POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IEM COLOGNE MAJOR 2026 WINNER
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
39.0¢
61.0¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-vitality-win-iem-cologne-major-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 2.63%
realized vol (ann.)
44.41%
max drawdown
2.53%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.32%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.75
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.75
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
2.63%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +2.63%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-vitality-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
39.0¢
NO · live
61.0¢
25 ticks · last 39.50¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.965 / 1.00 bits (96%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES39.0%39.0¢2.56×▬ +0.00pp
NO61.0%61.0¢1.64×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 1550bp moved · peak 350bp · n=24 ticks
7ms
39.00¢ (39.00%)
61.00¢ (61.00%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$57.7k
$100.2k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 39.50¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 60.50¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.28)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.596left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.275leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.329MEAN-REVERTING
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
39.00¢
61.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES2.56×(39¢)NO1.64×(61¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.965 bits (96% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
6days
07hrs
52min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.3900 · expected return per side: $0.61 on YES hit · $0.39 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.499 pp/day
now6.33d left5.499 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.75d left6.350 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.16d left7.777 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.58d left10.998 pp/day×2.00
−90%15.19h left17.390 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
7 up bars · 7 down · best 3.50% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.646%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0446 (4.46%) · max DD -2.49% · time-under-water 21/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 0.000 · range [-60.42, 34.94] · μ 4.093 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 29.60% · range [24.17%, 146.25%] · μ 81.50% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.500 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
24.6997
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
3.7215
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5924
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
REJECT H₀***H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-5.5235
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.5563
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5780
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.4712
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0481
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-1.8107
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0702
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 22.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.300e-3
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3818 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 6.3 d · σ/bar 0.070pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.86ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2379 · n = 3818✓ n = 3818
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.070pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.34pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move6d
0.86pp
σ × √151.87822805555555
Terminal variancebinary
0.2379
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
39.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.11pp · ES₉₅ 0.14pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3818
VaR 95%
0.11pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.14pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
7.2pp
peak 41.5¢ → trough 38.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
39.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.564
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+156
$100 wins $156
FractionalUK
1.56 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$156.41
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.965 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.965 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.36 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.71 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
20778198929859293228205178051767348056152880383764093118045434446806734631259- NO token ID
66614458993786832887123083891931113155187770519442187469096276009689064473734- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 16:07:18 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 7ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 16:07:18 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
25424c9d1f4acd85f7f099fb139048df6d02c2a6339c051d2c62a3a1581bd633· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in IEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.395000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
253.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.873
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.650
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-vitality-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.400604 | 141.88bp | 0.410000 | 2 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.507925 | 2858.85bp | 0.550000 | 14 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.711692 | 8017.52bp | 0.780000 | 32 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.390000 | 126.58bp | 0.390000 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.318342 | 1940.71bp | 0.130000 | 16 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.144426 | 6343.65bp | 0.010000 | 19 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 3,818 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
232.86%
σ per bar = 0.001759
Mean return (annualised)
1192.82%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
5.12
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.23%
peak 0.41 → trough 0.39 over 600 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-vitality-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON