TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “agreement · ceasefire · announces” (13 markets)
Top terms: agreementceasefireannouncesextensioniranus
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?2.3¢ YES · $181.3k 24h
- Trump out as President by June 30?0.7¢ YES · $184.6k 24h
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?24.0¢ YES · $47.3k 24h
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?68.0¢ YES · $39.9k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?81.5¢ YES · $161.0k 24h
- ★ US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?0.1¢ YES · $1.05M 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?3.9¢ YES · $2.87M 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 1411.5¢ YES · $850.3k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?23.5¢ YES · $548.9k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?38.0¢ YES · $92.7k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?52.0¢ YES · $45.6k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?58.0¢ YES · $75.6k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?71.5¢ YES · $369.9k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.933 | 68 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.641 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.395 | 134 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.364 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.289 | 66 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.251 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -3.182 | 66 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.280 | 68 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-12-2482 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -87.50%
realized vol (ann.)
10.77%
max drawdown
90.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
67.08%
RMS drawdown
pain index
60.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
90.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.44
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.44
upside/downside
roll spread
22.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-87.50%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -87.50%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-12-2482/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →