TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “f1 · champion · drivers” (21 markets)
Top terms: f1championdriverssports2026cadillac
- Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $139.9k 24h
- Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $53.0k 24h
- Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?0.4¢ YES · $31.2k 24h
- Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $28.5k 24h
- Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?2.5¢ YES · $51.3k 24h
- Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $44.9k 24h
- Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $206.7k 24h
- Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $185.2k 24h
- Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $49.1k 24h
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?18.5¢ YES · $35.1k 24h
- Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.4¢ YES · $32.5k 24h
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?59.3¢ YES · $30.4k 24h
- Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.4¢ YES · $44.9k 24h
- Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?12.1¢ YES · $175.3k 24h
- Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $59.9k 24h
- Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?2.5¢ YES · $36.0k 24h
- Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $61.2k 24h
- Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $42.0k 24h
- ★ Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $51.8k 24h
- Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.4¢ YES · $44.1k 24h
- Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.3¢ YES · $47.9k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.237 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -4.332 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.428 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| NaN | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.250 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.250 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-pierre-gasly-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
146
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-pierre-gasly-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →