TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “cup · world · fifa” (39 markets)

Top terms: cupworldfifasports2026win

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-3.541169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-3.347169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-3.307169no rejection · independent
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-3.080169no rejection · independent
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.892169no rejection · independent
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.882169no rejection · independent
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.882169no rejection · independent
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.882169no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-rafael-leao-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
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max drawdown
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sharpe
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ulcer index
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RMS drawdown
pain index
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mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
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Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
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ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
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cond. drawdown
gain/pain
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Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
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ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
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upside/downside
roll spread
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implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
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24h Δ
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flow lean
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carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-rafael-leao-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →