POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

YES · live
1.8¢
NO · live
98.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-person-a-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 105.88%
realized vol (ann.)
5.13%
max drawdown
5.41%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.34%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.14%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.41%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
105.88%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +105.88%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-person-a-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH8ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.8¢
NO · live
98.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0132 · σ=0.0046 · range [0.0085, 0.0185] · R²=0.785▲ RISING +105.88%σ EXTREME 35.06%LAST 0.01750.01850.01600.01350.01100.0085μ = 0.0132max 0.0185min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.8%NO 98.3%NO98.3%98.25¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.127 / 1.00 bits (13%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.8%1.8¢57.14×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.3%98.3¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=110 · μ=4.6 · σ=16.4 · CV=3.58BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12020406080μ = 58050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 110bp moved · peak 80bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
8ms
▲YES mid
1.75¢ (1.75%)
▼NO mid
98.25¢ (98.25%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$388.3k
≋liquidity $
$862.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0132 · σ=0.0046 · range [0.0085, 0.0185] · R²=0.785▲ RISING +105.88%σ EXTREME 35.06%LAST 0.01750.01850.01600.01350.01100.0085μ = 0.0132max 0.0185min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9868 · σ=0.0046 · range [0.9815, 0.9915] · R²=0.785▼ FALLING -0.91%σ LOW 0.47%LAST 0.98250.99150.98900.98650.98400.9815μ = 0.9868max 0.9915min 0.9815dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.78μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.25¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0016 · skew=4.21 (right-skewed) · kurt=16.60 (leptokurtic (fat tails))2116115021-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=21 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=21 · 100.0% peak10.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakbin 0.08pp · n=1 · 4.8% peak10.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 4.8% peak0.25pp0.33pp0.42pp0.50pp0.59pp0.67pp10.76ppbin 0.76pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakbin 0.76pp · n=1 · 4.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=4.27 · kurt=17.06 · near 6 / mid 12 / far 6 · OLS slope=0.57 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.65σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-2.03)
μ MEAN1.32¢95% CI: [1.14¢, 1.50¢]
σ STD DEV0.46ppσ² = 0.214 · CV = 35.06%
med MEDIAN1.65¢Q₁ 0.85¢ · Q₃ 1.75¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.00pp · IQR 0.90pp (1.349σ→0.62pp)
min 0.85¢Q₁ 0.85¢med 1.65¢Q₃ 1.75¢max 1.85¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.038approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-2.031platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.72
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.16
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.051within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.061lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.926strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+9.155significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.926
H = 0.926STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.051k=2-0.061k=3-0.055k=4+0.121k=5-0.0820+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.16)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.90very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.16)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID559682
SLUGwill-person-a-wi…l-nomination
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.75¢implied prob 1.75% · decimal odds 57.14×
COUNTER · NO98.25¢implied prob 98.25% · decimal odds 1.02×
1.75¢
98.25¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME388.29k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY862.43k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.965 · entropy 0.127 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.8%NO 98.3%YES p̂1.8%H = 0.127 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES57.14×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.127 bits (13% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2028-11-07 00:00 UTC
876days
07hrs
45min
876.32 days·θ = 2.264 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.3%)
current: $0.0175 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+438.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.46% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.264 pp/day
now876.32d left
2.264 pp/day×1.00
−25%657.24d left
2.614 pp/day×1.15
−50%438.16d left
3.201 pp/day×1.41
−75%219.08d left
4.527 pp/day×2.00
−90%87.63d left
7.158 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.80% · worst -0.05% · typical |Δ| 0.05%MILD BULLISH +0.90%BEST+0.80%12hWORST-0.05%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.90%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.10% · Σ +0.80%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.90%+1.00%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.80% · 12h0.80% · 12h0.80%12h★ BEST0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.15% · 16h0.15% · 16h0.15%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.05% · 21h-0.05% · 21h-0.05%21h▼ WORST-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.80%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH13% up · 8% down · 79% flat
3 up bars · 2 down · best 0.80% · worst -0.05% · typical |Δ| 0.046%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.90%FINAL+0.90%MAX DD-0.10%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.00%UNDERWATER4/25 (16%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0090 · peak 1.0100 · range [1.0000, 1.0100]1.01001.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0100UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.10% · shallow0%-0.10%▼ TROUGH -0.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.10%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.10%)RECOVERYongoing · 4 barsTIME UNDER WATER16% of session · 4/25 bars
final equity 1.0090 (0.90%) · max DD -0.10% · time-under-water 4/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −3 (53% positive) · μ=18.87 · σ=26.43MIXED EDGELAST -20.72 (-1.50σ vs μ)51.5225.760.00-25.76-51.52μ = 18.870.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2146.3146.3146.3146.3138.2138.2151.5251.5251.5251.5233.9533.95-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -20.722 · range [-20.72, 51.52] · μ 18.868 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=11.3822 · σ=13.4295 · range [0.0000, 30.5680] · R²=0.005▬ FLATσ EXTREME 117.99%LAST 3.522830.568022.926015.28407.64200.0000μ = 11.3822max 30.5680min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 3.52% · range [0.00%, 30.57%] · μ 11.38% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −10 (16% positive) · μ=-0.071 · σ=0.207MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.225 (+1.43σ vs μ)0.4240.2120.000-0.212-0.424μ = -0.0710.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.296-0.296-0.095-0.095-0.233-0.233-0.333-0.333-0.424-0.424-0.079-0.0790.3430.3430.2840.2840.2250.225v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.225 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
546.7726
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.9426
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9651
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9035
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7876
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.5275
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1266
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (2 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8015
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0071
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.1115
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9112
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.966 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.79e-6 · top T=4.00h (12.6%) · top-3 cover 34.7%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)4.2e-63.2e-62.1e-61.1e-60.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 3.75e-6 · 11.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.75e-6 · 11.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.96e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.96e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.82e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.82e-6 · 5.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.84e-6 · 8.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.84e-6 · 8.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.38e-6 · 7.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.38e-6 · 7.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 12.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.21e-6 · 12.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.66e-6 · 10.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.66e-6 · 10.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.97e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.97e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.76e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.39e-6 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.39e-6 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.38e-6 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.38e-6 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.38e-6 · 10.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.38e-6 · 10.1% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 12.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.350e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3820 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 876.3 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.26ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0172 · n = 3820✓ n = 3820
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move876d
1.26pp
σ × √21031.75180972222
Terminal variancebinary
0.0172
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3820
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
5.4pp
peak 1.8¢ → trough 1.8¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
57.143
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+5614
$100 wins $5614
FractionalUK
56.14 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5614.29
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.127 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.127 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.84 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
11343337042526652606304508556838778144915122118685013460142819817079620240439
NO token ID
19117858613830240204442128472263675815111662346578092643025820800380629933012
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:14:53 UTC
Snapshot age
8ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:14:53 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
831c8efc99f33b3c38c9586afa1f1de1f5657b8ef0721c13e62392decbb0e1fe · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.017500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
571.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.362
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.647
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-person-a-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0193931081.95bp0.0200003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0260254871.61bp0.02900010FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.11025653003.22bp0.71000070FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0101144220.50bp0.00800010FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0064386321.12bp0.00600012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0036347923.58bp0.00100017PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,820 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
895.06%
σ per bar = 0.006760
Mean return (annualised)
33145.73%
μ per bar = 0.000189
Sharpe (rf=0)
37.03
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.41%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 663 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-person-a-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination/risk · same metrics, JSON