HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

AVNT

AVNT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-avnt · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 3.48%
realized vol (ann.)
61.06%
max drawdown
1.84%
sharpe
-44.79
ulcer index
0.72%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.58%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.02%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3806.52
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.68%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.90
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1627.84
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.90
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
3.48%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-12.08%
signalLONGconfidence 43%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +3.48%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 15.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-AVNT/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.112
24h Δ · live
3.48%
24h vol · live
$0.3M
AVNT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1103 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.1077, 0.1141] · R²=0.667▲ RISING +3.90%σ NORMAL 1.84%LAST 0.11190.11410.11250.11090.10930.1077μ = 0.1103max 0.1141min 0.1077dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.11
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.3%Short fee 51.7%SHORT FEE51.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001379% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=2,441,772 · μ=97670.9 · σ=95145.8 · CV=0.97BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=200116,751233,503350,254467,005μ = 97671467,00550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 467005 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.2s
$mark $
$0.1119
$mid $
$0.1119
◉prev-day close
$0.1081
Δ24h Δ %
+3.478%
$24h vol $
$266.45k
◐open interest $
$522.32k
%funding (1h)
-0.001379%
%funding (yr)
-12.08%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1103 · σ=0.0020 · range [0.1077, 0.1141] · R²=0.667▲ RISING +3.90%σ NORMAL 1.84%LAST 0.11190.11410.11250.11090.10930.1077μ = 0.1103max 0.1141min 0.1077dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1119 · 24h 3.48% · range $[0.1077, 0.1141]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.1074, 0.1149] · σ=0.0020 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=47%BULLISH +3.39%CLOSE 0.1119 vs OPEN 0.1083 (+3.39%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.11190.11490.11300.11110.10920.1074μ close = 0.1103O0.108 H0.108 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.49%)O0.108 H0.108 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.49%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.109 (+0.86%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.107 C0.109 (+0.86%)O0.109 H0.110 L0.109 C0.110 (+0.82%)O0.109 H0.110 L0.109 C0.110 (+0.82%)O0.110 H0.110 L0.109 C0.109 (-0.96%)O0.110 H0.110 L0.109 C0.109 (-0.96%)O0.109 H0.110 L0.108 C0.110 (+0.64%)O0.109 H0.110 L0.108 C0.110 (+0.64%)O0.110 H0.110 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.93%)O0.110 H0.110 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.93%)O0.109 H0.109 L0.108 C0.109 (+0.18%)O0.109 H0.109 L0.108 C0.109 (+0.18%)O0.109 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.55%)O0.109 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.55%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (+0.15%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (+0.15%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.109 (+0.42%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.109 (+0.42%)O0.109 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.53%)O0.109 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (-0.53%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (+0.04%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.108 (+0.04%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.109 (+0.45%)O0.108 H0.109 L0.108 C0.109 (+0.45%)O0.109 H0.110 L0.109 C0.109 (+0.23%)O0.109 H0.110 L0.109 C0.109 (+0.23%)3.5%O0.109 H0.113 L0.108 C0.113 (+3.55%)O0.109 H0.113 L0.108 C0.113 (+3.55%)O0.113 H0.113 L0.111 C0.112 (-0.90%)O0.113 H0.113 L0.111 C0.112 (-0.90%)O0.112 H0.113 L0.111 C0.111 (-0.44%)O0.112 H0.113 L0.111 C0.111 (-0.44%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.111 C0.111 (-0.14%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.111 C0.111 (-0.14%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.111 C0.111 (-0.09%)O0.111 H0.112 L0.111 C0.111 (-0.09%)O0.111 H0.115 L0.111 C0.114 (+2.71%)O0.111 H0.115 L0.111 C0.114 (+2.71%)O0.114 H0.115 L0.113 C0.113 (-0.96%)O0.114 H0.115 L0.113 C0.113 (-0.96%)O0.113 H0.114 L0.113 C0.113 (+0.11%)O0.113 H0.114 L0.113 C0.113 (+0.11%)O0.113 H0.114 L0.113 C0.113 (+0.19%)O0.113 H0.114 L0.113 C0.113 (+0.19%)O0.113 H0.114 L0.112 C0.113 (-0.53%)O0.113 H0.114 L0.112 C0.113 (-0.53%)O0.113 H0.113 L0.112 C0.112 (-0.75%)O0.113 H0.113 L0.112 C0.112 (-0.75%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=2,441,772 · μ=97670.9 · σ=95145.8 · CV=0.97BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=200116,751233,503350,254467,005μ = 9767163,155 · 13.5% peak63,155 · 13.5% peak97,100 · 20.8% peak97,100 · 20.8% peak20,311 · 4.3% peak20,311 · 4.3% peak75,317 · 16.1% peak75,317 · 16.1% peak59,551 · 12.8% peak59,551 · 12.8% peak109,785 · 23.5% peak109,785 · 23.5% peak41,224 · 8.8% peak41,224 · 8.8% peak36,418 · 7.8% peak36,418 · 7.8% peak36,815 · 7.9% peak36,815 · 7.9% peak53,354 · 11.4% peak53,354 · 11.4% peak31,794 · 6.8% peak31,794 · 6.8% peak30,387 · 6.5% peak30,387 · 6.5% peak37,049 · 7.9% peak37,049 · 7.9% peak63,916 · 13.7% peak63,916 · 13.7% peak109,036 · 23.3% peak109,036 · 23.3% peak111,152 · 23.8% peak111,152 · 23.8% peak85,848 · 18.4% peak85,848 · 18.4% peak49,845 · 10.7% peak49,845 · 10.7% peak65,600 · 14.0% peak65,600 · 14.0% peak467,005467,005 · 100.0% peak467,005 · 100.0% peak147,230 · 31.5% peak147,230 · 31.5% peak79,941 · 17.1% peak79,941 · 17.1% peak170,911 · 36.6% peak170,911 · 36.6% peak279,043 · 59.8% peak279,043 · 59.8% peak119,985 · 25.7% peak119,985 · 25.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2441772 · peak 467005 · CV 0.97

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0016 · σ=0.0101 · skew=1.72 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.65 (leptokurtic (fat tails))65320 3-89.31bpbin -89.31bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -89.31bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 6-52.03bpbin -52.03bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -52.03bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 4-14.74bpbin -14.74bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin -14.74bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 522.54bpbin 22.54bp · n=5 · 83.3% peakbin 22.54bp · n=5 · 83.3% peak 259.82bpbin 59.82bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 59.82bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 297.11bpbin 97.11bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 97.11bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak134.39bp171.67bp208.95bp246.24bp 1283.52bpbin 283.52bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 283.52bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1320.80bpbin 320.80bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 320.80bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.60 · kurt=2.52 · near 16 / mid 7 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1119
Mid price
$0.1119
24h change
+3.48%
Mark–mid spread
2.23 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1081

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.49)
μ MEAN0.1103$95% CI: [0.1095$, 0.1111$]
σ STD DEV0.0020$σ² = 0.041×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.84%
med MEDIAN0.1096$Q₁ 0.1086$ · Q₃ 0.1119$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0063$ · IQR 0.0033$ (1.349σ→0.0027$)
min 0.1077$Q₁ 0.1086$med 0.1096$Q₃ 0.1119$max 0.1141$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.393approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.488platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.83
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.12
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=14.00
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.159357%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.150
σᵣ STD / h1.065561%σ²ᵣ = 1.135×10⁻⁴ · CV = 6.69×
σ ANNUALISED99.73%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.066%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)14.00excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)22.08strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.71right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.44leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.58
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1395.96%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.98%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.977%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.057%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.030%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.88%5h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.977%VaR₉₉−1.057%ES₉₅−1.030%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 5h duration
PEAK11.41$
−1.88% drawdown over 5h
11.19$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.08× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.92% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
57.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.653 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1149
Bollinger MA
$0.1106
Bollinger lower
$0.1064

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.232within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.022lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.959strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.795significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.959
H = 0.959STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.232k=2-0.022k=3-0.112k=4-0.196k=5+0.3510+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.79)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.79)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$266.45k
Open interest (USD)
$522.32k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.51x
1h funding
-0.001379%
Funding (annualised)
-12.08%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.39% · worst -1.08% · typical |Δ| 0.71%MILD BULLISH +3.82%BEST+3.39%01hWORST-1.08%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.71%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.82%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.50% · Σ +3.96%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.74%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.88%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.82%+5.73%0.00%0.95% · 12h0.95% · 12h0.95%12h1.04% · 13h1.04% · 13h1.04%13h-1.08% · 14h-1.08% · 14h-1.08%14h▼ WORST0.78% · 15h0.78% · 15h0.78%15h-0.98% · 16h-0.98% · 16h-0.98%16h0.24% · 17h0.24% · 17h0.24%17h-0.46% · 18h-0.46% · 18h-0.46%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.49% · 20h0.49% · 20h0.49%20h-0.46% · 21h-0.46% · 21h-0.46%21h-0.06% · 22h-0.06% · 22h-0.06%22h0.35% · 23h0.35% · 23h0.35%23h0.27% · 00h0.27% · 00h0.27%00h3.39% · 01h3.39% · 01h3.39%01h★ BEST-0.68% · 02h-0.68% · 02h-0.68%02h-0.55% · 03h-0.55% · 03h-0.55%03h-0.18% · 04h-0.18% · 04h-0.18%04h0.00% · 05h0.00% · 05h·05h2.66% · 06h2.66% · 06h2.66%06h-0.95% · 07h-0.95% · 07h-0.95%07h0.15% · 08h0.15% · 08h0.15%08h0.13% · 09h0.13% · 09h0.13%09h-0.56% · 10h-0.56% · 10h-0.56%10h-0.68% · 11h-0.68% · 11h-0.68%11hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+3.96%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 46% down · 8% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 3.39% · worst -1.08% · typical |Δ| 0.712%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +3.76% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+3.76%MAX DD-1.89%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.76%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0376 · peak 1.0576 · range [1.0000, 1.0576]1.05761.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0576UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.89% · moderate0%-1.89%▼ TROUGH -1.89%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.89%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.54%bar 4-14 · 11 bars · recovered#3 -1.40%bar 16-19 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.89%)RECOVERYongoing · 5 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0376 (3.76%) · max DD -1.89% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −5 (74% positive) · μ=11.30 · σ=21.99PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 8.92 (-0.11σ vs μ)45.0322.510.00-22.51-45.03μ = 11.3015.4215.42-7.98-7.98-32.35-32.351.561.56-34.00-34.00-10.29-10.29-5.43-5.4326.7726.7745.0345.0329.5629.5628.4428.4426.9826.9823.1923.1940.8240.823.563.5613.8313.8323.0423.0417.6717.678.928.92v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 8.922 · range [-34.00, 45.03] · μ 11.301 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=100.7686 · σ=42.1708 · range [32.1461, 166.2009] · R²=0.394▲ RISING +36.81%σ EXTREME 41.85%LAST 123.2688166.2009132.687299.173565.659832.1461μ = 100.7686max 166.2009min 32.1461dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 123.27% · range [32.15%, 166.20%] · μ 100.77% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.347 · σ=0.208MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.255 (+0.44σ vs μ)0.8060.4030.000-0.403-0.806μ = -0.347-0.423-0.423-0.779-0.779-0.806-0.806-0.528-0.528-0.383-0.383-0.462-0.462-0.280-0.280-0.283-0.2830.0290.029-0.305-0.305-0.238-0.238-0.183-0.183-0.157-0.157-0.085-0.085-0.247-0.247-0.357-0.357-0.441-0.441-0.408-0.408-0.255-0.255v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.255 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
23.5630
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.1021
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2120
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6172
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4775
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8739
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3822
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7451
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0097
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1572
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2472
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.648 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.10e-4 · top T=2.40h (23.3%) · top-3 cover 55.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.1e-42.3e-41.5e-47.7e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.09e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.09e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.57e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.57e-5 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.43e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.40e-4 · 18.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.40e-4 · 18.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.89e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.89e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.24e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.24e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.65e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.65e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.57e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.57e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.90e-4 · 14.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.90e-4 · 14.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.08e-4 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.08e-4 · 23.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.04e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.04e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.22e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.22e-5 · 2.4% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 23.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.322e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256096 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 0.79× · g(f★) 0.000%/barparametric μ/σ² 0.76× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.11%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.11%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.79×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
0.76×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.39×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.20×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.0×0.6×1.2×1.7×2.3×2.9×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.19× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -4.04400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.19× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.002
annualized -4.04
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 499% · APY 503% · Sharpe 1.95σ ann 256% · Sortino 2.32 · n 4999
0%121%242%362%483%604%499.3%APR (simple)503.1%APY (compound)256.3%Ann. vol σ194.8%Sharpe (ann)231.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1000.1040.1080.1130.1170.121t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:23:03 UTC
Snapshot age
2.2s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:23:06 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d0802da7d8f43395955112655b730ef2acb664b045994c9d7a38425f70c55f30 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$3.27K
bid $3.02K · ask $247
Depth within 10bp
$12.41K
bid $6.85K · ask $5.56K
Depth within 50bp
$50.49K
bid $26.45K · ask $24.04K
Mid price
0.111905
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.049
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.104
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-AVNT/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1119604.93bp0.1119702FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.11202010.31bp0.1121009FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.11210818.12bp0.11228020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1118722.92bp0.1118603FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1118128.35bp0.1117608FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.11168519.63bp0.11144020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.379e-5
-0.00138% / hr
Annualised APR
-12.087%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
30.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
30.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE12.087%30.2d302.2d
SHORTPAY-12.087%30.2d302.2d

/api/asset/hl-AVNT/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$2.44M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-AVNT/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BALANCED · +0.008 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.20M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.18M
real volume
Net delta
$20.18K
buyers net
Imbalance
0.85%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
0.8%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-AVNT/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.88% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-20 07:00:00Z4.0h0.114080→0.1119301.885%5
#22026-06-19 16:00:00Z2.0h0.109900→0.1082601.492%3
#32026-06-20 02:00:00Z3.0h0.112660→0.1110901.394%4

/api/asset/hl-AVNT/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
256.28%
σ per bar = 0.001118
Mean return (annualised)
499.27%
μ per bar = 0.000001
Sharpe (rf=0)
1.95
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.76%
peak 0.11 → trough 0.10 over 2345 bars

/api/asset/hl-AVNT/risk · same metrics, JSON