TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Spread: Spain (-1.5)

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “spain · cabo · verde” (8 markets)

Top terms: spaincaboverdemarketsspread06

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?-4.028169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?-3.963169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Spread: Spain (-2.5)-3.872169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5-3.706169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?-3.618169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5-3.432169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Spread: Spain (-3.5)-3.031100no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-spread-home-1pt5 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
642
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-spread-home-1pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →