POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

YES · live
0.8¢
NO · live
99.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-eugen-tomac-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
38.64%
max drawdown
53.13%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
43.17%
RMS drawdown
pain index
37.99%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
53.13%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.26
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.26
upside/downside
roll spread
3.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1595
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-eugen-tomac-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH53ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.8¢
NO · live
99.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0669 · σ=0.0506 · range [0.0075, 0.1245] · R²=0.519▼ FALLING -89.04%σ EXTREME 75.65%LAST 0.00800.12450.09530.06600.03680.0075μ = 0.0669max 0.1245min 0.0075dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.80¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.8%NO 99.2%NO99.2%99.20¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.067 / 1.00 bits (7%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.8%0.8¢125.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.2%99.2¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,000 · μ=83.3 · σ=180.8 · CV=2.17BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140206412619825μ = 8382550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2000bp moved · peak 825bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
53ms
▲YES mid
0.80¢ (0.80%)
▼NO mid
99.20¢ (99.20%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$41.5k
≋liquidity $
$25.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0669 · σ=0.0506 · range [0.0075, 0.1245] · R²=0.519▼ FALLING -89.04%σ EXTREME 75.65%LAST 0.00800.12450.09530.06600.03680.0075μ = 0.0669max 0.1245min 0.0075dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.80¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9331 · σ=0.0506 · range [0.8755, 0.9925] · R²=0.520▲ RISING +7.01%σ HIGH 5.42%LAST 0.99200.99250.96330.93400.90470.8755μ = 0.9331max 0.9925min 0.8755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.20¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0024 · σ=0.0178 · skew=-3.10 (left-skewed) · kurt=10.29 (leptokurtic (fat tails))191410501-7.70ppbin -7.70pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -7.70pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak-6.59pp-5.49pp-4.38pp1-3.28ppbin -3.28pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -3.28pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak-2.17pp-1.07pp190.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakbin 0.04pp · n=19 · 100.0% peak21.14ppbin 1.14pp · n=2 · 10.5% peakbin 1.14pp · n=2 · 10.5% peak12.25ppbin 2.25pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 2.25pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.88 · kurt=9.60 · near 8 / mid 13 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.77 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.08σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.86)
μ MEAN6.69¢95% CI: [4.71¢, 8.68¢]
σ STD DEV5.06ppσ² = 25.630 · CV = 75.65%
med MEDIAN7.30¢Q₁ 0.80¢ · Q₃ 11.90¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 11.70pp · IQR 11.10pp (1.349σ→6.83pp)
min 0.75¢Q₁ 0.80¢med 7.30¢Q₃ 11.90¢max 12.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.163approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.862platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.62
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.31
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.229within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.042lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.918strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.986significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.918
H = 0.918STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.229k=2-0.042k=3+0.009k=4+0.005k=5-0.0120+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.99)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.99)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2166699
SLUGwill-eugen-tomac-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.80¢implied prob 0.80% · decimal odds 125.00×
COUNTER · NO99.20¢implied prob 99.20% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.80¢
99.20¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME41.51k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY25.92k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.984 · entropy 0.067 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.8%NO 99.2%YES p̂0.8%H = 0.067 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES125.00×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.067 bits (7% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.80% · worst -8.25% · typical |Δ| 0.83%MILD BEARISH -6.50%BEST+2.80%3hWORST-8.25%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.83%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-6.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.63% · Σ +4.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -1.37% · Σ -10.95%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -6.50%+5.15%-6.55%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.40% · 2h-0.40% · 2h-0.40%2h2.80% · 3h2.80% · 3h2.80%3h★ BEST0.55% · 4h0.55% · 4h0.55%4h1.55% · 5h1.55% · 5h1.55%5h0.15% · 6h0.15% · 6h0.15%6h-0.25% · 7h-0.25% · 7h-0.25%7h0.30% · 8h0.30% · 8h0.30%8h0.10% · 9h0.10% · 9h0.10%9h-0.15% · 10h-0.15% · 10h-0.15%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h-3.45% · 14h-3.45% · 14h-3.45%14h-8.25% · 15h-8.25% · 15h-8.25%15h▼ WORST0.70% · 16h0.70% · 16h0.70%16h-0.15% · 17h-0.15% · 17h-0.15%17h-0.35% · 18h-0.35% · 18h-0.35%18h-0.20% · 19h-0.20% · 19h-0.20%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+4.40%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 38% down · 21% flat
10 up bars · 9 down · best 2.80% · worst -8.25% · typical |Δ| 0.833%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -6.74%FINAL-6.74%MAX DD-11.42%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.23%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9326 · peak 1.0523 · range [0.9321, 1.0523]1.05230.9321break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0523UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -11.42% · significant0%-11.42%▼ TROUGH -11.42%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -11.42%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.40%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.25%bar 8-8 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -11.42%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 0.9326 (-6.74%) · max DD -11.42% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −10 (37% positive) · μ=-6.60 · σ=48.55MIXED EDGELAST -26.58 (-0.41σ vs μ)75.9637.980.00-37.98-75.96μ = -6.6060.7760.7755.8155.8170.4070.4060.2660.2640.6540.657.647.640.000.0049.1149.11-32.01-32.01-51.64-51.64-46.39-46.39-46.96-46.96-49.25-49.25-53.67-53.67-37.98-37.980.000.00-75.96-75.96-49.66-49.66-26.58-26.58v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -26.579 · range [-75.96, 70.40] · μ -6.603 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=140.0789 · σ=133.7016 · range [8.2395, 330.4708] · R²=0.015▼ FALLING -92.62%σ EXTREME 95.45%LAST 8.2395330.4708249.9130169.355188.79738.2395μ = 140.0789max 330.4708min 8.2395dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 8.24% · range [8.24%, 330.47%] · μ 140.08% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-0.023 · σ=0.238CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.016 (+0.16σ vs μ)0.4330.2170.000-0.217-0.433μ = -0.023-0.363-0.363-0.367-0.3670.0140.0140.0740.074-0.014-0.014-0.433-0.433-0.289-0.2890.1260.126-0.167-0.1670.3000.300-0.026-0.026-0.013-0.013-0.048-0.0480.0550.055-0.133-0.1330.0260.0260.4330.4330.3760.3760.0160.016v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.016 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
187.9049
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.4752
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9154
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.5614
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8718
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2243
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8225
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6102
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0217
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.3022
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1929
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.396 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.75e-4 · top T=24.00h (21.8%) · top-3 cover 47.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.8e-47.4e-44.9e-42.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.84e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.84e-4 · 21.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.26e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.26e-4 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.42e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.42e-4 · 14.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.26e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.26e-4 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.14e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.14e-4 · 11.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.00e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.00e-4 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.45e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.45e-4 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.38e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.38e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.52e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.52e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.56e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.56e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.36e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.36e-4 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.04e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.04e-6 · 0.2% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 21.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.506e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1595 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.029pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0079 · n = 1595✓ n = 1595
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.029pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.14pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.07pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0079
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1595
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
53.1pp
peak 1.6¢ → trough 0.8¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
125.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+12400
$100 wins $12400
FractionalUK
124.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$12400.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.067 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.067 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
73073237485169728419225645332288899509584114415364903557818008231922464600397
NO token ID
91429064969147484432202052123563396706062436201354137535081148069245789055905
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:17:47 UTC
Snapshot age
53ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:17:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6be21adb31eca5fe8fd71e8dcafb5d1b59ea53679560d931545c1ae7306e01b8 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.008000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
12500.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.808
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.666
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-eugen-tomac-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.102748118434.47bp0.38000019FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.384211470263.64bp0.66000042FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.791526979407.43bp0.98000088FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0012908387.68bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0012908387.68bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0012908387.68bp0.0010003PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,595 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3842.15%
σ per bar = 0.029019
Mean return (annualised)
41207.00%
μ per bar = 0.000235
Sharpe (rf=0)
10.72
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
53.13%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 581 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-eugen-tomac-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-romania/risk · same metrics, JSON