TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “crude · oil · hit” (19 markets)

Top terms: crudeoilhitwticlend

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?-5.054169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?-4.638168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?-4.372169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?-3.964169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?-3.667169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?-3.502169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?-3.155169no rejection · independent
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?-2.871169no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-low-65-in-june-765-291-626 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts
realized vol (ann.)
46.01%
max drawdown
21.02%
sharpe
ulcer index
11.37%
RMS drawdown
pain index
9.53%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
21.02%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.21
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.21
upside/downside
roll spread
4.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
887
store
spread
24h Δ
flow lean
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-low-65-in-june-765-291-626/bundle · venue execution: polymarket