TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “ecuador · cura · ao” (12 markets)

Top terms: ecuadorcuraaomarketsspreadboth

Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score31.5¢ YES · $20.8k 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?9.5¢ YES · $97.5k 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?86.5¢ YES · $291.8k 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?4.0¢ YES · $435.7k 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)67.5¢ YES · $55.5k 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)43.5¢ YES · $75.9k 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)23.5¢ YES · $27.2k 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.533.5¢ YES · $40.2k 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.561.5¢ YES · $46.6k 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.538.5¢ YES · $55.7k 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score57.5¢ YES · $59.7k 24h
★ Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score60.5¢ YES · $382.8k 24h

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peer	t-stat	n	Verdict
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	-2.154	65	no rejection · independent
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5	-0.847	168	no rejection · independent
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	0.158	168	no rejection · independent
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	0.693	168	no rejection · independent
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	0.924	168	no rejection · independent
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	0.973	168	no rejection · independent
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	0.990	168	no rejection · independent
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)	1.022	168	no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-btts · fresh · feed 3s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

58.63%

max drawdown

1.63%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.86%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.46%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

1.63%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.00

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.00

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

1021

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-btts/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →