HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NEAR

NEAR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-near · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -0.69%
realized vol (ann.)
69.47%
max drawdown
1.74%
sharpe
-7.95
ulcer index
0.89%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.74%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-618.16
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.64%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-337.29
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-0.69%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-NEAR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.140
24h Δ · live
-0.69%
24h vol · live
$21.2M
NEAR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.1534 · σ=0.0152 · range [2.1221, 2.1872] · R²=0.017▼ FALLING -1.05%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 2.13962.18722.17092.15472.13842.1221μ = 2.1534max 2.1872min 2.1221dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.14
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=10,367,687 · μ=414707.5 · σ=350780.8 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=90322,862645,724968,5861,291,447μ = 4147071,291,447.450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1291447 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.2s
$mark $
$2.1397
$mid $
$2.1398
◉prev-day close
$2.1545
Δ24h Δ %
-0.687%
$24h vol $
$21.20M
◐open interest $
$81.95M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.1534 · σ=0.0152 · range [2.1221, 2.1872] · R²=0.017▼ FALLING -1.05%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 2.13962.18722.17092.15472.13842.1221μ = 2.1534max 2.1872min 2.1221dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.1397 · 24h -0.69% · range $[2.1221, 2.1872]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [2.1181, 2.1936] · σ=0.0152 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=52%BULLISH +0.34%CLOSE 2.1396 vs OPEN 2.1323 (+0.34%)&#9650; CLOSE 2.13962.19362.17472.15592.13702.1181μ close = 2.15341.4%O2.132 H2.179 L2.124 C2.162 (+1.41%)O2.132 H2.179 L2.124 C2.162 (+1.41%)O2.163 H2.178 L2.142 C2.152 (-0.49%)O2.163 H2.178 L2.142 C2.152 (-0.49%)O2.151 H2.169 L2.146 C2.164 (+0.61%)O2.151 H2.169 L2.146 C2.164 (+0.61%)O2.164 H2.183 L2.132 C2.142 (-1.04%)O2.164 H2.183 L2.132 C2.142 (-1.04%)O2.142 H2.165 L2.137 C2.159 (+0.77%)O2.142 H2.165 L2.137 C2.159 (+0.77%)O2.158 H2.162 L2.137 C2.145 (-0.61%)O2.158 H2.162 L2.137 C2.145 (-0.61%)O2.144 H2.147 L2.118 C2.122 (-1.03%)O2.144 H2.147 L2.118 C2.122 (-1.03%)O2.123 H2.152 L2.123 C2.150 (+1.24%)O2.123 H2.152 L2.123 C2.150 (+1.24%)O2.150 H2.159 L2.125 C2.132 (-0.86%)O2.150 H2.159 L2.125 C2.132 (-0.86%)O2.132 H2.160 L2.130 C2.159 (+1.26%)O2.132 H2.160 L2.130 C2.159 (+1.26%)O2.159 H2.193 L2.154 C2.187 (+1.32%)O2.159 H2.193 L2.154 C2.187 (+1.32%)O2.186 H2.192 L2.156 C2.157 (-1.35%)O2.186 H2.192 L2.156 C2.157 (-1.35%)O2.156 H2.178 L2.151 C2.168 (+0.54%)O2.156 H2.178 L2.151 C2.168 (+0.54%)O2.169 H2.176 L2.153 C2.167 (-0.11%)O2.169 H2.176 L2.153 C2.167 (-0.11%)O2.168 H2.173 L2.157 C2.160 (-0.34%)O2.168 H2.173 L2.157 C2.160 (-0.34%)O2.160 H2.178 L2.156 C2.174 (+0.65%)O2.160 H2.178 L2.156 C2.174 (+0.65%)O2.175 H2.194 L2.167 C2.177 (+0.11%)O2.175 H2.194 L2.167 C2.177 (+0.11%)O2.177 H2.181 L2.156 C2.160 (-0.78%)O2.177 H2.181 L2.156 C2.160 (-0.78%)O2.159 H2.162 L2.139 C2.139 (-0.94%)O2.159 H2.162 L2.139 C2.139 (-0.94%)O2.141 H2.148 L2.134 C2.144 (+0.15%)O2.141 H2.148 L2.134 C2.144 (+0.15%)O2.144 H2.155 L2.138 C2.153 (+0.41%)O2.144 H2.155 L2.138 C2.153 (+0.41%)O2.153 H2.160 L2.136 C2.143 (-0.50%)O2.153 H2.160 L2.136 C2.143 (-0.50%)O2.143 H2.145 L2.122 C2.135 (-0.38%)O2.143 H2.145 L2.122 C2.135 (-0.38%)O2.135 H2.153 L2.132 C2.145 (+0.48%)O2.135 H2.153 L2.132 C2.145 (+0.48%)O2.144 H2.158 L2.124 C2.140 (-0.23%)O2.144 H2.158 L2.124 C2.140 (-0.23%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=10,367,687 · μ=414707.5 · σ=350780.8 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=90322,862645,724968,5861,291,447μ = 414707842,810.7 · 65.3% peak842,810.7 · 65.3% peak1,242,582.4 · 96.2% peak1,242,582.4 · 96.2% peak316,911.1 · 24.5% peak316,911.1 · 24.5% peak764,380 · 59.2% peak764,380 · 59.2% peak279,003 · 21.6% peak279,003 · 21.6% peak289,895.9 · 22.4% peak289,895.9 · 22.4% peak652,012 · 50.5% peak652,012 · 50.5% peak287,137.1 · 22.2% peak287,137.1 · 22.2% peak663,969.3 · 51.4% peak663,969.3 · 51.4% peak217,796.1 · 16.9% peak217,796.1 · 16.9% peak224,317.7 · 17.4% peak224,317.7 · 17.4% peak465,217.8 · 36.0% peak465,217.8 · 36.0% peak109,774 · 8.5% peak109,774 · 8.5% peak108,952.5 · 8.4% peak108,952.5 · 8.4% peak117,680.2 · 9.1% peak117,680.2 · 9.1% peak65,076.4 · 5.0% peak65,076.4 · 5.0% peak176,865.7 · 13.7% peak176,865.7 · 13.7% peak148,450.9 · 11.5% peak148,450.9 · 11.5% peak107,783.1 · 8.3% peak107,783.1 · 8.3% peak109,878.4 · 8.5% peak109,878.4 · 8.5% peak187,452.7 · 14.5% peak187,452.7 · 14.5% peak825,389.5 · 63.9% peak825,389.5 · 63.9% peak1,291,447.41,291,447.4 · 100.0% peak1,291,447.4 · 100.0% peak386,873.9 · 30.0% peak386,873.9 · 30.0% peak486,028.8 · 37.6% peak486,028.8 · 37.6% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 10367687 · peak 1291447 · CV 0.85

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0076 · skew=0.10 (symmetric) · kurt=-1.17 (platykurtic (thin tails))43210 1-128.69bpbin -128.69bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -128.69bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 3-106.13bpbin -106.13bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -106.13bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-83.58bpbin -83.58bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -83.58bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 1-61.02bpbin -61.02bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -61.02bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 4-38.47bpbin -38.47bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -38.47bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 2-15.91bpbin -15.91bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -15.91bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 16.64bpbin 6.64bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 6.64bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 129.20bpbin 29.20bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 29.20bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 451.75bpbin 51.75bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 51.75bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 274.31bpbin 74.31bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 74.31bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak96.86bp 3119.42bpbin 119.42bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 119.42bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.16 · kurt=-1.03 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.1397
Mid price
$2.1398
24h change
-0.69%
Mark–mid spread
0.47 bps
Prev-day close
$2.1545

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN2.1534$95% CI: [2.1475$, 2.1594$]
σ STD DEV0.0152$σ² = 2.324×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.71%
med MEDIAN2.1531$Q₁ 2.1425$ · Q₃ 2.1624$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0651$ · IQR 0.0199$ (1.349σ→0.0206$)
min 2.1221$Q₁ 2.1425$med 2.1531$Q₃ 2.1624$max 2.1872$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.130approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.527mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.03
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.27
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-5.16
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.044166%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.055
σᵣ STD / h0.800364%σ²ᵣ = 0.641×10⁻⁴ · CV = 18.12×
σ ANNUALISED74.91%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.800%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-5.16negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-5.38downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.17approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.98mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.04
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-386.89%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.07%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.074%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.326%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.239%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.38%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.074%VaR₉₉−1.326%ES₉₅−1.239%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK218.72$
−2.38% drawdown over 12h
213.51$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.23× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.44% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
45.6 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.300 · within band
Bollinger upper
$2.1859
Bollinger MA
$2.1528
Bollinger lower
$2.1197

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.402within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.104lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.716strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.626fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.716
H = 0.716STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=4
k=1-0.402k=2-0.104k=3+0.326k=4 ★-0.465k=5+0.2970+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.63)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.83very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.63)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$21.20M
Open interest (USD)
$81.95M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.26x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-6.895× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-3.447× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.724×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.31% · worst -1.40% · typical |Δ| 0.68%MILD BEARISH -1.06%BEST+1.31%23hWORST-1.40%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.68%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.06%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.28% · Σ -2.23%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.13%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.06%+1.14%-1.88%-0.48% · 14h-0.48% · 14h-0.48%14h0.57% · 15h0.57% · 15h0.57%15h-1.05% · 16h-1.05% · 16h-1.05%16h0.79% · 17h0.79% · 17h0.79%17h-0.63% · 18h-0.63% · 18h-0.63%18h-1.08% · 19h-1.08% · 19h-1.08%19h1.30% · 20h1.30% · 20h1.30%20h-0.85% · 21h-0.85% · 21h-0.85%21h1.26% · 22h1.26% · 22h1.26%22h1.31% · 23h1.31% · 23h1.31%23h★ BEST-1.40% · 00h-1.40% · 00h-1.40%00h▼ WORST0.52% · 01h0.52% · 01h0.52%01h-0.06% · 02h-0.06% · 02h-0.06%02h-0.29% · 03h-0.29% · 03h-0.29%03h0.64% · 04h0.64% · 04h0.64%04h0.13% · 05h0.13% · 05h0.13%05h-0.78% · 06h-0.78% · 06h-0.78%06h-0.99% · 07h-0.99% · 07h-0.99%07h0.23% · 08h0.23% · 08h0.23%08h0.43% · 09h0.43% · 09h0.43%09h-0.49% · 10h-0.49% · 10h-0.49%10h-0.35% · 11h-0.35% · 11h-0.35%11h0.48% · 12h0.48% · 12h0.48%12h-0.27% · 13h-0.27% · 13h-0.27%13hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.05%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 1.31% · worst -1.40% · typical |Δ| 0.682%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.13%)FINAL-1.13%MAX DD-2.41%RECOVERYONGOING · 14 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.10%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9887 · peak 1.0110 · range [0.9812, 1.0110]1.01100.9812break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0110UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.41% · moderate0%-2.41%▼ TROUGH -2.41%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -2.41%bar 12-25 · 14 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.97%bar 4-10 · 7 bars · recovered#3 -0.48%bar 2-2 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.41%)RECOVERYongoing · 14 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9887 (-1.13%) · max DD -2.41% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-7.37 · σ=23.20MIXED EDGELAST 1.20 (+0.37σ vs μ)54.4427.220.00-27.22-54.44μ = -7.37-36.36-36.36-1.55-1.55-23.08-23.0811.2711.2717.3917.396.416.4127.8927.8911.0211.0220.2220.2211.9711.97-9.81-9.814.664.66-35.12-35.12-26.29-26.29-7.90-7.90-39.12-39.12-54.44-54.44-18.35-18.351.201.20v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 1.204 · range [-54.44, 27.89] · μ -7.368 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=79.1072 · σ=25.6938 · range [39.6847, 123.9739] · R²=0.623▼ FALLING -47.47%σ EXTREME 32.48%LAST 39.6847123.9739102.901681.829360.757039.6847μ = 79.1072max 123.9739min 39.6847dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 39.68% · range [39.68%, 123.97%] · μ 79.11% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.245 · σ=0.279MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.259 (-0.05σ vs μ)0.6030.3010.000-0.301-0.603μ = -0.245-0.530-0.530-0.507-0.507-0.587-0.587-0.533-0.533-0.204-0.204-0.459-0.459-0.462-0.462-0.364-0.364-0.197-0.197-0.603-0.603-0.290-0.290-0.166-0.1660.2590.2590.0650.0650.2420.242-0.002-0.0020.1460.146-0.214-0.214-0.259-0.259v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.259 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0831
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5819
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
17.4652
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0039
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.1217
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0249
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.7169
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0860
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1419
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4582
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8945
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0582
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.424 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.15e-5 · top T=2.67h (40.7%) · top-3 cover 68.8%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.7cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.0e-42.3e-41.5e-47.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.97e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.97e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.22e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.22e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.27e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.27e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.29e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.29e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.29e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.29e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.82e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.05e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.05e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.00e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.00e-4 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.00e-4 · 40.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.00e-4 · 40.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.07e-4 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.07e-4 · 14.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.49e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.49e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.45e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.45e-6 · 0.5% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 40.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.384e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5254346 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.06%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.06%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-21.25×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -27.83400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.012
annualized -27.83
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -30.35σ ann 143% · Sortino -21.27 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3642%-2880%-2117%-1354%-591%171%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)142.8%Ann. vol σ-3035.4%Sharpe (ann)-2127.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
2.0382.1102.1812.2522.3232.394t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 13:48:45 UTC
Snapshot age
2.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 13:48:48 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
119694428fa781a089407c5be06abe8f7b3efaaed9f417f36112ba98573aee62 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$16.53K
bid $12.79K · ask $3.74K
Depth within 10bp
$158.91K
bid $89.05K · ask $69.86K
Depth within 50bp
$273.42K
bid $125.58K · ask $147.84K
Mid price
2.139600
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.081
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.150
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NEAR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.14033.31bp2.14053FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.14074.93bp2.14108FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.14148.30bp2.141917FILLED
SELL$1.00K2.13931.63bp2.13913FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.13902.73bp2.13895FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.13826.67bp2.137318FILLED

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-NEAR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$10.37M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-NEAR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.504 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.36M
real volume
Sell weight
$7.16M
real volume
Net delta
$4.80M
sellers net
Imbalance
-50.42%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
50.4%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-NEAR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 1.95% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z1.0h2.1644→2.12211.954%2
#22026-06-20 06:00:00Z2.0h2.1771→2.13891.755%3
#32026-06-20 00:00:00Z2.0h2.1872→2.15681.390%3

/api/asset/hl-NEAR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
142.82%
σ per bar = 0.000623
Mean return (annualised)
-4335.11%
μ per bar = -0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
-30.35
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.78%
peak 2.30 → trough 2.12 over 3568 bars

/api/asset/hl-NEAR/risk · same metrics, JSON