TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “sweden · netherlands · exact” (28 markets)
Top terms: swedennetherlandsexactscoremarketsspread
- Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?23.5¢ YES · $265.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden?4.5¢ YES · $16.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden?10.5¢ YES · $22.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden?11.5¢ YES · $30.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden?5.5¢ YES · $34.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?9.5¢ YES · $20.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?11.5¢ YES · $47.3k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?6.5¢ YES · $24.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden?2.1¢ YES · $17.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden?6.5¢ YES · $30.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?4.5¢ YES · $36.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden?1.8¢ YES · $35.6k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.539.5¢ YES · $87.2k 24h
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?57.5¢ YES · $1.21M 24h
- Spread: Sweden (-1.5)6.8¢ YES · $21.4k 24h
- Spread: Sweden (-2.5)1.9¢ YES · $21.6k 24h
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)32.5¢ YES · $85.1k 24h
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)14.5¢ YES · $29.1k 24h
- Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?20.5¢ YES · $320.8k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.568.5¢ YES · $48.0k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.530.5¢ YES · $27.7k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.595.5¢ YES · $32.5k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.581.5¢ YES · $169.1k 24h
- ★ Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.558.5¢ YES · $435.8k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.535.5¢ YES · $102.3k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.518.5¢ YES · $46.8k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.58.5¢ YES · $51.0k 24h
- Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?6.5¢ YES · $17.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.608 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.092 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.788 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.235 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -0.093 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| 0.454 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| 0.793 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| 1.096 | 168 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-total-2pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
802
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-total-2pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →