TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “ecuador · cura · ao” (12 markets)
Top terms: ecuadorcuraaomarketsspreadboth
- Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score31.5¢ YES · $20.8k 24h
- ★ Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?9.5¢ YES · $97.5k 24h
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?86.5¢ YES · $291.8k 24h
- Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?4.0¢ YES · $435.7k 24h
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)67.5¢ YES · $55.5k 24h
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)43.5¢ YES · $75.9k 24h
- Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)23.5¢ YES · $27.2k 24h
- Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.533.5¢ YES · $40.2k 24h
- Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.561.5¢ YES · $46.6k 24h
- Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.538.5¢ YES · $55.7k 24h
- Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score57.5¢ YES · $59.7k 24h
- Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score60.5¢ YES · $382.8k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.483 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.220 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.512 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.072 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.958 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.895 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.429 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.265 | 65 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-draw · fresh · feed 10s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →