POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMICS

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

YES · live
37.5¢
NO · live
62.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649 · fresh · feed 8s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
46.81%
max drawdown
2.60%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.31%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.10%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.50
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
37.5¢
NO · live
62.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3020 · σ=0.0991 · range [0.1550, 0.3850] · R²=0.749▲ RISING +141.94%σ EXTREME 32.82%LAST 0.37500.38500.32750.27000.21250.1550μ = 0.3020max 0.3850min 0.1550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 37.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 37.5%NO 62.5%NO62.5%62.50¢ · odds 1/1.60
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.954 / 1.00 bits (95%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
37.5%37.5¢2.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
62.5%62.5¢1.60×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,600 · μ=108.3 · σ=221.0 · CV=2.04BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=80225450675900μ = 10890050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2600bp moved · peak 900bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7.7s
▲YES mid
37.50¢ (37.50%)
▼NO mid
62.50¢ (62.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$33.8k
≋liquidity $
$82.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3020 · σ=0.0991 · range [0.1550, 0.3850] · R²=0.749▲ RISING +141.94%σ EXTREME 32.82%LAST 0.37500.38500.32750.27000.21250.1550μ = 0.3020max 0.3850min 0.1550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 37.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6980 · σ=0.0991 · range [0.6150, 0.8450] · R²=0.749▼ FALLING -26.04%σ HIGH 14.20%LAST 0.62500.84500.78750.73000.67250.6150μ = 0.6980max 0.8450min 0.6150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 62.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0125 · σ=0.0209 · skew=2.37 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.88 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118403-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin -0.50pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak150.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin 0.50pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak21.50ppbin 1.50pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 1.50pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak12.50ppbin 2.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 2.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak13.50ppbin 3.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 3.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak4.50pp5.50pp16.50ppbin 6.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 6.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak7.50pp18.50ppbin 8.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 8.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.44 · kurt=5.32 · near 6 / mid 16 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.79 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.57σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.68)
μ MEAN30.20¢95% CI: [26.31¢, 34.09¢]
σ STD DEV9.91ppσ² = 98.250 · CV = 32.82%
med MEDIAN37.50¢Q₁ 16.00¢ · Q₃ 37.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 23.00pp · IQR 21.50pp (1.349σ→13.37pp)
min 15.50¢Q₁ 16.00¢med 37.50¢Q₃ 37.50¢max 38.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.682left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.468platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.74
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.62
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.32
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.519positive · momentum
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.003lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.789strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+8.279significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.789
H = 0.789STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★+0.519k=2-0.003k=3-0.010k=4+0.164k=5-0.0490+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.28)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=8.28)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2252245
SLUGwill-the-fed-inc…-meeting-649
CATEGORYEconomics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (63¢)
PRIMARY · YES37.50¢implied prob 37.50% · decimal odds 2.67×
COUNTER · NO62.50¢implied prob 62.50% · decimal odds 1.60×
37.50¢
62.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME33.80k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY82.59k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (63¢)|primary − counter| = 0.250 · entropy 0.954 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 37.5%NO 62.5%YES p̂37.5%H = 0.954 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.67×(38¢)NO1.60×(63¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.954 bits (95% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
89days
12hrs
01min
89.50 days·θ = 48.559 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 37.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 62.5%)
current: $0.3750 · expected return per side: $0.63 on YES hit · $0.38 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+44.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=9.91% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 48.559 pp/day
now89.50d left
48.559 pp/day×1.00
−25%67.13d left
56.071 pp/day×1.15
−50%44.75d left
68.673 pp/day×1.41
−75%22.38d left
97.118 pp/day×2.00
−90%8.95d left
153.558 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 9.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 1.08%MILD BULLISH +22.00%BEST+9.00%8hWORST-1.00%17hTYPICAL |Δ|1.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+22.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.93% · Σ +6.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +1.94% · Σ +15.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +22.00%+23.00%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h6.00% · 7h6.00% · 7h6.00%7h9.00% · 8h9.00% · 8h9.00%8h★ BEST2.50% · 9h2.50% · 9h2.50%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h1.50% · 11h1.50% · 11h1.50%11h3.50% · 12h3.50% · 12h3.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h-1.00% · 17h-1.00% · 17h-1.00%17h▼ WORST0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+15.50%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 13% down · 58% flat
7 up bars · 3 down · best 9.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 1.083%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +23.77% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+23.77%MAX DD-1.01%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+25.03%UNDERWATER11/25 (44%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.2377 · peak 1.2503 · range [1.0000, 1.2503]1.25031.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2503UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.01% · moderate0%-1.01%▼ TROUGH -1.01%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.01%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.01%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER44% of session · 11/25 bars
final equity 1.2377 (23.77%) · max DD -1.01% · time-under-water 11/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −4 (63% positive) · μ=34.16 · σ=42.82MIXED EDGELAST 0.00 (-0.80σ vs μ)107.4253.710.00-53.71-107.42μ = 34.1638.2138.2141.9541.9561.5361.5375.3175.3175.3175.3186.1286.12107.42107.4276.6576.6568.1668.1639.7339.7350.7050.7023.5523.55-22.83-22.83-22.83-22.83-11.74-11.740.000.00-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-38.21, 107.42] · μ 34.160 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=165.5283 · σ=132.7393 · range [0.0000, 367.7893] · R²=0.507▼ FALLING -100.00%σ EXTREME 80.19%LAST 0.0000367.7893275.8420183.894791.94730.0000μ = 165.5283max 367.7893min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 367.79%] · μ 165.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −9 (42% positive) · μ=-0.040 · σ=0.336CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.000 (+0.12σ vs μ)0.6820.3410.000-0.341-0.682μ = -0.040-0.033-0.0330.0440.0440.4340.4340.3450.3450.2370.2370.1930.1930.3550.355-0.008-0.008-0.152-0.1520.1670.1670.1880.188-0.104-0.104-0.619-0.619-0.583-0.583-0.682-0.682-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
75.0284
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.2366
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1424
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3437
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6074
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.9820
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3261
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0093
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
2.7009
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0069
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 1.822 → trending
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.06e-4 · top T=24.00h (30.0%) · top-3 cover 61.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-31.4e-39.1e-44.5e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.82e-3 · 30.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.82e-3 · 30.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.01e-3 · 16.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.01e-3 · 16.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.63e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.63e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.29e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.29e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.82e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.82e-4 · 12.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.85e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.85e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.33e-4 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.33e-4 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.14e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.14e-5 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.59e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.59e-6 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.43e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.43e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 1.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 1.7% energy50% by T=8.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 30.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.069e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3045 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 89.5 d · σ/bar 0.059pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.72ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2344 · n = 3045✓ n = 3045
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.059pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.29pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move90d
2.72pp
σ × √2148.0211225000003
Terminal variancebinary
0.2344
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
37.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.10pp · ES₉₅ 0.12pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3045
VaR 95%
0.10pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.12pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.9pp
peak 34.5¢ → trough 33.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
37.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+167
$100 wins $167
FractionalUK
1.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$166.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 37.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.954 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.954 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.42 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.68 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
63842529068710005716169325380315470359047749786610778647370693404952498013178
NO token ID
2881957189963819690709899387312951271986076905757701114514025622922000576600
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 11:58:36 UTC
Snapshot age
7.7s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 11:58:43 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e9f8fc1215c6a9a11ff7fc50ff5d1a0ac4bc0fc1fad6f4dff70642fa27845d5b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.7¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,968HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.94HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,743.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Economics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.375000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
266.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.748
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.120
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.387619336.52bp0.3900002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.398203618.75bp0.4000003FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.6984428625.12bp0.98000030FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.360321391.45bp0.3600002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.352087611.01bp0.3500003FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1524135935.64bp0.01000026PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,045 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
214.35%
σ per bar = 0.001619
Mean return (annualised)
4800.25%
μ per bar = 0.000027
Sharpe (rf=0)
22.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.90%
peak 0.34 → trough 0.34 over 66 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649/risk · same metrics, JSON