HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BLUR

BLUR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-blur · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.62%
realized vol (ann.)
47.84%
max drawdown
1.23%
sharpe
-0.31
ulcer index
0.56%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.49%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-26.53
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.06%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-13.95
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.62%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
6.16%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -2.62%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 10.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-BLUR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.018
24h Δ · live
-2.62%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
BLUR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0181 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0178, 0.0184] · R²=0.902▼ FALLING -3.15%σ NORMAL 1.27%LAST 0.01790.01840.01830.01810.01790.0178μ = 0.0181max 0.0184min 0.0178dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.90μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.7%Short fee 53.3%SHORT FEE53.3%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.997 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.7%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.3%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000703% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=6,412,458 · μ=256498.3 · σ=108978.9 · CV=0.42STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120128,967257,934386,900515,867μ = 256498515,86750%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 515867 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3s
$mark $
$0.0179
$mid $
$0.0179
◉prev-day close
$0.0183
Δ24h Δ %
-2.618%
$24h vol $
$114.47k
◐open interest $
$529.10k
%funding (1h)
0.000703%
%funding (yr)
+6.16%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0181 · σ=0.0002 · range [0.0178, 0.0184] · R²=0.902▼ FALLING -3.15%σ NORMAL 1.27%LAST 0.01790.01840.01830.01810.01790.0178μ = 0.0181max 0.0184min 0.0178dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.90μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0179 · 24h -2.62% · range $[0.0178, 0.0184]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0177, 0.0185] · σ=0.0002 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -3.07%CLOSE 0.0179 vs OPEN 0.0184 (-3.07%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.01790.01850.01830.01810.01790.0177μ close = 0.0181O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.08%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.08%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.44%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.44%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.29%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.29%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.16%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.16%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.21%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.21%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.28%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.28%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.03%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.03%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.82%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.82%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.23%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.23%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.26%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.26%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.11%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.11%)-1.0%O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.97%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.97%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.42%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.42%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.76%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.76%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.13%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.13%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.51%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.51%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.30%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.30%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.69%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.69%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.14%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.14%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.22%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.22%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.07%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.07%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.68%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (-0.68%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.06%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.06%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.01%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.01%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.44%)O0.018 H0.018 L0.018 C0.018 (+0.44%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=6,412,458 · μ=256498.3 · σ=108978.9 · CV=0.42STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120128,967257,934386,900515,867μ = 256498449,851 · 87.2% peak449,851 · 87.2% peak287,133 · 55.7% peak287,133 · 55.7% peak167,445 · 32.5% peak167,445 · 32.5% peak243,574 · 47.2% peak243,574 · 47.2% peak290,392 · 56.3% peak290,392 · 56.3% peak217,574 · 42.2% peak217,574 · 42.2% peak142,574 · 27.6% peak142,574 · 27.6% peak427,381 · 82.8% peak427,381 · 82.8% peak200,051 · 38.8% peak200,051 · 38.8% peak358,792 · 69.6% peak358,792 · 69.6% peak218,659 · 42.4% peak218,659 · 42.4% peak515,867515,867 · 100.0% peak515,867 · 100.0% peak307,539 · 59.6% peak307,539 · 59.6% peak160,239 · 31.1% peak160,239 · 31.1% peak123,522 · 23.9% peak123,522 · 23.9% peak332,814 · 64.5% peak332,814 · 64.5% peak278,224 · 53.9% peak278,224 · 53.9% peak118,635 · 23.0% peak118,635 · 23.0% peak229,316 · 44.5% peak229,316 · 44.5% peak224,380 · 43.5% peak224,380 · 43.5% peak360,847 · 69.9% peak360,847 · 69.9% peak293,512 · 56.9% peak293,512 · 56.9% peak202,842 · 39.3% peak202,842 · 39.3% peak193,789 · 37.6% peak193,789 · 37.6% peak67,506 · 13.1% peak67,506 · 13.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 6412458 · peak 515867 · CV 0.42

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0013 · σ=0.0037 · skew=-0.38 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.81 (mesokurtic)65320 1-89.94bpbin -89.94bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -89.94bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-78.18bp 4-66.43bpbin -66.43bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -66.43bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak-54.68bp 1-42.93bpbin -42.93bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -42.93bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-31.18bpbin -31.18bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -31.18bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 3-19.43bpbin -19.43bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -19.43bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 6-7.67bpbin -7.67bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -7.67bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak4.08bp 315.83bpbin 15.83bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 15.83bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 227.58bpbin 27.58bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 27.58bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 339.33bpbin 39.33bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin 39.33bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.40 · kurt=-0.75 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0179
Mid price
$0.0179
24h change
-2.62%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0183

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.54)
μ MEAN0.0181$95% CI: [0.0180$, 0.0182$]
σ STD DEV0.0002$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.27%
med MEDIAN0.0180$Q₁ 0.0179$ · Q₃ 0.0183$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0007$ · IQR 0.0004$ (1.349σ→0.0003$)
min 0.0178$Q₁ 0.0179$med 0.0180$Q₃ 0.0183$max 0.0184$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.262approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.539platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.92
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-31.31
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.133227%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.335
σᵣ STD / h0.398242%σ²ᵣ = 0.159×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.99×
σ ANNUALISED37.27%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.398%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-31.31negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-27.51downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.43approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.64mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.88
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1167.07%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.72%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.721%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.904%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.840%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.63%21h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.721%VaR₉₉−0.904%ES₉₅−0.840%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 21h duration
PEAK1.84$
−3.63% drawdown over 21h
1.78$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.16× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.25× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.77% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
32.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.295 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0184
Bollinger MA
$0.0180
Bollinger lower
$0.0176

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.321within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.127lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.949strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-14.522significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.949
H = 0.949STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.321k=2+0.127k=3-0.217k=4+0.310k=5 ★-0.4870+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=14.52)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=14.52)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$114.47k
Open interest (USD)
$529.10k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.22x
1h funding
0.000703%
Funding (annualised)
+6.16%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -0.96% · typical |Δ| 0.33%BEARISH SESSION -3.20%BEST+0.45%08hWORST-0.96%04hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.33% · Σ -2.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.48%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.20%+0.00%-3.70%-0.46% · 18h-0.46% · 18h-0.46%18h0.32% · 19h0.32% · 19h0.32%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h-0.24% · 22h-0.24% · 22h-0.24%22h-0.11% · 23h-0.11% · 23h-0.11%23h-0.72% · 00h-0.72% · 00h-0.72%00h-0.08% · 01h-0.08% · 01h-0.08%01h-0.27% · 02h-0.27% · 02h-0.27%02h-0.07% · 03h-0.07% · 03h-0.07%03h-0.96% · 04h-0.96% · 04h-0.96%04h▼ WORST0.29% · 05h0.29% · 05h0.29%05h-0.64% · 06h-0.64% · 06h-0.64%06h-0.17% · 07h-0.17% · 07h-0.17%07h0.45% · 08h0.45% · 08h0.45%08h★ BEST0.36% · 09h0.36% · 09h0.36%09h-0.70% · 10h-0.70% · 10h-0.70%10h0.16% · 11h0.16% · 11h0.16%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h-0.72% · 14h-0.72% · 14h-0.72%14h0.16% · 15h0.16% · 15h0.16%15h-0.08% · 16h-0.08% · 16h-0.08%16h0.42% · 17h0.42% · 17h0.42%17hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-0.10%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 7BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 0.45% · worst -0.96% · typical |Δ| 0.330%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.17%)FINAL-3.17%MAX DD-3.65%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9683 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9635, 1.0000]1.00000.9635break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.65% · moderate0%-3.65%▼ TROUGH -3.65%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.65%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.65%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9683 (-3.17%) · max DD -3.65% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-39.88 · σ=27.91UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -17.33 (+0.81σ vs μ)93.9946.990.00-46.99-93.99μ = -39.88-23.76-23.76-29.83-29.83-56.59-56.59-62.67-62.67-93.99-93.99-90.53-90.53-60.89-60.89-59.93-59.93-64.07-64.07-31.55-31.55-17.72-17.72-12.19-12.19-16.94-16.940.000.002.732.73-38.78-38.78-50.80-50.80-32.93-32.93-17.33-17.33v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -17.333 · range [-93.99, 2.73] · μ -39.883 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=38.1527 · σ=8.4940 · range [23.1157, 54.6708] · R²=0.132▲ RISING +32.12%σ EXTREME 22.26%LAST 35.316054.670846.782038.893231.004423.1157μ = 38.1527max 54.6708min 23.1157dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 35.32% · range [23.12%, 54.67%] · μ 38.15% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.381 · σ=0.202MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.192 (+0.94σ vs μ)0.8050.4020.000-0.402-0.805μ = -0.381-0.583-0.583-0.100-0.100-0.231-0.231-0.298-0.298-0.494-0.494-0.433-0.433-0.584-0.584-0.733-0.733-0.805-0.805-0.465-0.465-0.173-0.173-0.188-0.188-0.144-0.144-0.329-0.329-0.231-0.231-0.475-0.475-0.468-0.468-0.313-0.313-0.192-0.192v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.192 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.1316
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5679
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
15.4584
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0087
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2400
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6545
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1020
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2705
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8691
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1935
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2327
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.637 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.13e-5 · top T=2.00h (57.6%) · top-3 cover 75.5%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.5e-41.1e-47.4e-53.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.25e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.25e-6 · 3.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.52e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.52e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.42e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.42e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.08e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.08e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.06e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.06e-5 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.16e-5 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.07e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.07e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.40e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.40e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.00e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.00e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.65e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.65e-6 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.79e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.79e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.48e-4 · 57.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.48e-4 · 57.6% energy50% by T=2.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 57.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.561e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-48.67×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -19.48400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.008
annualized -19.48
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -997% · APY -100% · Sharpe -22.03σ ann 45% · Sortino -15.64 · n 4999
-2644%-2104%-1564%-1025%-485%54%-997.1%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)45.3%Ann. vol σ-2203.0%Sharpe (ann)-1564.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0170.0170.0180.0180.0180.019t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:05:38 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:05:40 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
05f3e5da299792f73db4102a27c1528814b590944783d725bae3a4062f3f06ab · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.51K
bid $1.23K · ask $1.28K
Depth within 10bp
$7.11K
bid $2.68K · ask $4.43K
Depth within 50bp
$67.51K
bid $8.32K · ask $59.20K
Mid price
0.017853
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.348
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.196
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BLUR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0178551.56bp0.0178572FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.01788015.19bp0.0178956FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.018043106.68bp0.01904020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0178482.79bp0.0178443FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.01779631.82bp0.01766110FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.017329293.39bp0.01635020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+7.027e-6
0.00070% / hr
Annualised APR
6.160%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
59.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
59.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-6.160%59.3d1.62y
SHORTRECEIVE6.160%59.3d1.62y

/api/asset/hl-BLUR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$6.41M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-BLUR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.371 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.88M
real volume
Sell weight
$4.09M
real volume
Net delta
$2.21M
sellers net
Imbalance
-37.07%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
37.1%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-BLUR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.80% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.018204→0.0178771.796%4
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.018415→0.0181551.412%3
#32026-06-14 14:00:00Z2.0h0.017926→0.0177620.915%3

/api/asset/hl-BLUR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
45.26%
σ per bar = 0.000197
Mean return (annualised)
-997.07%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-22.03
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.23%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 1380 bars

/api/asset/hl-BLUR/risk · same metrics, JSON