TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · closes · israel” (7 markets)

Top terms: airspaceclosesisraelwithdrawslebanoniran

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?-4.555112▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?-3.843112▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?-3.824112▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?-3.824112▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?-3.783112▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?-3.772112▲ cointegrated · pair candidate

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · israel-closes-its-airspace-by-july-31 · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
112.12%
max drawdown
11.43%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.70%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.45%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.96%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.89
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.89
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
803
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-israel-closes-its-airspace-by-july-31/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →