POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

YES · live
13.1¢
NO · live
86.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-lewis-hamilton-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 249.33%
realized vol (ann.)
190.31%
max drawdown
20.66%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
7.46%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
17.44%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.35
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.35
upside/downside
roll spread
13.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
249.33%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +249.33%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-lewis-hamilton-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
13.1¢
NO · live
86.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0536 · σ=0.0309 · range [0.0305, 0.1480] · R²=0.502▲ RISING +251.47%σ EXTREME 57.59%LAST 0.11950.14800.11860.08920.05990.0305μ = 0.0536max 0.1480min 0.0305dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 11.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 13.1%NO 86.9%NO86.9%86.90¢ · odds 1/1.15
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.560 / 1.00 bits (56%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
13.1%13.1¢7.63×▬ +0.00pp
NO
86.9%86.9¢1.15×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,845 · μ=76.9 · σ=176.1 · CV=2.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=220219438656875μ = 7787550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1845bp moved · peak 875bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
13.10¢ (13.10%)
▼NO mid
86.90¢ (86.90%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$127.3k
≋liquidity $
$74.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0536 · σ=0.0309 · range [0.0305, 0.1480] · R²=0.502▲ RISING +251.47%σ EXTREME 57.59%LAST 0.11950.14800.11860.08920.05990.0305μ = 0.0536max 0.1480min 0.0305dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 11.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9464 · σ=0.0309 · range [0.8520, 0.9695] · R²=0.502▼ FALLING -8.85%σ NORMAL 3.26%LAST 0.88050.96950.94010.91070.88140.8520μ = 0.9464max 0.9695min 0.8520dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 88.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0031 · σ=0.0178 · skew=3.57 (right-skewed) · kurt=13.17 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118402-1.32ppbin -1.32pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -1.32pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak15-0.26ppbin -0.26pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.26pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak50.80ppbin 0.80pp · n=5 · 33.3% peakbin 0.80pp · n=5 · 33.3% peak11.86ppbin 1.86pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 1.86pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak2.92pp3.98pp5.04pp6.10pp7.16pp18.22ppbin 8.22pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 8.22pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.77 · kurt=14.61 · near 7 / mid 15 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.71 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.49σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.83)
μ MEAN5.36¢95% CI: [4.15¢, 6.57¢]
σ STD DEV3.09ppσ² = 9.534 · CV = 57.59%
med MEDIAN4.25¢Q₁ 3.90¢ · Q₃ 5.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 11.75pp · IQR 1.45pp (1.349σ→4.17pp)
min 3.05¢Q₁ 3.90¢med 4.25¢Q₃ 5.35¢max 14.80¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.039right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.829leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.81
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.172within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.164lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.918strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.817significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.918
H = 0.918STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.172k=2-0.164k=3-0.059k=4+0.155k=5-0.0730+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.82)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.82)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID898416
SLUGwill-lewis-hamilton-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (87¢)
PRIMARY · YES13.10¢implied prob 13.10% · decimal odds 7.63×
COUNTER · NO86.90¢implied prob 86.90% · decimal odds 1.15×
13.10¢
86.90¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME127.28k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY74.17k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (87¢)|primary − counter| = 0.738 · entropy 0.560 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 13.1%NO 86.9%YES p̂13.1%H = 0.560 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES7.63×(13¢)NO1.15×(87¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.560 bits (56% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-06 00:00 UTC
174days
07hrs
44min
174.32 days·θ = 15.127 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 13.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 86.9%)
current: $0.1310 · expected return per side: $0.87 on YES hit · $0.13 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+87.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.09% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 15.127 pp/day
now174.32d left
15.127 pp/day×1.00
−25%130.74d left
17.467 pp/day×1.15
−50%87.16d left
21.393 pp/day×1.41
−75%43.58d left
30.254 pp/day×2.00
−90%17.43d left
47.836 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 8.75% · worst -1.85% · typical |Δ| 0.77%MILD BULLISH +8.55%BEST+8.75%22hWORST-1.85%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.77%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+8.55%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.04% · Σ +8.35%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +8.55%+11.40%-0.35%-0.05% · 1h-0.05% · 1h-0.05%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.30% · 3h-0.30% · 3h-0.30%3h0.55% · 4h0.55% · 4h0.55%4h0.75% · 5h0.75% · 5h0.75%5h-0.15% · 6h-0.15% · 6h-0.15%6h-0.30% · 7h-0.30% · 7h-0.30%7h0.50% · 8h0.50% · 8h0.50%8h-0.15% · 9h-0.15% · 9h-0.15%9h-0.35% · 10h-0.35% · 10h-0.35%10h0.15% · 11h0.15% · 11h0.15%11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h0.15% · 14h0.15% · 14h0.15%14h0.40% · 15h0.40% · 15h0.40%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.25% · 17h-0.25% · 17h-0.25%17h1.50% · 18h1.50% · 18h1.50%18h-0.50% · 19h-0.50% · 19h-0.50%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h0.55% · 21h0.55% · 21h0.55%21h8.75% · 22h8.75% · 22h8.75%22h★ BEST-1.85% · 23h-1.85% · 23h-1.85%23h▼ WORST-1.00% · 24h-1.00% · 24h-1.00%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+8.35%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH46% up · 46% down · 8% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 8.75% · worst -1.85% · typical |Δ| 0.769%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +8.48%FINAL+8.48%MAX DD-2.83%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+11.65%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0848 · peak 1.1165 · range [0.9965, 1.1165]1.11650.9965break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1165UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.83% · moderate0%-2.83%▼ TROUGH -2.83%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 6 total#1 -2.83%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 20-21 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 10-15 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.83%)RECOVERYongoing · 2 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0848 (8.48%) · max DD -2.83% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +16 / −3 (84% positive) · μ=23.98 · σ=21.50PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 24.51 (+0.02σ vs μ)68.1634.080.00-34.08-68.16μ = 23.9829.8629.8619.0219.0234.4034.4041.6541.6510.1910.19-14.58-14.58-9.83-9.838.098.09-16.08-16.0821.8521.8568.1668.1621.5921.5946.4846.4828.8928.8928.8928.8931.7531.7545.1445.1435.7335.7324.5124.51v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 24.510 · range [-16.08, 68.16] · μ 23.985 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=88.1795 · σ=116.9032 · range [14.9947, 363.3563] · R²=0.441▲ RISING +828.91%σ EXTREME 132.57%LAST 363.3563363.3563276.2659189.1755102.085114.9947μ = 88.1795max 363.3563min 14.9947dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 363.36% · range [14.99%, 363.36%] · μ 88.18% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.218 · σ=0.220MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.243 (-0.11σ vs μ)0.5970.2980.000-0.298-0.597μ = -0.218-0.018-0.0180.0920.092-0.132-0.132-0.079-0.079-0.225-0.225-0.383-0.383-0.454-0.454-0.181-0.181-0.055-0.055-0.051-0.051-0.158-0.1580.1380.138-0.257-0.257-0.597-0.597-0.572-0.572-0.549-0.549-0.034-0.034-0.383-0.383-0.243-0.243v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.243 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
406.5923
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.5909
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7651
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7983
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8167
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4369
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6622
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5821
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0243
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1516
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2495
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.650 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.67e-4 · top T=3.43h (17.2%) · top-3 cover 40.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)7.6e-45.7e-43.8e-41.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.05e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.05e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.52e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.52e-4 · 3.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.16e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.16e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.41e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.41e-4 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.56e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.56e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.41e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.41e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.58e-4 · 17.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.58e-4 · 17.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.68e-4 · 6.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.68e-4 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.14e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.14e-4 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.22e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.22e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.75e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.75e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.56e-4 · 12.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.56e-4 · 12.6% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 17.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.403e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3843 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 174.3 d · σ/bar 0.106pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 6.86ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1138 · n = 3843✓ n = 3843
μ per bar
+0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.106pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.52pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move174d
6.86pp
σ × √4183.741590833333
Terminal variancebinary
0.1138
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
13.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.17pp · ES₉₅ 0.22pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3843
VaR 95%
0.17pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.22pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
20.7pp
peak 6.0¢ → trough 4.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
13.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
7.634
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+663
$100 wins $663
FractionalUK
6.63 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$663.36
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 13.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.560 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.560 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.93 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.20 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
69833456690136644541052533876758499587133457040620330400923606566331654948227
NO token ID
107302425155378894910136485915807504436516647414953576160717018829314861130331
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:15:30 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:15:30 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2e524bd9c736aaf40352d643855c0c8e01668983bd0902201161b784ccca0150 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,078.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.32

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.119500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1422.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.581
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.279
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-lewis-hamilton-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1417481861.79bp0.1470009FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.32470617172.08bp0.60000064FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.74629752451.66bp0.98000081FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.1029001389.10bp0.1000007FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0031709734.74bp0.00100059FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0020479828.68bp0.00100059PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,843 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1740.49%
σ per bar = 0.013146
Mean return (annualised)
57070.17%
μ per bar = 0.000326
Sharpe (rf=0)
32.79
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
20.66%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.05 over 431 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-lewis-hamilton-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/risk · same metrics, JSON