HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HEMI

HEMI-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hemi · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -7.47%
realized vol (ann.)
76.88%
max drawdown
2.10%
sharpe
-46.58
ulcer index
1.38%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.25%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.06%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2585.54
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.86%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1928.11
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-7.47%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
354.98%
signalSHORTconfidence 55%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -7.47%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark rich vs HL oracle by 59.8bps — fade/short bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-HEMI/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.006
24h Δ · live
-7.47%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
HEMI · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0062 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0060, 0.0065] · R²=0.754▼ FALLING -6.18%σ NORMAL 1.56%LAST 0.00610.00650.00630.00620.00610.0060μ = 0.0062max 0.0065min 0.0060dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.01
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.9%Short fee 50.1%SHORT FEE50.1%
Σ = 0.1%
Σ-sides total = 0.08% (99.92pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.040523% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=8,554,081 · μ=342163.2 · σ=462022.5 · CV=1.35BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140627,9211,255,8431,883,7642,511,685μ = 3421632,511,68550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 2511685 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.6s
$mark $
$0.0061
$mid $
$0.0061
◉prev-day close
$0.0065
Δ24h Δ %
-7.471%
$24h vol $
$52.07k
◐open interest $
$2.10M
%funding (1h)
0.040523%
%funding (yr)
+354.98%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0062 · σ=0.0001 · range [0.0060, 0.0065] · R²=0.754▼ FALLING -6.18%σ NORMAL 1.56%LAST 0.00610.00650.00630.00620.00610.0060μ = 0.0062max 0.0065min 0.0060dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0061 · 24h -7.47% · range $[0.0060, 0.0065]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0060, 0.0066] · σ=0.0001 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -5.82%CLOSE 0.0061 vs OPEN 0.0064 (-5.82%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00610.00660.00650.00630.00620.0060μ close = 0.0062O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.39%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.39%)-2.0%O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-2.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.16%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.36%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.36%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.43%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.43%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.33%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.33%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.64%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.64%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.87%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.87%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.19%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.19%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.53%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.53%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.71%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.71%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.007 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.06%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.44%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.44%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.47%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.47%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.68%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.14%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.14%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.42%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.42%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.26%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.26%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.26%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-1.26%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.61%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (-0.61%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.45%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)O0.006 H0.006 L0.006 C0.006 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=8,554,081 · μ=342163.2 · σ=462022.5 · CV=1.35BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140627,9211,255,8431,883,7642,511,685μ = 342163426,249 · 17.0% peak426,249 · 17.0% peak231,462 · 9.2% peak231,462 · 9.2% peak357,200 · 14.2% peak357,200 · 14.2% peak197,770 · 7.9% peak197,770 · 7.9% peak179,506 · 7.1% peak179,506 · 7.1% peak354,028 · 14.1% peak354,028 · 14.1% peak517,911 · 20.6% peak517,911 · 20.6% peak304,157 · 12.1% peak304,157 · 12.1% peak259,323 · 10.3% peak259,323 · 10.3% peak207,701 · 8.3% peak207,701 · 8.3% peak227,617 · 9.1% peak227,617 · 9.1% peak260,174 · 10.4% peak260,174 · 10.4% peak199,001 · 7.9% peak199,001 · 7.9% peak2,511,6852,511,685 · 100.0% peak2,511,685 · 100.0% peak242,445 · 9.7% peak242,445 · 9.7% peak142,700 · 5.7% peak142,700 · 5.7% peak332,431 · 13.2% peak332,431 · 13.2% peak225,566 · 9.0% peak225,566 · 9.0% peak216,106 · 8.6% peak216,106 · 8.6% peak210,060 · 8.4% peak210,060 · 8.4% peak245,677 · 9.8% peak245,677 · 9.8% peak266,393 · 10.6% peak266,393 · 10.6% peak187,864 · 7.5% peak187,864 · 7.5% peak230,972 · 9.2% peak230,972 · 9.2% peak20,083 · 0.8% peak20,083 · 0.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 8554081 · peak 2511685 · CV 1.35

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0024 · σ=0.0069 · skew=-0.96 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.52 (mesokurtic)54310 1-215.70bpbin -215.70bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -215.70bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak-189.55bp-163.39bp 1-137.24bpbin -137.24bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -137.24bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-111.08bpbin -111.08bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -111.08bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-84.93bpbin -84.93bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -84.93bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-58.77bp 5-32.62bpbin -32.62bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -32.62bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-6.46bpbin -6.46bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -6.46bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 319.69bpbin 19.69bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 19.69bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 545.85bpbin 45.85bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 45.85bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 172.00bpbin 72.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 72.00bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.92 · kurt=0.59 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0061
Mid price
$0.0061
24h change
-7.47%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0065

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0062$95% CI: [0.0062$, 0.0063$]
σ STD DEV0.0001$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.56%
med MEDIAN0.0062$Q₁ 0.0062$ · Q₃ 0.0063$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0004$ · IQR 0.0001$ (1.349σ→0.0001$)
min 0.0060$Q₁ 0.0062$med 0.0062$Q₃ 0.0063$max 0.0065$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.231approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.073mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.15
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.87
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.37
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-33.99
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.265856%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.363
σᵣ STD / h0.732162%σ²ᵣ = 0.536×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.75×
σ ANNUALISED68.53%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.732%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-33.99negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-25.63downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.98left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.03leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.75
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-2328.90%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.27%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.270%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.056%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.783%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN6.57%22h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.270%VaR₉₉−2.056%ES₉₅−1.783%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 22h duration
PEAK0.65$
−6.57% drawdown over 22h
0.60$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.40× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONextreme-tail dominated · severe outliersratio = 1.62× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.03% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
25.0 · oversold
Bollinger %B
0.081 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0064
Bollinger MA
$0.0062
Bollinger lower
$0.0060

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.022within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.106lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.914strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-8.389significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.914
H = 0.914STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.022k=2-0.106k=3-0.117k=4-0.046k=5-0.1810+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.39)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.85very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.39)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$52.07k
Open interest (USD)
$2.10M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.02x
1h funding
0.040523%
Funding (annualised)
+354.98%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.85% · worst -2.29% · typical |Δ| 0.55%BEARISH SESSION -6.38%BEST+0.85%01hWORST-2.29%18hTYPICAL |Δ|0.55%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.38%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.38%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.30% · Σ -2.38%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.33% · Σ -2.62%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.38%+0.00%-6.79%-2.29% · 18h-2.29% · 18h-2.29%18h▼ WORST-0.03% · 19h-0.03% · 19h-0.03%19h0.11% · 20h0.11% · 20h0.11%20h-0.30% · 21h-0.30% · 21h-0.30%21h-0.40% · 22h-0.40% · 22h-0.40%22h-0.13% · 23h-0.13% · 23h-0.13%23h-0.95% · 00h-0.95% · 00h-0.95%00h0.85% · 01h0.85% · 01h0.85%01h★ BEST0.14% · 02h0.14% · 02h0.14%02h0.46% · 03h0.46% · 03h0.46%03h-1.28% · 04h-1.28% · 04h-1.28%04h0.35% · 05h0.35% · 05h0.35%05h0.00% · 06h0.00% · 06h·06h-0.97% · 07h-0.97% · 07h-0.97%07h0.39% · 08h0.39% · 08h0.39%08h0.58% · 09h0.58% · 09h0.58%09h0.14% · 10h0.14% · 10h0.14%10h-0.27% · 11h-0.27% · 11h-0.27%11h-0.37% · 12h-0.37% · 12h-0.37%12h-1.22% · 13h-1.22% · 13h-1.22%13h-1.18% · 14h-1.18% · 14h-1.18%14h-0.45% · 15h-0.45% · 15h-0.45%15h0.41% · 16h0.41% · 16h0.41%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+-1.38%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH38% up · 54% down · 8% flat
9 up bars · 13 down · best 0.85% · worst -2.29% · typical |Δ| 0.553%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.25%FINAL-6.25%MAX DD-6.63%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9375 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9337, 1.0000]1.00000.9337break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.63% · significant0%-6.63%▼ TROUGH -6.63%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -6.63%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.63%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9375 (-6.25%) · max DD -6.63% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-29.55 · σ=31.22UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -67.81 (-1.23σ vs μ)97.0248.510.00-48.51-97.02μ = -29.55-53.09-53.09-70.82-70.82-21.18-21.18-20.23-20.23-0.39-0.39-17.04-17.04-7.66-7.6611.3211.32-27.56-27.56-21.44-21.44-18.52-18.5214.0614.06-3.64-3.64-13.70-13.70-17.98-17.98-50.64-50.64-97.02-97.02-78.13-78.13-67.81-67.81v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -67.813 · range [-97.02, 14.06] · μ -29.551 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.0406 · σ=11.9036 · range [34.9308, 83.4727] · R²=0.029▼ FALLING -27.77%σ EXTREME 19.19%LAST 60.295883.472771.337259.201747.066334.9308μ = 62.0406max 83.4727min 34.9308dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 60.30% · range [34.93%, 83.47%] · μ 62.04% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.087 · σ=0.327MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.423 (+1.56σ vs μ)0.6170.3090.000-0.309-0.617μ = -0.087-0.091-0.091-0.039-0.039-0.451-0.451-0.271-0.271-0.219-0.219-0.306-0.306-0.461-0.461-0.312-0.312-0.423-0.423-0.617-0.617-0.218-0.218-0.048-0.048-0.068-0.0680.0360.0360.3870.3870.4790.4790.3270.3270.2240.2240.4230.423v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.423 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
4.9364
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0847
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.8890
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8651
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9974
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2969
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7407
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4589
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7838
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0078
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8784
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3797
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.733 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.44e-5 · top T=3.43h (20.7%) · top-3 cover 47.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.3e-41.0e-46.7e-53.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.33e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.33e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.20e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.20e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.56e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.56e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.10e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.10e-5 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.00e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.00e-4 · 15.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.63e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.63e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.35e-4 · 20.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.35e-4 · 20.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.44e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.44e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.22e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.22e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.34e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.34e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.00e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.00e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.16e-5 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.16e-5 · 11.0% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 20.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.523e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.04%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.04%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-29.49×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -20.52400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.009
annualized -20.52
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -28.19σ ann 96% · Sortino -9.91 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-3382%-2683%-1984%-1284%-585%115%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)95.6%Ann. vol σ-2818.7%Sharpe (ann)-991.0%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.007t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:05:38 UTC
Snapshot age
1.6s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:05:40 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
575f6b07874feb31b1c3f8d8ff8a38de648ee332e7f350775e4ad616e5982be0 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$1.63K
bid $750 · ask $880
Depth within 10bp
$2.64K
bid $882 · ask $1.76K
Depth within 50bp
$12.13K
bid $5.50K · ask $6.62K
Mid price
0.006056
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.132
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.387
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HEMI/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0060572.45bp0.0060612FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00608140.62bp0.00611916FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.00609463.08bp0.00615120PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0060543.69bp0.0060495FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00603240.25bp0.00601716FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.00602353.68bp0.00600920PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+4.052e-4
0.04052% / hr
Annualised APR
355.221%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
1.0d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
1.0d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-355.221%1.0d10.3d
SHORTRECEIVE355.221%1.0d10.3d

/api/asset/hl-HEMI/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$8.55M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HEMI/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.121 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$4.55M
real volume
Sell weight
$3.57M
real volume
Net delta
$981.87K
buyers net
Imbalance
12.08%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
12.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-HEMI/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 3.43% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 12:00:00Z4.0h0.006245→0.0060313.427%5
#22026-06-13 18:00:00Z2.0h0.006455→0.0063072.293%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.006294→0.0061761.875%5

/api/asset/hl-HEMI/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
95.58%
σ per bar = 0.000417
Mean return (annualised)
-2694.17%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-28.19
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.30%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 2348 bars

/api/asset/hl-HEMI/risk · same metrics, JSON