TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “crude · oil · hit” (14 markets)
Top terms: crudeoilhitclendjune
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?3.1¢ YES · $50.4k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?2.1¢ YES · $47.7k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?1.3¢ YES · $28.7k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?1.8¢ YES · $82.3k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?1.3¢ YES · $51.2k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?1.1¢ YES · $34.8k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?0.9¢ YES · $68.0k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?0.5¢ YES · $58.5k 24h
- ★ Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?10.3¢ YES · $73.9k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?51.0¢ YES · $24.3k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?87.5¢ YES · $38.7k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?51.5¢ YES · $39.2k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?94.5¢ YES · $56.3k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?8.5¢ YES · $29.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -5.066 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.502 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.453 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.413 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.385 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.365 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.304 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.337 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-70-by-end-of-june-776-556-989-392-677-842-888-775-665-545-427-841 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
365.61%
max drawdown
57.29%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
28.61%
RMS drawdown
pain index
23.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
47.85%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
1.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1386
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-70-by-end-of-june-776-556-989-392-677-842-888-775-665-545-427-841/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →