 13h-0.84%13h-1.49% · 14h-1.49% · 14h-1.49%14h3.78% · 15h3.78% · 15h3.78%15h★ BEST0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.29%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 46% down · 13% flat
10 up bars · 11 down · best 3.78% · worst -2.75% · typical |Δ| 1.174%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.87%)FINAL-0.87%MAX DD-7.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.64%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9913 · peak 1.0264 · range [0.9515, 1.0264]1.02640.9515break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0264UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.30% · significant0%-7.30%▼ TROUGH -7.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -7.30%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.20%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9913 (-0.87%) · max DD -7.30% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-12.38 · σ=33.31MIXED EDGELAST 3.37 (+0.47σ vs μ)66.2633.130.00-33.13-66.26μ = -12.382.402.40-46.90-46.90-61.85-61.85-66.26-66.26-51.61-51.61-29.96-29.96-44.68-44.68-14.27-14.27-14.45-14.45-3.64-3.647.167.16-3.73-3.7344.6144.6130.7930.7941.8641.860.000.00-39.71-39.7111.6211.623.373.37v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 3.371 · range [-66.26, 44.61] · μ -12.381 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=130.9057 · σ=32.5215 · range [79.1750, 182.6246] · R²=0.021▲ RISING +43.63%σ EXTREME 24.84%LAST 178.9467182.6246156.7622130.8998105.037479.1750μ = 130.9057max 182.6246min 79.1750dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 178.95% · range [79.17%, 182.62%] · μ 130.91% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.259 · σ=0.321MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.193 (+0.21σ vs μ)0.7050.3530.000-0.353-0.705μ = -0.259-0.349-0.349-0.365-0.365-0.338-0.338-0.216-0.2160.0520.0520.0880.088-0.230-0.230-0.682-0.682-0.702-0.702-0.705-0.705-0.541-0.541-0.368-0.368-0.558-0.558-0.420-0.4200.1010.1010.2440.2440.3940.394-0.144-0.144-0.193-0.193v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.193 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.7179
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6984
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.9044
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4284
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9010
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3424
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1137
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0903
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0463
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2954
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.682 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.79e-4 · top T=2.00h (43.1%) · top-3 cover 70.4%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.4e-31.1e-37.2e-43.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.61e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.61e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.97e-4 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.38e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.38e-4 · 10.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.05e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.05e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.62e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.62e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.68e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.68e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.61e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.61e-4 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.01e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.01e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.65e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.65e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.73e-4 · 17.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.73e-4 · 17.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.10e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.10e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.44e-3 · 43.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.44e-3 · 43.1% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 43.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.343e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.005%/barparametric μ/σ² 13.01× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.08%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.08%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
13.01×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.002% · annualized Sharpe 23.91400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.010
annualized 23.91
μ per barafter L
0.003%
σ per barafter L
0.24%
VaR 95%5%
0.62%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.65%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.6%
0.87×0.94×1.00×1.07×1.13×1.19×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 23.98σ ann 184% · Sortino 8.84 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%576%1151%1727%2302%2878%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)184.3%Ann. vol σ2398.3%Sharpe (ann)884.1%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.003% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:00:12 UTC
Snapshot age
1.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:00:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
91b5cf27d8ed57b0ea93504aa91c273ff17adefd9dc4cc3372bca0126c7b0a87 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$16.37K
bid $7.40K · ask $8.98K
Mid price
0.000486
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
20.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.045
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.095
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NOT/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00048610.30bp0.0004861FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00048723.96bp0.0004894FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000501312.55bp0.00060020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00048510.30bp0.0004851FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00048432.25bp0.0004824FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000471306.49bp0.00038620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-NOT/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$751.32M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NOT/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.399 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$486.91M
real volume
Sell weight
$208.94M
real volume
Net delta
$277.97M
buyers net
Imbalance
39.95%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
39.9%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-NOT/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 5.79% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 20:00:00Z6.0h0.000501→0.0004725.788%7
#22026-06-14 12:00:00Z2.0h0.000483→0.0004673.313%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.000480→0.0004653.125%3

/api/asset/hl-NOT/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
184.29%
σ per bar = 0.000804
Mean return (annualised)
4419.89%
μ per bar = 0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
23.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.12%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 2431 bars

/api/asset/hl-NOT/risk · same metrics, JSON