TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “prime · minister · politics” (8 markets)

Top terms: primeministerpoliticsisraelethiopiabenjamin

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?3.3¢ YES · $31.6k 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?32.5¢ YES · $220.0k 24h
★ Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.3¢ YES · $5.16M 24h
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.2¢ YES · $61.2k 24h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?0.8¢ YES · $41.5k 24h
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.4¢ YES · $40.9k 24h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.4¢ YES · $25.6k 24h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.5¢ YES · $25.6k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	-7.306	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	-6.852	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	-3.640	169	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	-2.685	169	no rejection · independent
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	-2.032	169	no rejection · independent
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	-1.613	169	no rejection · independent
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	-1.464	169	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-berhanu-nega-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -61.54%

realized vol (ann.)

9.82%

max drawdown

61.54%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

19.41%

RMS drawdown

pain index

11.36%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

54.32%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.50

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.50

upside/downside

roll spread

5.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

-61.54%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%

24h change -61.54%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-berhanu-nega-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →