TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “cup · world · fifa” (38 markets)
Top terms: cupworldfifasports2026win
- Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3.5¢ YES · $54.0k 24h
- Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.3¢ YES · $54.7k 24h
- Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2.1¢ YES · $48.5k 24h
- Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $2.59M 24h
- Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $1.54M 24h
- Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.6¢ YES · $1.51M 24h
- Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $120.2k 24h
- Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?7.0¢ YES · $27.1k 24h
- Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $3.19M 24h
- Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.8¢ YES · $2.49M 24h
- Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.3¢ YES · $30.6k 24h
- Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?72.5¢ YES · $33.7k 24h
- Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $818.5k 24h
- Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.6¢ YES · $40.0k 24h
- ★ Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5.1¢ YES · $2.20M 24h
- Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $1.56M 24h
- Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.9¢ YES · $28.6k 24h
- Will Iran Play in the World Cup?99.0¢ YES · $25.6k 24h
- Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $1.10M 24h
- Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4¢ YES · $1.95M 24h
- Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.7¢ YES · $3.16M 24h
- Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4.3¢ YES · $27.6k 24h
- Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5.1¢ YES · $44.5k 24h
- Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?15.5¢ YES · $26.5k 24h
- Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.3¢ YES · $32.5k 24h
- Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1.3¢ YES · $2.50M 24h
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?5.0¢ YES · $1.39M 24h
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?88.5¢ YES · $30.2k 24h
- Will Noah Okafor be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.2¢ YES · $80.2k 24h
- Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.4¢ YES · $41.6k 24h
- Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $702.0k 24h
- Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.3¢ YES · $589.5k 24h
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?16.7¢ YES · $1.65M 24h
- Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $45.4k 24h
- Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.5¢ YES · $6.40M 24h
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2.1¢ YES · $3.07M 24h
- Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.1¢ YES · $185.6k 24h
- Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?4.2¢ YES · $43.5k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.857 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.869 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.430 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.316 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.316 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.316 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.243 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.686 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-germany-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-467 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.00%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-germany-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-467/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →