TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “spain · cabo · verde” (19 markets)
Top terms: spaincaboverdemarketsspreadscore
- ★ Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score32.5¢ YES · $48.9k 24h
- Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?2.5¢ YES · $886.0k 24h
- Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?6.3¢ YES · $305.4k 24h
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?91.5¢ YES · $2.19M 24h
- Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?7.5¢ YES · $31.9k 24h
- Spain leading at halftime?75.5¢ YES · $92.8k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-1.5)77.5¢ YES · $291.4k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-2.5)54.5¢ YES · $1.52M 24h
- Spread: Spain (-3.5)33.5¢ YES · $193.6k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-4.5)18.5¢ YES · $25.4k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.532.5¢ YES · $62.8k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.563.5¢ YES · $35.4k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.540.5¢ YES · $24.1k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.598.0¢ YES · $35.3k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.589.5¢ YES · $73.2k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.571.5¢ YES · $95.1k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.548.5¢ YES · $1.58M 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.530.5¢ YES · $93.2k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.516.5¢ YES · $89.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.734 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.634 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.570 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.566 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.503 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.469 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.342 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.044 | 105 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-btts · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
45.11%
max drawdown
2.99%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.58%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
862
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-btts/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →