TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “strait · hormuz · 30” (6 markets)

Top terms: straithormuz30transitshipsday

★ Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?94.5¢ YES · $99.4k 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?44.0¢ YES · $23.6k 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?7.0¢ YES · $48.9k 24h
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?4.3¢ YES · $21.9k 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?4.3¢ YES · $71.4k 24h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?100.0¢ YES · $909.1k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (5 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	-3.508	168	▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	-2.320	168	no rejection · independent
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	-2.312	168	no rejection · independent
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	-2.232	168	no rejection · independent
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	-1.253	168	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 13s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

83.82%

max drawdown

1.06%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.37%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.15%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.06%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.25

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.25

upside/downside

roll spread

0.1 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

812

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →