POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US ANNOUNCES NEW IRAN AGREEMENT/CEASEFIRE EXTENSION BY...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

YES · live
80.5¢
NO · live
19.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-july-31-772 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -7.47%
realized vol (ann.)
278.89%
max drawdown
13.11%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
6.13%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.20%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
12.24%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.62
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.62
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-7.47%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -7.47%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-july-31-772/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
80.5¢
NO · live
19.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8700 · σ=0.0270 · range [0.8100, 0.9150] · R²=0.290▼ FALLING -5.81%σ NORMAL 3.10%LAST 0.81000.91500.88880.86250.83630.8100μ = 0.8700max 0.9150min 0.8100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 81.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 80.5%NO 19.5%YES80.5%80.50¢ · odds 1/1.24
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.712 / 1.00 bits (71%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
80.5%80.5¢1.24×▬ +0.00pp
NO
19.5%19.5¢5.13×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=3,900 · μ=162.5 · σ=154.1 · CV=0.95BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=130138275413550μ = 16355050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 3900bp moved · peak 550bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
80.50¢ (80.50%)
▼NO mid
19.50¢ (19.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$158.9k
≋liquidity $
$80.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8700 · σ=0.0270 · range [0.8100, 0.9150] · R²=0.290▼ FALLING -5.81%σ NORMAL 3.10%LAST 0.81000.91500.88880.86250.83630.8100μ = 0.8700max 0.9150min 0.8100dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 81.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1300 · σ=0.0270 · range [0.0850, 0.1900] · R²=0.290▲ RISING +35.71%σ EXTREME 20.74%LAST 0.19000.19000.16380.13750.11130.0850μ = 0.1300max 0.1900min 0.0850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.29μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 19.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0016 · σ=0.0208 · skew=-0.14 (symmetric) · kurt=0.18 (mesokurtic)864201-5.03ppbin -5.03pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -5.03pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak1-4.08ppbin -4.08pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -4.08pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-3.13pp2-2.18ppbin -2.18pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin -2.18pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak4-1.23ppbin -1.23pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -1.23pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak8-0.28ppbin -0.28pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -0.28pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak20.68ppbin 0.68pp · n=2 · 25.0% peakbin 0.68pp · n=2 · 25.0% peak31.63ppbin 1.63pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 1.63pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak2.58pp33.53ppbin 3.53pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin 3.53pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.05 · kurt=0.30 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.89)
μ MEAN87.00¢95% CI: [85.94¢, 88.06¢]
σ STD DEV2.70ppσ² = 7.271 · CV = 3.10%
med MEDIAN87.50¢Q₁ 86.00¢ · Q₃ 89.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 10.50pp · IQR 3.00pp (1.349σ→3.64pp)
min 81.00¢Q₁ 86.00¢med 87.50¢Q₃ 89.00¢max 91.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.894left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.027mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.21
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.89
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.308within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.097lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.736strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.065significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.736
H = 0.736STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.308k=2-0.097k=3+0.116k=4+0.082k=5-0.2660+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.07)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.78very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.07)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2420738
SLUGus-announces-new…-july-31-772
CATEGORYUS announces new…nsion by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (81¢)
PRIMARY · YES80.50¢implied prob 80.50% · decimal odds 1.24×
COUNTER · NO19.50¢implied prob 19.50% · decimal odds 5.13×
80.50¢
19.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME158.85k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY80.14k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (81¢)|primary − counter| = 0.610 · entropy 0.712 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 80.5%NO 19.5%YES p̂80.5%H = 0.712 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.24×(81¢)NO5.13×(20¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.712 bits (71% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
15days
08hrs
54min
15.37 days·θ = 13.210 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 80.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 19.5%)
current: $0.8050 · expected return per side: $0.19 on YES hit · $0.81 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.70% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 13.210 pp/day
now15.37d left
13.210 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.53d left
15.253 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.69d left
18.682 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.84d left
26.420 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.54d left
41.773 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.00% · worst -5.50% · typical |Δ| 1.63%BEARISH SESSION -5.00%BEST+4.00%1hWORST-5.50%14hTYPICAL |Δ|1.63%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-5.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.43% · Σ +3.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.38% · Σ -3.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.56% · Σ -4.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -5.00%+5.50%-5.00%4.00% · 1h4.00% · 1h4.00%1h★ BEST-2.50% · 2h-2.50% · 2h-2.50%2h1.50% · 3h1.50% · 3h1.50%3h-2.00% · 4h-2.00% · 4h-2.00%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h1.50% · 7h1.50% · 7h1.50%7h-1.50% · 8h-1.50% · 8h-1.50%8h1.50% · 9h1.50% · 9h1.50%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-1.50% · 11h-1.50% · 11h-1.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h4.00% · 13h4.00% · 13h4.00%13h-5.50% · 14h-5.50% · 14h-5.50%14h▼ WORST0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h3.50% · 16h3.50% · 16h3.50%16h-0.50% · 17h-0.50% · 17h-0.50%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-1.50% · 19h-1.50% · 19h-1.50%19h-0.50% · 20h-0.50% · 20h-0.50%20h-4.00% · 21h-4.00% · 21h-4.00%21h-1.50% · 22h-1.50% · 22h-1.50%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+3.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH33% up · 50% down · 17% flat
8 up bars · 12 down · best 4.00% · worst -5.50% · typical |Δ| 1.625%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.44%FINAL-5.44%MAX DD-10.26%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.37%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9456 · peak 1.0537 · range [0.9456, 1.0537]1.05370.9456break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0537UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -10.26% · significant0%-10.26%▼ TROUGH -10.26%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -10.26%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -3.06%bar 3-13 · 11 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -10.26%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9456 (-5.44%) · max DD -10.26% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −8 (37% positive) · μ=-12.93 · σ=33.48MIXED EDGELAST -86.81 (-2.21σ vs μ)86.8143.400.00-43.40-86.81μ = -12.939.829.82-9.06-9.060.000.000.000.0019.9519.950.000.000.000.0018.5018.50-7.34-7.34-15.18-15.184.474.479.139.136.856.85-21.44-21.449.069.06-19.27-19.27-86.81-86.81-77.57-77.57-86.81-86.81v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -86.807 · range [-86.81, 19.95] · μ -12.930 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=202.6837 · σ=77.9376 · range [109.7497, 326.4659] · R²=0.024▼ FALLING -39.65%σ EXTREME 38.45%LAST 134.5511326.4659272.2869218.1078163.9288109.7497μ = 202.6837max 326.4659min 109.7497dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 134.55% · range [109.75%, 326.47%] · μ 202.68% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.312 · σ=0.207MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.099 (+1.03σ vs μ)0.7360.3680.000-0.368-0.736μ = -0.312-0.566-0.566-0.406-0.406-0.409-0.409-0.341-0.341-0.736-0.736-0.395-0.395-0.553-0.553-0.053-0.053-0.397-0.397-0.453-0.453-0.339-0.339-0.386-0.386-0.397-0.397-0.005-0.005-0.086-0.086-0.017-0.017-0.099-0.099-0.192-0.192-0.099-0.099v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.099 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4682
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7913
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.7822
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3277
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5731
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4985
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6716
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5018
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4319
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0634
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6351
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1020
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.502 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.26e-4 · top T=3.00h (19.0%) · top-3 cover 49.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.2e-39.0e-46.0e-43.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.49e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.49e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.70e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.70e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.50e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.50e-4 · 7.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.97e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.97e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.02e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.02e-4 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.42e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.42e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.13e-4 · 14.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.13e-4 · 14.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.20e-3 · 19.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.20e-3 · 19.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.75e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.75e-5 · 0.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.01e-3 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.01e-3 · 15.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.12e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.12e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.38e-4 · 14.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 9.38e-4 · 14.8% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 19.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.317e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3615 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.4 d · σ/bar 0.174pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.34ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1570 · n = 3615✓ n = 3615
μ per bar
-0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.174pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.85pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move15d
3.34pp
σ × √368.90255972222224
Terminal variancebinary
0.1570
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
80.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.29pp · ES₉₅ 0.36pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3615
VaR 95%
0.29pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.36pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
13.1pp
peak 91.5¢ → trough 79.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
80.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.242
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-413
risk $413 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.24 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$24.22
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 80.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.712 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.712 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.31 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.36 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
6550043502014372041867516070237061384047954970509273962160250531333275968560
NO token ID
106892870638715975142746692736589361787139017988063817106583081416191762012956
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:05:50 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:05:50 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e687fb1dd74e873f5e4fe366ababa3bdcab0bd6f204ab75f0d7a00b5cbcccb3e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.6¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,108HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.51

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.815000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
122.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.923
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.042
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-july-31-772/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.824044110.97bp0.8400003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.859491545.91bp0.8700006FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9222101315.46bp0.99000016PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.806374105.84bp0.8000002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.768361572.26bp0.7500007FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0672939174.31bp0.01000058PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,615 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
268.42%
σ per bar = 0.002027
Mean return (annualised)
-3766.11%
μ per bar = -0.000021
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.03
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.11%
peak 0.92 → trough 0.80 over 1808 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-july-31-772/risk · same metrics, JSON