POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHERE WILL THE NEXT US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING HAPPEN?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

YES · live
13.6¢
NO · live
86.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-861 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
122.77%
max drawdown
19.17%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.99%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
17.17%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.75
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.75
upside/downside
roll spread
1.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-861/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH358ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
13.6¢
NO · live
86.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1510 · σ=0.0390 · range [0.0760, 0.2595] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +79.61%σ EXTREME 25.83%LAST 0.13650.25950.21360.16780.12190.0760μ = 0.1510max 0.2595min 0.0760dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 13.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 13.6%NO 86.4%NO86.4%86.40¢ · odds 1/1.16
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.574 / 1.00 bits (57%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
13.6%13.6¢7.35×▬ +0.00pp
NO
86.4%86.4¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,275 · μ=178.1 · σ=261.4 · CV=1.47BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=702585157731,030μ = 1781,03050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4275bp moved · peak 1030bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
358ms
▲YES mid
13.60¢ (13.60%)
▼NO mid
86.40¢ (86.40%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$25.6k
≋liquidity $
$41.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1510 · σ=0.0390 · range [0.0760, 0.2595] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +79.61%σ EXTREME 25.83%LAST 0.13650.25950.21360.16780.12190.0760μ = 0.1510max 0.2595min 0.0760dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 13.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8490 · σ=0.0390 · range [0.7405, 0.9240] · R²=0.002▼ FALLING -6.55%σ NORMAL 4.60%LAST 0.86350.92400.87810.83230.78640.7405μ = 0.8490max 0.9240min 0.7405dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 86.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0026 · σ=0.0289 · skew=1.41 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.96 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296302-4.38ppbin -4.38pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -4.38pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak1-2.83ppbin -2.83pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -2.83pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak5-1.29ppbin -1.29pp · n=5 · 41.7% peakbin -1.29pp · n=5 · 41.7% peak120.26ppbin 0.26pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.26pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak11.80ppbin 1.80pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 1.80pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak13.35ppbin 3.35pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 3.35pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak4.89pp16.44ppbin 6.44pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 6.44pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak7.98pp19.53ppbin 9.53pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 9.53pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.34 · kurt=3.07 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.54)
μ MEAN15.10¢95% CI: [13.57¢, 16.63¢]
σ STD DEV3.90ppσ² = 15.221 · CV = 25.83%
med MEDIAN15.55¢Q₁ 13.60¢ · Q₃ 15.65¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 18.35pp · IQR 2.05pp (1.349σ→5.26pp)
min 7.60¢Q₁ 13.60¢med 15.55¢Q₃ 15.65¢max 25.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.544right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.932mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.57
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.70
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.360within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.260lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.933strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.232fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.933
H = 0.933STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.360k=2+0.260k=3-0.222k=4+0.251k=5-0.0990+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.23)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.36 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.23)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1961527
SLUGwill-the-next-di…tzerland-861
CATEGORYWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (86¢)
PRIMARY · YES13.60¢implied prob 13.60% · decimal odds 7.35×
COUNTER · NO86.40¢implied prob 86.40% · decimal odds 1.16×
13.60¢
86.40¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME25.60k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY41.33k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (86¢)|primary − counter| = 0.728 · entropy 0.574 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 13.6%NO 86.4%YES p̂13.6%H = 0.574 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES7.35×(14¢)NO1.16×(86¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.574 bits (57% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
15days
10hrs
22min
15.43 days·θ = 19.113 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 13.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 86.4%)
current: $0.1360 · expected return per side: $0.86 on YES hit · $0.14 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.90% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 19.113 pp/day
now15.43d left
19.113 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.57d left
22.070 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.72d left
27.030 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.86d left
38.226 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.54d left
60.440 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 10.30% · worst -5.15% · typical |Δ| 1.78%MILD BULLISH +6.05%BEST+10.30%7hWORST-5.15%8hTYPICAL |Δ|1.78%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+6.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +2.62% · Σ +18.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -1.29% · Σ -10.30%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.26% · Σ -2.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +6.05%+18.35%0.00%0.55% · 1h0.55% · 1h0.55%1h1.80% · 2h1.80% · 2h1.80%2h6.60% · 3h6.60% · 3h6.60%3h-4.60% · 4h-4.60% · 4h-4.60%4h3.60% · 5h3.60% · 5h3.60%5h0.10% · 6h0.10% · 6h0.10%6h10.30% · 7h10.30% · 7h10.30%7h★ BEST-5.15% · 8h-5.15% · 8h-5.15%8h▼ WORST-0.05% · 9h-0.05% · 9h-0.05%9h-0.90% · 10h-0.90% · 10h-0.90%10h-3.60% · 11h-3.60% · 11h-3.60%11h-0.65% · 12h-0.65% · 12h-0.65%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-1.90% · 17h-1.90% · 17h-1.90%17h0.65% · 18h0.65% · 18h0.65%18h-0.80% · 19h-0.80% · 19h-0.80%19h0.40% · 20h0.40% · 20h0.40%20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h-0.65% · 22h-0.65% · 22h-0.65%22h0.15% · 23h0.15% · 23h0.15%23h0.10% · 24h0.10% · 24h0.10%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+18.35%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH54% up · 42% down · 4% flat
13 up bars · 10 down · best 10.30% · worst -5.15% · typical |Δ| 1.781%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +5.04%FINAL+5.04%MAX DD-12.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+19.07%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0504 · peak 1.1907 · range [1.0000, 1.1907]1.19071.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1907UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -12.00% · significant0%-12.00%▼ TROUGH -12.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -12.00%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -4.60%bar 5-7 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -12.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0504 (5.04%) · max DD -12.00% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-16.40 · σ=35.19UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -24.25 (-0.22σ vs μ)74.8537.430.00-37.43-74.85μ = -16.4033.4633.4653.5953.5927.4127.4111.4511.4523.6323.632.022.02-0.14-0.14-74.85-74.85-58.26-58.26-56.64-56.64-45.32-45.32-50.36-50.36-21.47-21.47-35.86-35.86-26.58-26.58-26.58-26.58-37.36-37.36-5.41-5.41-24.25-24.25v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -24.250 · range [-74.85, 53.59] · μ -16.396 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=244.7293 · σ=201.8526 · range [45.1541, 577.9922] · R²=0.736▼ FALLING -87.15%σ EXTREME 82.48%LAST 45.1541577.9922444.7827311.5731178.363645.1541μ = 244.7293max 577.9922min 45.1541dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.74μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 45.15% · range [45.15%, 577.99%] · μ 244.73% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.365 · σ=0.252MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.375 (-0.04σ vs μ)0.6450.3220.000-0.322-0.645μ = -0.365-0.645-0.645-0.442-0.442-0.623-0.623-0.456-0.456-0.441-0.441-0.335-0.335-0.322-0.322-0.261-0.2610.0430.0430.1220.1220.1330.133-0.063-0.063-0.437-0.437-0.574-0.574-0.611-0.611-0.582-0.582-0.479-0.479-0.592-0.592-0.375-0.375v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.375 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
25.2535
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.1874
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1008
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6846
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0802
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7624
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1674
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4138
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8100
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4180
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.754 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.07e-3 · top T=2.18h (26.7%) · top-3 cover 53.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.4e-32.6e-31.7e-38.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.75e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.75e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.66e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.66e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.41e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.41e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.25e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.25e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.17e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.17e-4 · 4.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.41e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.41e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.40e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.40e-4 · 7.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.56e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.56e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.88e-4 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.88e-4 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.03e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.03e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.41e-3 · 26.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.41e-3 · 26.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 18.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.39e-3 · 18.7% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 26.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.279e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3305 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.4 d · σ/bar 0.226pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.36ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1175 · n = 3305✓ n = 3305
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.226pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.11pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move15d
4.36pp
σ × √370.3798058333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.1175
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
13.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.37pp · ES₉₅ 0.47pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3305
VaR 95%
0.37pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.47pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
54.7pp
peak 27.9¢ → trough 12.7¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
13.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
7.353
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+635
$100 wins $635
FractionalUK
6.35 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$635.29
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 13.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.574 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.574 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.88 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.21 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
50174065312417252990355657388789647251950341701201280132414544358846012362511
NO token ID
40597295349234840547532464756672185765582850389590076630443598277539903723181
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:37:11 UTC
Snapshot age
358ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:37:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
776122be217a439b9f9f360e4b51824ec0dc3442f8e8dabde89712b25ae7dd21 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?12¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,273HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.4HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.88

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.136500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
805.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.190
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.188
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-861/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1547831339.41bp0.15800010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.35010215648.53bp0.64200059FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.72486543103.68bp0.96000091FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0914143302.98bp0.07300020FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0168358766.64bp0.00100043PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0168358766.64bp0.00100043PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,305 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1491.90%
σ per bar = 0.011269
Mean return (annualised)
-10414.81%
μ per bar = -0.000059
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
54.66%
peak 0.28 → trough 0.13 over 1834 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-switzerland-861/risk · same metrics, JSON