TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “sweden · netherlands · exact” (28 markets)
Top terms: swedennetherlandsexactscoremarketsspread
- Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?23.5¢ YES · $289.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden?4.5¢ YES · $31.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden?5.5¢ YES · $20.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden?10.5¢ YES · $26.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden?11.5¢ YES · $34.9k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden?5.5¢ YES · $36.6k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden?9.5¢ YES · $24.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden?11.5¢ YES · $58.5k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden?6.5¢ YES · $27.4k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden?2.5¢ YES · $23.1k 24h
- ★ Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden?7.5¢ YES · $38.2k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?4.9¢ YES · $63.8k 24h
- Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden?2.1¢ YES · $49.3k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.539.5¢ YES · $87.0k 24h
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?56.5¢ YES · $1.47M 24h
- Spread: Sweden (-1.5)7.0¢ YES · $41.3k 24h
- Spread: Sweden (-2.5)1.9¢ YES · $21.8k 24h
- Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)32.5¢ YES · $96.6k 24h
- Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)14.5¢ YES · $29.8k 24h
- Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?20.5¢ YES · $406.1k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.568.5¢ YES · $60.9k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.530.5¢ YES · $34.0k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.595.5¢ YES · $36.3k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.581.5¢ YES · $187.3k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.558.5¢ YES · $449.1k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.536.5¢ YES · $103.1k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.518.5¢ YES · $47.5k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.58.6¢ YES · $20.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.904 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.312 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -6.179 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.589 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.981 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.763 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.836 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.825 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-1 · fresh · feed 5s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
41.64%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
3.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1011
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-1/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →