POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US ANNOUNCES NEW IRAN AGREEMENT/CEASEFIRE EXTENSION BY...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?

YES · live
62.5¢
NO · live
37.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-19 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
544.16%
max drawdown
33.73%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
15.57%
RMS drawdown
pain index
12.79%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
32.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-19/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
62.5¢
NO · live
37.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.6818 · σ=0.0574 · range [0.5600, 0.8300] · R²=0.045▼ FALLING -8.00%σ HIGH 8.41%LAST 0.57500.83000.76250.69500.62750.5600μ = 0.6818max 0.8300min 0.5600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 57.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 62.5%NO 37.5%YES62.5%62.50¢ · odds 1/1.60
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.954 / 1.00 bits (95%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
62.5%62.5¢1.60×▬ +0.00pp
NO
37.5%37.5¢2.67×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=8,300 · μ=345.8 · σ=388.7 · CV=1.12BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1504128251,2371,650μ = 3461,65050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 8300bp moved · peak 1650bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7ms
▲YES mid
62.50¢ (62.50%)
▼NO mid
37.50¢ (37.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$76.0k
≋liquidity $
$42.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6818 · σ=0.0574 · range [0.5600, 0.8300] · R²=0.045▼ FALLING -8.00%σ HIGH 8.41%LAST 0.57500.83000.76250.69500.62750.5600μ = 0.6818max 0.8300min 0.5600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 57.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3182 · σ=0.0574 · range [0.1700, 0.4400] · R²=0.045▲ RISING +13.33%σ EXTREME 18.03%LAST 0.42500.44000.37250.30500.23750.1700μ = 0.3182max 0.4400min 0.1700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 42.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0029 · σ=0.0483 · skew=0.80 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.49 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975203-8.20ppbin -8.20pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -8.20pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak2-5.60ppbin -5.60pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -5.60pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak1-3.00ppbin -3.00pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -3.00pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak9-0.40ppbin -0.40pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -0.40pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak72.20ppbin 2.20pp · n=7 · 77.8% peakbin 2.20pp · n=7 · 77.8% peak14.80ppbin 4.80pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 4.80pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak7.40pp10.00pp12.60pp115.20ppbin 15.20pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 15.20pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.92 · kurt=2.80 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN68.18¢95% CI: [65.93¢, 70.43¢]
σ STD DEV5.74ppσ² = 32.914 · CV = 8.41%
med MEDIAN68.50¢Q₁ 65.50¢ · Q₃ 72.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 27.00pp · IQR 6.50pp (1.349σ→7.74pp)
min 56.00¢Q₁ 65.50¢med 68.50¢Q₃ 72.00¢max 83.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.084approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.348mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.06
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.19
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.71
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.293within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.199lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.923strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.036fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.923
H = 0.923STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.293k=2+0.199k=3-0.010k=4-0.187k=5+0.1680+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.04)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.04)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2508402
SLUGus-announces-new…n-by-june-19
CATEGORYUS announces new…nsion by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (63¢)
PRIMARY · YES62.50¢implied prob 62.50% · decimal odds 1.60×
COUNTER · NO37.50¢implied prob 37.50% · decimal odds 2.67×
62.50¢
37.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME75.99k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY42.45k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (63¢)|primary − counter| = 0.250 · entropy 0.954 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 62.5%NO 37.5%YES p̂62.5%H = 0.954 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.60×(63¢)NO2.67×(38¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.954 bits (95% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-19 00:00 UTC
4days
10hrs
22min
4.43 days·θ = 28.106 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 62.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 37.5%)
current: $0.6250 · expected return per side: $0.38 on YES hit · $0.63 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=5.74% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 28.106 pp/day
now4.43d left
28.106 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.32d left
32.454 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.22d left
39.748 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.11d left
56.212 pp/day×2.00
−90%10.64h left
88.879 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 16.50% · worst -9.50% · typical |Δ| 3.46%MILD BEARISH -5.00%BEST+16.50%15hWORST-9.50%23hTYPICAL |Δ|3.46%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-5.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +1.07% · Σ +7.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +1.63% · Σ +13.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -3.37% · Σ -27.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -5.00%+20.50%-6.50%6.00% · 1h6.00% · 1h6.00%1h3.00% · 2h3.00% · 2h3.00%2h1.00% · 3h1.00% · 3h1.00%3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h-1.00% · 5h-1.00% · 5h-1.00%5h-4.50% · 6h-4.50% · 6h-4.50%6h3.50% · 7h3.50% · 7h3.50%7h-1.00% · 8h-1.00% · 8h-1.00%8h-3.00% · 9h-3.00% · 9h-3.00%9h1.50% · 10h1.50% · 10h1.50%10h-4.50% · 11h-4.50% · 11h-4.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h3.00% · 13h3.00% · 13h3.00%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h16.50% · 15h16.50% · 15h16.50%15h★ BEST-9.00% · 16h-9.00% · 16h-9.00%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h-1.50% · 19h-1.50% · 19h-1.50%19h-1.50% · 20h-1.50% · 20h-1.50%20h-7.50% · 21h-7.50% · 21h-7.50%21h2.50% · 22h2.50% · 22h2.50%22h-9.50% · 23h-9.50% · 23h-9.50%23h▼ WORST1.50% · 24h1.50% · 24h1.50%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+13.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH42% up · 50% down · 8% flat
10 up bars · 12 down · best 16.50% · worst -9.50% · typical |Δ| 3.458%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -7.79%FINAL-7.79%MAX DD-24.62%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+20.52%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9221 · peak 1.2052 · range [0.9085, 1.2052]1.20520.9085break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2052UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -24.62% · severe0%-24.62%▼ TROUGH -24.62%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -24.62%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -9.37%bar 5-15 · 11 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -24.62%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9221 (-7.79%) · max DD -24.62% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-14.19 · σ=31.84MIXED EDGELAST -51.63 (-1.18σ vs μ)80.3840.190.00-40.19-80.38μ = -14.1917.3317.337.947.94-14.80-14.80-37.42-37.42-24.11-24.11-37.86-37.86-18.68-18.68-22.39-22.39-13.84-13.8437.0737.0711.7011.7020.7420.7419.7419.7411.1911.197.407.40-80.38-80.38-39.90-39.90-61.71-61.71-51.63-51.63v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -51.632 · range [-80.38, 37.07] · μ -14.191 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=455.1944 · σ=226.0506 · range [246.5948, 811.3205] · R²=0.227▲ RISING +34.24%σ EXTREME 49.66%LAST 452.4290811.3205670.1391528.9577387.7762246.5948μ = 455.1944max 811.3205min 246.5948dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 452.43% · range [246.59%, 811.32%] · μ 455.19% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.354 · σ=0.246MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.796 (-1.80σ vs μ)0.7960.3980.000-0.398-0.796μ = -0.3540.3610.361-0.163-0.163-0.460-0.460-0.427-0.427-0.485-0.485-0.514-0.514-0.379-0.379-0.327-0.327-0.250-0.250-0.009-0.009-0.430-0.430-0.474-0.474-0.452-0.452-0.421-0.421-0.390-0.390-0.113-0.113-0.400-0.400-0.592-0.592-0.796-0.796v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.796 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
18.1430
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.4892
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1734
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2236
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4007
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6887
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1334
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4732
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9811
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3266
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.701 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.66e-3 · top T=2.40h (31.8%) · top-3 cover 58.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-27.6e-35.1e-32.5e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.75e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.75e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.64e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.64e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.58e-4 · 1.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.58e-4 · 1.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.74e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.74e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.68e-4 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.68e-4 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.71e-4 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.71e-4 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.29e-3 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.29e-3 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.44e-3 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.44e-3 · 4.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.75e-3 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.75e-3 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.02e-2 · 31.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.02e-2 · 31.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.02e-3 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.02e-3 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.04e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.04e-4 · 1.6% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=12.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 31.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.192e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3322 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 4.4 d · σ/bar 0.357pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.69ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2344 · n = 3322✓ n = 3322
μ per bar
-0.003pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.357pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.75pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move4d
3.69pp
σ × √106.37936333333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.2344
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
62.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.59pp · ES₉₅ 0.74pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.003pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3322
VaR 95%
0.59pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.74pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
33.7pp
peak 83.0¢ → trough 55.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
62.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.600
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-167
risk $167 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.60 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$60.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 62.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.954 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.954 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.68 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.42 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
62741828283494013771696660552843972936985443756326167209820155236970499349322
NO token ID
35255614045563229963180516015194282744110178347322222822148196638741665749137
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:37:14 UTC
Snapshot age
7ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:37:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a68cdca7c6a68a7bf4fd6338a876da775b3e125e98d997b2767878b8568f0083 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?13¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,273HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.575000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
173.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.095
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.293
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-19/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.627573914.31bp0.6500008FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.7133722406.48bp0.78000021FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8749675216.82bp0.96000039FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.525335863.74bp0.5000007FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3903773210.84bp0.30000022FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1013488237.42bp0.01000050PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,322 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
693.70%
σ per bar = 0.005240
Mean return (annualised)
-7100.49%
μ per bar = -0.000041
Sharpe (rf=0)
-10.24
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
33.73%
peak 0.83 → trough 0.55 over 1576 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-19/risk · same metrics, JSON