TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “israel · airspace · closes” (11 markets)
Top terms: israelairspaceclosespermanentpeacedeal
- ★ Israel closes its airspace by July 15?12.5¢ YES · $43.9k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?15.5¢ YES · $118.4k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?6.0¢ YES · $121.0k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?13.5¢ YES · $38.7k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?1.1¢ YES · $179.5k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?26.0¢ YES · $144.7k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?9.3¢ YES · $270.3k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?10.5¢ YES · $24.4k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.3¢ YES · $106.1k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?100.0¢ YES · $101.0k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?100.0¢ YES · $193.1k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.453 | 114 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.850 | 114 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.742 | 114 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.732 | 114 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.709 | 114 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.698 | 114 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.671 | 114 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.642 | 114 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · israel-closes-its-airspace-by-july-15 · fresh · feed 12s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1042
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-israel-closes-its-airspace-by-july-15/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →